Girona vs FC Andorra
Next match: Sun, 18 Oct 2026 • 16:30 UTC+3 • Round 10 • Estadio Municipal de Montilivi • 🌧 17.9°C, 5 km/h, 0.1mm rain
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home | 84% | 57.3% | — | — | — | — |
| Double Chance | 1X | 74% | 76% | — | — | — | — |
| BTTS | Yes | 82% | 50.4% | — | — | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81% | 49.9% | — | — | — | — |
| Correct Score | 2-1 | 64% | 7.8% | — | — | — | — |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.7 exp.) | Over 9.5 | 61% | 52.5% | — | — | — | — |
⚽ Model expected goals: Girona 1.96 – 1.15 FC Andorra · expected total 3.11
Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market.
🧠 Match Preview
Form offers some nuance. Girona's last five read DDWWL, so they have been hard to beat without being ruthless, while Andorra's WDWLL suggests a side capable of a result but prone to lapses. The goal expectations tell the sharper story: Girona are projected at 1.9637 for the match against Andorra's 1.149, though recent xG actually favours the visitors, 1.72 to 1.29. That tension is worth respecting.
The goals markets are genuinely tight. Over 2.5 sits at 49.9 percent and both teams to score at 50.4 percent, so neither is a strong standalone play; the model's lean is Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes, but only just. The correct-score picture points to 2-1 as the single most likely outcome at 9.9 percent, ahead of 2-0 at 8.61 and 1-0 at 7.76. Corners look more convincing, with Over 9.5 at 52.5 percent against an expected 9.7.
The value question hinges on price. No odds are quoted here, so the edge only exists if bookmakers offer better than the model's implied numbers. The honest caveat is Andorra's superior recent xG and Girona's draw-heavy form, which makes the 1X safer than the outright home win.
Updated 13 Oct 2026, 04:09 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Girona
FC Andorra
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Girona
FC Andorra
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks — Segunda División
Girona
FC Andorra
No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.
Rank among 22 Segunda División teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Girona at home · FC Andorra away — the split that matters for this fixture.
Girona (home)
FC Andorra (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
FC Andorra 0 wins · 1 draw · Girona 1 win · avg 3 goals · BTTS in 1 of 2
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jul 2023 | Girona | 2–2 | FC Andorra | Friendlies Clubs |
| 27 Jul 2022 | Girona | 2–0 | FC Andorra | Friendlies Clubs |
📈 Recent Form
Girona
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10 | Tenerife | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 04/10 | Mallorca | Home | 0–0 | D |
| 25/09 | Albacete | Home | 2–0 | W |
| 19/09 | Cadiz | Away | 2–1 | W |
| 12/09 | Castellón | Home | 1–2 | L |
FC Andorra
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Castellón | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 04/10 | Sabadell | Away | 0–0 | D |
| 26/09 | Granada CF | Away | 3–2 | W |
| 19/09 | Sporting Gijon | Home | 1–3 | L |
| 12/09 | Real Sociedad II | Home | 1–3 | L |
📊 Season Comparison — Segunda División
Girona #7 · 15 pts — FC Andorra #17 · 10 pts
Girona
FC Andorra
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Girona
FC Andorra
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
More: Segunda División predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws