Leganes vs Cordoba
Next match: Fri, 16 Oct 2026 • 18:30 UTC+3 • Round 10 • Estadio Municipal de Butarque • ☁️ 21.2°C, 2 km/h overcast
Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly — confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home | 76% | 36.6% | 2.32 | Betano | 42.9% | -6.3 pp |
| Double Chance | 1X | 68% | 68% | 1.42 | Betano | 68.1% | -0.1 pp |
| BTTS | No | 82% | 50.5% | 2.50 | 1xBet | 38.3% | +12.2 pp |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 83% | 52.3% | 2.39 | 1xBet | 41.6% | +10.7 pp |
| Correct Score | 1-0 | 71% | 12% | 10.50 | Marathonbet | 4.9% | +7.1 pp |
| Draw (value pick) | Draw | 63% | 27.3% | 3.76 | 1xBet | 25.2% | +2.1 pp |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~8.4 exp.) | Under 9.5 | 64% | 54.7% | — | — | — | — |
⚽ Model expected goals: Leganes 0.95 – 0.84 Cordoba · expected total 1.79
Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.
🧠 Match Preview
The model leans toward the hosts, giving Leganes a 36.6 percent win probability at odds of 2.32, with a confidence reading of 76. Form is hardly inspiring: Leganes arrive on LLWLD, Cordoba on LWLWL. The expected goals picture is tight, with Leganes at 0.9469 and Cordoba at 0.8398, though Cordoba's recent attacking output of 1.39 xG away from home is worth noting against Leganes' 0.88 at home. Neither side reports injuries, so both should be close to full strength.
The headline tip is a home win, but the safer angle is the double chance at 68 percent on 1X. Under 2.5 goals carries a 52.3 percent probability at odds of 2.39, and the model's correct-score lean is 1-0 at 14.53 percent, with 2-0 next at 7.51. Both teams to score is tipped No at 50.5 percent, priced at 2.5. Corners point to Under 9.5, with an expected 8.4 and a 54.7 percent probability. The draw is rated 27.3 percent with a confidence of 63, and the recent head-to-head offers little separation: a 2-1 Cordoba win in February 2026 and a 0-0 draw in December 2025.
The honest caveat is that a 36.6 percent home probability is far from dominant, and with two low-scoring, inconsistent teams, the draw at 27.3 percent is a genuine threat to any single-result bet.
Updated 12 Oct 2026, 16:09 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Leganes
Cordoba
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Leganes
Cordoba
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks — Segunda División
Leganes
Cordoba
Rank among 22 Segunda División teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Leganes at home · Cordoba away — the split that matters for this fixture.
Leganes (home)
Cordoba (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Cordoba 1 win · 1 draw · Leganes 0 wins · avg 1.5 goals · BTTS in 1 of 2
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Feb 2026 | Cordoba | 2–1 | Leganes | Segunda División |
| 07 Dec 2025 | Leganes | 0–0 | Cordoba | Segunda División |
📈 Recent Form
Leganes
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Cadiz | Away | 0–4 | L |
| 28/09 | Castellón | Home | 0–2 | L |
| 20/09 | Granada CF | Home | 3–2 | W |
| 13/09 | Tenerife | Away | 0–2 | L |
| 04/09 | Las Palmas | Away | 0–0 | D |
Cordoba
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Eldense | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 05/10 | Tenerife | Home | 3–2 | W |
| 27/09 | Valladolid | Away | 1–3 | L |
| 18/09 | Albacete | Away | 2–1 | W |
| 12/09 | Almeria | Home | 0–2 | L |
📊 Season Comparison — Segunda División
Leganes #15 · 11 pts — Cordoba #18 · 9 pts
Leganes
Cordoba
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Leganes
Cordoba
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
More: Segunda División predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws