Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe

Next match: Mon, 26 Oct 2026 • 18:30 UTC+3 • Round 9 • Rams Park • 🌤 16.4°C, 9 km/h mostly clear

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

Market	Tip	Confidence	Probability	Odds	Bookmaker	Market implied	Edge
Match Result (1X2)	Home	79%	43.3%	—	—	—	—
Double Chance	1X	72%	72.4%	—	—	—	—
BTTS	Yes	80%	48%	—	—	—	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	81%	48.6%	—	—	—	—
Correct Score	1-0	64%	7.7%	—	—	—	—
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.7 exp.)	Over 9.5	64%	54.6%	—	—	—	—

⚽ Model expected goals: Galatasaray 1.53 – 1.08 Fenerbahçe · expected total 2.61

🧠 Match Preview

The Istanbul derby lands at Rams Park with Galatasaray top of the Süper Lig on 16 points from 7 games, while Fenerbahçe sit fourth on 13 from the same number of matches. Bragging rights and early-season momentum are both on the line.

The model leans toward the hosts, giving Galatasaray a 43.3 percent win probability at 79 percent confidence, with the double chance 1X rated at 72.4 percent. Recent form is mixed: Galatasaray arrive on WDLWL, Fenerbahçe on LWWWD. Expected goals favour the home side at 1.5346 against 1.076, though the recent xG picture flips — 1.66 for Galatasaray versus 2.63 for Fenerbahçe. Both squads are heavily depleted, with Galatasaray missing seven players and Fenerbahçe eleven.

Goals markets look tight. Over 2.5 carries a 48.6 percent probability and both teams to score 48 percent, so neither is a standout. The correct-score cluster points to 1-0 at 9.8 percent, 2-1 at 9.07 and 2-0 at 8.43, with the headline pick 1-0 at 7.7 percent. Corners offer the cleaner angle: over 9.5 at 54.6 percent against an expected 10.7.

Value hunting means comparing these model numbers to whatever the bookmakers post — the snapshot lists no odds, so the edge only exists if prices beat these probabilities. The honest caveat is the injury list: with eighteen players absent across both sides, form and xG samples may understate how much the lineups actually change this derby.

Updated 15 Oct 2026, 10:10 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Galatasaray

Form (last 5)

WKasımpaşa (H) 3–1 · 09/10/2026DPendikspor (A) 3–3 · 02/10/2026LTrabzonspor (A) 0–4 · 19/09/2026 WKocaelispor (H) 1–0 · 13/09/2026LSporting CP (A) 1–3 · 09/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)2.30

Goals conceded (season avg)1.60

Win streak (best this season)4

xG for (recent avg)1.41

xG against (recent avg)1.26

Elo strength rating1708

Players out7

Fenerbahçe

Form (last 5)

LAston Villa (A) 0–6 · 14/10/2026 WRizespor (A) 3–0 · 10/10/2026WTuran (A) 2–0 · 03/10/2026WEyüpspor (H) 8–0 · 20/09/2026 DGaziantep FK (A) 0–0 · 14/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)2.70

Goals conceded (season avg)0.90

Win streak (best this season)2

xG for (recent avg)2.13

xG against (recent avg)0.65

Elo strength rating1706

Players out11

GalatasarayFenerbahçe

WKasımpaşa (H) 3–1 · 09/10/2026DPendikspor (A) 3–3 · 02/10/2026LTrabzonspor (A) 0–4 · 19/09/2026 WKocaelispor (H) 1–0 · 13/09/2026LSporting CP (A) 1–3 · 09/09/2026

LAston Villa (A) 0–6 · 14/10/2026 WRizespor (A) 3–0 · 10/10/2026WTuran (A) 2–0 · 03/10/2026WEyüpspor (H) 8–0 · 20/09/2026 DGaziantep FK (A) 0–0 · 14/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)

2.30

2.70

Goals conceded (season avg)

1.60

0.90

Win streak (best this season)

xG for (recent avg)

1.41

2.13

xG against (recent avg)

1.26

0.65

Elo strength rating

1708

1706

Players out

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Galatasaray

BTTS

4/6

Over 2.5

5/6

Scored

5/6

Clean sheets

1/6

Fenerbahçe

BTTS

1/6

Over 2.5

3/6

Scored

4/6

Clean sheets

4/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — Süper Lig

Galatasaray

3rd best attack (2.30 goals/game) 3rd best BTTS rate (67%) 2nd best Over 2.5 rate (83%)

Fenerbahçe

Best attack (2.70 goals/game) 2nd best defence (0.90 conceded/game) Best clean sheets (4)

Rank among 18 Süper Lig teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Galatasaray at home · Fenerbahçe away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Galatasaray (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–1D–0L

W 3

D 1

Played4

Goals scored (avg)2.30

Goals conceded (avg)1.30

Clean sheets1

Failed to score0

Fenerbahçe (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–1D–1L

W 2

D 1

L 1

Played4

Goals scored (avg)1.50

Goals conceded (avg)0.50

Clean sheets3

Failed to score1

Galatasaray (home)Fenerbahçe (away)

W 3

D 1

W 2

D 1

L 1

Played

Goals scored (avg)

2.30

1.50

Goals conceded (avg)

1.30

0.50

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0

7.7%

2–1

7.1%

2–0

6.6%

3–1

3.6%

3–0

3.4%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Fenerbahçe 2 wins · 3 draws · Galatasaray 5 wins · avg 1.9 goals · BTTS in 3 of 10

Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
26 Apr 2026	Galatasaray	3–0	Fenerbahçe	Süper Lig
10 Jan 2026	Galatasaray	0–2	Fenerbahçe	Super Cup
01 Dec 2025	Fenerbahçe	1–1	Galatasaray	Süper Lig
02 Apr 2025	Fenerbahçe	1–2	Galatasaray	Türkiye Kupası
24 Feb 2025	Galatasaray	0–0	Fenerbahçe	Süper Lig
21 Sep 2024	Fenerbahçe	1–3	Galatasaray	Süper Lig
19 May 2024	Galatasaray	0–1	Fenerbahçe	Süper Lig
07 Apr 2024	Galatasaray	1–0	Fenerbahçe	Super Cup
24 Dec 2023	Fenerbahçe	0–0	Galatasaray	Süper Lig
04 Jun 2023	Galatasaray	3–0	Fenerbahçe	Süper Lig

📈 Recent Form

Galatasaray

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
09/10	Kasımpaşa	Home	3–1	W
02/10	Pendikspor	Away	3–3	D
19/09	Trabzonspor	Away	0–4	L
13/09	Kocaelispor	Home	1–0	W
09/09	Sporting CP	Away	1–3	L

Fenerbahçe

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
14/10	Aston Villa	Away	0–6	L
10/10	Rizespor	Away	3–0	W
03/10	Turan	Away	2–0	W
20/09	Eyüpspor	Home	8–0	W
14/09	Gaziantep FK	Away	0–0	D

📊 Season Comparison — Süper Lig

Galatasaray #1 · 16 pts — Fenerbahçe #4 · 13 pts

Galatasaray

Wins–Draws–Losses5W–1D–1L

W 5

D 1

L 1

Played7

Goals scored (avg)2.30

Goals conceded (avg)1.60

Clean sheets2

Failed to score1

Yellow cards12

Red cards2

xG for (avg)1.41

xG against (avg)1.26

Corners for (avg)7.50

Penalties (scored/missed)1/0

Fenerbahçe

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–1D–2L

W 4

D 1

L 2

Played7

Goals scored (avg)2.70

Goals conceded (avg)0.90

Clean sheets4

Failed to score1

Yellow cards10

Red cards0

xG for (avg)2.13

xG against (avg)0.65

Corners for (avg)5.00

Penalties (scored/missed)1/1

GalatasarayFenerbahçe

W 5

D 1

L 1

W 4

D 1

L 2

Played

Goals scored (avg)

2.30

2.70

Goals conceded (avg)

1.60

0.90

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Yellow cards

Red cards

xG for (avg)

1.41

2.13

xG against (avg)

1.26

0.65

Corners for (avg)

7.50

5.00

Penalties (scored/missed)

1/0

1/1

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Galatasaray

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Fenerbahçe

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

🏥 Injuries & Suspensions

Galatasaray

❌ G. Guvenc — Muscle Injury
❌ R. Leao — Muscle Injury
❌ M. Lemina — Muscle Injury
❌ V. Osimhen — Groin Injury
❌ W. Singo — Thigh Injury
❌ L. Ugochukwu — Red Card
❌ L. Torreira — Red Card

Fenerbahçe

❌ A. Diouf — Lacking Match Fitness
❌ Ederson — Illness
❌ M. Gunok — Muscle Injury
❌ A. Musaba — Injury
❌ J. Oosterwolde — Achilles Tendon Injury
❌ C. Soyuncu — Injury
❌ D. Livakovic — Transfer negotiations
❌ K. Akturkoglu — Concussion
❌ M. Asensio — Muscle Injury
❌ Talisca — Inactive
❌ M. Muldur — Knee Injury

More: Süper Lig predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws