Predictions β†’ Usa Major League Soccer

Los Angeles FC vs Austin

Next match: Thu, 15 Oct 2026 β€’ 02:30 UTC+3 β€’ Round 29 β€’ BMO Stadium β€’ β˜€οΈ 23.4Β°C, 9 km/h clear

PREDICTLIX BEST BET
Over/Under 2.5 β€” Under 2.5
Model 52.7% Β· Market best price β‰ˆ 41.2% Β· Edge +13.2 pp
Best odds 2.43 Pinnacle 2.43Betano 2.42Bet365 2.35
Bet this pick β†’
ΒΌ Kelly sizing: 4.8% of bank

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly β€” confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 1.45 β†’ 1.47 β–²1% 89% 70.2% 1.47 Betano 68.6% +1.6 pp
Double Chance 1X 77% 80% 1.13 BetVictor 86.9% -6.9 pp
BTTS No 82% 51% 2.05 William Hill 46.1% +4.9 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 83% 52.9% 2.43 Pinnacle 39.7% +13.2 pp
Correct Score 1-0 71% 12% 9.00 Bet365 4.6% +7.4 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~13.2 exp.) Over 9.5 69% 59% 1.40 Betano 66.7% -7.7 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Los Angeles FC 1.53 – 0.74 Austin Β· expected total 2.27

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Los Angeles FC host Austin at BMO Stadium in a Regular Season round 29 fixture, with the home side sitting 6th on 42 points from 29 games and the visitors 13th on 31 points from 28. The table gap frames this as a home match to lose, and the model agrees, pricing LAFC at 70.2 percent for the win with confidence of 89.

The underlying numbers back that up. LAFC's recent expected goals sit at 1.56 against Austin's 0.81, and the goal projections split 1.5187 to 0.7393 in the home side's favour. Form is mixed rather than dominant, though: LAFC arrive on LDLWD, while Austin have ground out DDWDD. The head-to-head is genuinely awkward for the favourite, with Austin winning two of the last five meetings, including a 1-0 at BMO Stadium in March 2025 and a 0-0 in March 2026.

The primary tip is a home win at 1.47. Double chance 1X carries 80 percent. For bettors hunting value, the model leans No on both teams to score at 51.1 percent, priced 2.05, and Under 2.5 goals at 53.1 percent, priced 2.43 β€” both offer more juice than the straight home win. The most likely correct score is 1-0 at 14.72 percent, followed by 2-0 at 12.07 and 2-1 at 8.92. Corners look active, with an expected 13.2 and Over 9.5 at 59 percent.

The honest caveat: both squads list extensive injury absences, and Austin's recent record in this fixture shows they can frustrate LAFC. A low-scoring home win is the model's read, but the 1-0 and 0-0 history here means the Under and BTTS No angles carry real risk if the game opens up late.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:09 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Los Angeles FC

Form (last 5)
LFC Dallas (A) 0–1 Β· 27/09/2026DSan Jose Earthquakes (A) 2–2 Β· 19/09/2026LSporting Kansas City (A) 1–3 Β· 13/09/2026WNew York Red Bulls (H) 2–0 Β· 10/09/2026DReal Salt Lake (A) 2–2 Β· 06/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.50
Goals conceded (season avg)1.10
Win streak (best this season)4
xG for (recent avg)1.56
xG against (recent avg)1.51
Elo strength rating1564
Players out19

Austin

Form (last 5)
DSan Diego (H) 3–3 Β· 27/09/2026DFC Dallas (A) 0–0 Β· 20/09/2026WVancouver Whitecaps (A) 2–1 Β· 13/09/2026DColorado Rapids (H) 1–1 Β· 10/09/2026DSan Jose Earthquakes (H) 1–1 Β· 06/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.30
Goals conceded (season avg)1.70
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)0.66
xG against (recent avg)1.73
Elo strength rating1529
Players out13
Los Angeles FCAustin
Goals scored (season avg)
1.50
1.30
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.10
1.70
Win streak (best this season)
4
2
xG for (recent avg)
1.56
0.66
xG against (recent avg)
1.51
1.73
Elo strength rating
1564
1529
Players out
19
13

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Los Angeles FC

Winless 3
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Austin

Unbeaten 6
BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Major League Soccer

Los Angeles FC

2nd best defence (1.10 conceded/game) Best clean sheets (13)

Austin

2nd best BTTS rate (83%)

Rank among 30 Major League Soccer teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Los Angeles FC at home Β· Austin away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Los Angeles FC (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses8W–2D–3L
W 8
D 2
L 3
Played13
Goals scored (avg)1.90
Goals conceded (avg)0.80
Clean sheets8
Failed to score2

Austin (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–4D–7L
W 3
D 4
L 7
Played14
Goals scored (avg)1.10
Goals conceded (avg)2.30
Clean sheets1
Failed to score5
Los Angeles FC (home)Austin (away)
W 8
D 2
L 3
W 3
D 4
L 7
Played
13
14
Goals scored (avg)
1.90
1.10
Goals conceded (avg)
0.80
2.30
Clean sheets
8
1
Failed to score
2
5

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
12%
2–0
9.9%
2–1
7.4%
3–0
5.1%
3–1
3.8%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Austin 2 wins Β· 3 draws Β· Los Angeles FC 5 wins Β· avg 2.5 goals Β· BTTS in 5 of 10

2
3
5
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
22 Mar 2026 Austin 0–0 Los Angeles FC Major League Soccer
03 Nov 2025 Austin 1–4 Los Angeles FC Major League Soccer
30 Oct 2025 Los Angeles FC 2–1 Austin Major League Soccer
12 Oct 2025 Austin 1–0 Los Angeles FC Major League Soccer
15 Mar 2025 Los Angeles FC 0–1 Austin Major League Soccer
19 Sep 2024 Los Angeles FC 1–1 Austin Major League Soccer
08 Aug 2024 Los Angeles FC 2–0 Austin Leagues Cup
20 Jun 2024 Austin 1–1 Los Angeles FC Major League Soccer
08 Oct 2023 Austin 2–4 Los Angeles FC Major League Soccer
08 Apr 2023 Los Angeles FC 3–0 Austin Major League Soccer

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Los Angeles FC

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
27/09 FC Dallas Away 0–1 L
19/09 San Jose Earthquakes Away 2–2 D
13/09 Sporting Kansas City Away 1–3 L
10/09 New York Red Bulls Home 2–0 W
06/09 Real Salt Lake Away 2–2 D

Austin

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
27/09 San Diego Home 3–3 D
20/09 FC Dallas Away 0–0 D
13/09 Vancouver Whitecaps Away 2–1 W
10/09 Colorado Rapids Home 1–1 D
06/09 San Jose Earthquakes Home 1–1 D

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Major League Soccer

Los Angeles FC #6 Β· 42 pts β€”  Austin #13 Β· 31 pts

Los Angeles FC

Wins–Draws–Losses11W–9D–9L
W 11
D 9
L 9
Played29
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.10
Clean sheets13
Failed to score6
Yellow cards50
Red cards1
xG for (avg)1.56
xG against (avg)1.51
Corners for (avg)7.90
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0

Austin

Wins–Draws–Losses7W–10D–11L
W 7
D 10
L 11
Played28
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)1.70
Clean sheets5
Failed to score6
Yellow cards54
Red cards2
xG for (avg)0.66
xG against (avg)1.73
Corners for (avg)4.70
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0
Los Angeles FCAustin
W 11
D 9
L 9
W 7
D 10
L 11
Played
29
28
Goals scored (avg)
1.50
1.30
Goals conceded (avg)
1.10
1.70
Clean sheets
13
5
Failed to score
6
6
Yellow cards
50
54
Red cards
1
2
xG for (avg)
1.56
0.66
xG against (avg)
1.51
1.73
Corners for (avg)
7.90
4.70
Penalties (scored/missed)
1/0
1/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Los Angeles FC

5
0-15
4
4
16-30
7
4
31-45
10
5
46-60
7
7
61-75
5
6
76-90
9
scored conceded

Austin

4
0-15
6
6
16-30
6
5
31-45
3
6
46-60
4
5
61-75
3
19
76-90
15
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Los Angeles FC

  • ❌ J. Ebobisse β€” Leg Injury
  • ❌ Igor Jesus β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ A. Long β€” Achilles Tendon Injury
  • ❌ J. Shaffelburg β€” Groin Injury
  • ❌ L. Dellavalle β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ S. Eustaquio β€” Leg Injury
  • ❌ A. Boudri β€” Leg Injury
  • ❌ D. Bouanga β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ S. Palencia β€” Injury
  • ❌ H. Lloris β€” Leg Injury
  • ❌ T. Tillman β€” Leg Injury
  • ❌ T. Hasal β€” Arm Injury
  • ❌ D. Martinez β€” Leg Injury
  • ❌ R. Porteous β€” Leg Injury
  • ❌ E. Segura β€” Leg Injury
  • ❌ M. Choiniere β€” International duty
  • ❌ J. Terry β€” International duty
  • ❌ L. Walta β€” International duty
  • ❌ C. Carter β€” Arm Injury

Austin

  • ❌ M. Desler β€” Groin Injury
  • ❌ B. Vazquez β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ O. Wolff β€” Groin Injury
  • ❌ R. Taylor β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ Guilherme Biro β€” Red Card
  • ❌ D. Pereira β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ J. Nelson β€” Leg Injury
  • ❌ B. Hines-Ike β€” Injury
  • ❌ M. Uzuni β€” Lower-Body Injury
  • ❌ J. Bell β€” Pelvis Injury
  • ❌ P. Placheta β€” Lower-Body Injury
  • ❌ J. Rosales β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Z. Kolmanic β€” Thigh Injury

More: Major League Soccer predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws