Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe
Next match: Wed, 14 Oct 2026 • 19:00 UTC+3 • League Stage - 2 • Villa Park • ☁️ 14.8°C, 18 km/h overcast
Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly — confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home | 84% | 58% | 1.74 | 1xBet | 60.5% | -2.5 pp |
| Double Chance | 1X | 73% | 74.3% | 1.21 | Betano | 82.9% | -8.6 pp |
| BTTS | No | 83% | 53.2% | 2.25 | Betfair | 42.6% | +10.6 pp |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 83% | 53.7% | 2.32 | Pinnacle | 42.9% | +10.8 pp |
| Correct Score | 1-0 | 73% | 13% | 9.00 | Bet365 | 6.1% | +6.9 pp |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.9 exp.) | Over 9.5 | 61% | 52.8% | 1.65 | Betfair | 57.7% | -4.9 pp |
⚽ Model expected goals: Aston Villa 1.17 – 0.76 Fenerbahçe · expected total 1.93
Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.
🧠 Match Preview
The model leans clearly toward the hosts. Villa's recent form reads DWWWL, and their recent expected goals of 1.61 dwarf Fenerbahçe's defensive outlook, with the away side's recent xG of 2.63 flattering a team that arrives with a punishing injury list. The visitors are missing a long cast including M. Asensio, M. Guendouzi, K. Akturkoglu and Diego Carlos, while Villa's absences (M. Cisse, L. Goretzka, A. Onana and others) are less damaging. The single recent head-to-head backs the home side too: Fenerbahçe 0-1 Aston Villa on 22 Jan 2026.
The headline tip is a home win at 58% probability and odds of 1.74, with double chance 1X at 74.3% offering a safer route. Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 53.7% (odds 2.32), and BTTS No at 53.2% (odds 2.25) fits a low-scoring script. The 1-0 correct score carries 13% probability, with 1-0 at 15.64 in the top scores. Corners Over 9.5 sits at 52.8% with an expected 9.9.
The honest caveat: those Under and BTTS No calls are only marginally above a coin flip, and Fenerbahçe's recent attacking xG of 2.63 warns that the model's low away goal expectation of 0.7631 could be tested if the visitors click.
Updated 12 Oct 2026, 16:09 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Aston Villa
Fenerbahçe
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Aston Villa
Fenerbahçe
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks — UEFA Champions League
Aston Villa
Fenerbahçe
No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.
Rank among 36 UEFA Champions League teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Aston Villa at home · Fenerbahçe away — the split that matters for this fixture.
Aston Villa (home)
Fenerbahçe (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Aston Villa 1 win · 0 draws · Fenerbahçe 0 wins · avg 1 goals · BTTS in 0 of 1
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jan 2026 | Fenerbahçe | 0–1 | Aston Villa | UEFA Europa League |
📈 Recent Form
Aston Villa
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Brentford | Home | 2–2 | D |
| 02/10 | Sevilla | Away | 3–1 | W |
| 19/09 | Tottenham | Away | 3–2 | W |
| 16/09 | Coventry | Away | 3–1 | W |
| 12/09 | Nottingham Forest | Home | 1–2 | L |
Fenerbahçe
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Rizespor | Away | 3–0 | W |
| 03/10 | Turan | Away | 2–0 | W |
| 20/09 | Eyüpspor | Home | 8–0 | W |
| 14/09 | Gaziantep FK | Away | 0–0 | D |
| 10/09 | AS Roma | Home | 1–1 | D |
📊 Season Comparison — UEFA Champions League
Aston Villa #9 · 3 pts — Fenerbahçe #20 · 1 pts
Aston Villa
Fenerbahçe
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Aston Villa
Fenerbahçe
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🏥 Injuries & Suspensions
Aston Villa
- ❌ M. Cisse — Off the roster
- ❌ L. Goretzka — Knee Injury
- ❌ T. Harwood-Bellis — Off the roster
- ❌ B. Madjo — Ankle Injury
- ❌ J. Manzambi — Knee Injury
- ❌ A. Onana — Knee Injury
- ❌ I. Maatsen — Ankle Injury
- ❓ M. Ruggeri (doubtful) — Injury
Fenerbahçe
- ❌ M. Asensio — Muscle Injury
- ❌ A. Diouf — Off the roster
- ❌ A. Fall — Off the roster
- ❌ M. Guendouzi — Red Card
- ❌ J. Oosterwolde — Achilles Tendon Injury
- ❌ M. Yandas — Off the roster
- ❌ M. Muldur — Knee Injury
- ❌ K. Akturkoglu — Concussion
- ❌ Diego Carlos — Inactive
- ❌ M. Gunok — Muscle Injury
- ❌ O. Mimovic — Inactive
- ❌ Rodrigo Becao — Inactive
- ❌ C. Soyuncu — Injury
- ❌ C. Under — Inactive
- ❌ A. Yesilyurt — Inactive
- ❌ E. Demir — Inactive
- ❌ O. Fayed — Inactive
- ❌ D. Livakovic — Transfer negotiations
More: UEFA Champions League predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws