Predictions β†’ Usa Major League Soccer

Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte

Next match: Sat, 17 Oct 2026 β€’ 18:30 UTC+3 β€’ Round 30 β€’ Subaru Park β€’ β›… 10.2Β°C, 7 km/h partly cloudy

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 88% 67% 1.57 Betano 63.8% +3.2 pp
Double Chance 1X 78% 80.6% 1.18 BetVictor 82.9% -2.3 pp
BTTS Yes 81% 49.1% 1.45 Betano 65.5% -16.4 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 81% 49.8% 1.38 Betano 69.9% -20.1 pp
Correct Score 1-0 67% 9.9% 13.00 Bet365 5.3% +4.6 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.6 exp.) Over 9.5 63% 54.4% 1.75 Betano 53.6% +0.8 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Philadelphia Union 1.75 – 0.83 Charlotte Β· expected total 2.58

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Philadelphia Union host Charlotte at Subaru Park in a Regular Season - 30 clash, and the model is firmly on the home side. The Union arrive on a perfect WWWWW run, while Charlotte's LWDWD form is far less convincing, and the underlying numbers back up that gap: Philadelphia's recent expected goals sit at 1.98 against Charlotte's 1.21, with the model projecting 1.7484 goals for the hosts and just 0.8307 for the visitors.

That attacking edge shapes the tips. The home win is priced at 1.57 with a 67 percent model probability and 88 confidence, while the double chance 1X lands at 80.6 percent for those wanting a safer route. Both teams to score is a coin-flip at 49.1 percent and odds of 1.45, and Over 2.5 goals sits at 49.8 percent with odds of 1.38 β€” neither offers obvious value. The correct-score market points to 1-0 as the most likely outcome at 9.9 percent, with 2-0 and 2-1 close behind. Corners look interesting: Over 9.5 is tipped at 54.4 percent with an expected 10.6.

The honest caveat is the head-to-head. Charlotte have won three of the last five meetings, including 2-1 and 2-0 victories in 2026 and 2025, so recent history warns against treating this as a formality. The home win at 1.57 still looks the most defensible play, but the H2H record is the risk worth respecting.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:09 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Philadelphia Union

Form (last 5)
WOrlando City SC (H) 4–2 Β· 26/09/2026WSporting Kansas City (A) 4–3 Β· 20/09/2026WSan Diego (A) 5–0 Β· 14/09/2026WFC Cincinnati (H) 5–0 Β· 09/09/2026WCF Montreal (H) 2–0 Β· 05/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)2.00
Goals conceded (season avg)1.60
Win streak (best this season)4
xG for (recent avg)1.60
xG against (recent avg)1.02
Elo strength rating1514
Players out20

Charlotte

Form (last 5)
LChicago Fire (H) 0–1 Β· 26/09/2026WDC United (A) 2–1 Β· 19/09/2026DFC Cincinnati (A) 3–3 Β· 12/09/2026WCF Montreal (A) 2–1 Β· 09/09/2026DHouston Dynamo (H) 0–0 Β· 05/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.70
Goals conceded (season avg)1.40
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)1.21
xG against (recent avg)1.92
Elo strength rating1407
Players out16
Philadelphia UnionCharlotte
Goals scored (season avg)
2.00
1.70
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.60
1.40
Win streak (best this season)
4
2
xG for (recent avg)
1.60
1.21
xG against (recent avg)
1.02
1.92
Elo strength rating
1514
1407
Players out
20
16

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Philadelphia Union

Won 6 in a row Unbeaten 9
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
5/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
3/6

Charlotte

BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Philadelphia Union at home Β· Charlotte away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Philadelphia Union (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses6W–4D–3L
W 6
D 4
L 3
Played13
Goals scored (avg)1.80
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets5
Failed to score3

Charlotte (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses5W–3D–5L
W 5
D 3
L 5
Played13
Goals scored (avg)1.60
Goals conceded (avg)1.80
Clean sheets2
Failed to score2
Philadelphia Union (home)Charlotte (away)
W 6
D 4
L 3
W 5
D 3
L 5
Played
13
13
Goals scored (avg)
1.80
1.60
Goals conceded (avg)
1.00
1.80
Clean sheets
5
2
Failed to score
3
2

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
9.9%
2–0
9.4%
2–1
7.8%
3–0
5.5%
3–1
4.6%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Charlotte 4 wins Β· 2 draws Β· Philadelphia Union 4 wins Β· avg 2.2 goals Β· BTTS in 3 of 10

4
2
4
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
04 Apr 2026 Charlotte 2–1 Philadelphia Union Major League Soccer
18 Oct 2025 Charlotte 2–0 Philadelphia Union Major League Soccer
14 Jun 2025 Philadelphia Union 2–1 Charlotte Major League Soccer
28 Jul 2024 Philadelphia Union 1–0 Charlotte Leagues Cup
22 Jun 2024 Philadelphia Union 0–2 Charlotte Major League Soccer
25 May 2024 Charlotte 0–0 Philadelphia Union Major League Soccer
20 Sep 2023 Charlotte 2–2 Philadelphia Union Major League Soccer
31 May 2023 Philadelphia Union 1–0 Charlotte Major League Soccer
01 Oct 2022 Charlotte 4–0 Philadelphia Union Major League Soccer
03 Apr 2022 Philadelphia Union 2–0 Charlotte Major League Soccer

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Philadelphia Union

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
26/09 Orlando City SC Home 4–2 W
20/09 Sporting Kansas City Away 4–3 W
14/09 San Diego Away 5–0 W
09/09 FC Cincinnati Home 5–0 W
05/09 CF Montreal Home 2–0 W

Charlotte

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
26/09 Chicago Fire Home 0–1 L
19/09 DC United Away 2–1 W
12/09 FC Cincinnati Away 3–3 D
09/09 CF Montreal Away 2–1 W
05/09 Houston Dynamo Home 0–0 D

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Major League Soccer

Philadelphia Union

Played27
Goals scored (avg)2.00
Goals conceded (avg)1.60
Clean sheets6
Failed to score5
Yellow cards64
Red cards4
xG for (avg)1.60
xG against (avg)1.02
Corners for (avg)5.20
Penalties (scored/missed)6/1

Charlotte

Played27
Goals scored (avg)1.70
Goals conceded (avg)1.40
Clean sheets5
Failed to score6
Yellow cards58
Red cards3
xG for (avg)1.21
xG against (avg)1.92
Corners for (avg)4.20
Penalties (scored/missed)4/1
Philadelphia UnionCharlotte
Played
27
27
Goals scored (avg)
2.00
1.70
Goals conceded (avg)
1.60
1.40
Clean sheets
6
5
Failed to score
5
6
Yellow cards
64
58
Red cards
4
3
xG for (avg)
1.60
1.21
xG against (avg)
1.02
1.92
Corners for (avg)
5.20
4.20
Penalties (scored/missed)
6/1
4/1

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Philadelphia Union

6
0-15
5
12
16-30
4
7
31-45
7
4
46-60
12
7
61-75
15
10
76-90
9
scored conceded

Charlotte

7
0-15
7
5
16-30
10
4
31-45
6
8
46-60
8
4
61-75
8
9
76-90
9
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Philadelphia Union

  • ❌ B. Bender β€” Groin Injury
  • ❌ E. Davis III β€” Thigh Injury
  • ❌ Q. Sullivan β€” Leg Injury
  • ❌ E. Alladoh β€” Red Card
  • ❌ O. Makhanya β€” Red Card
  • ❌ A. Anello β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ D. Jean Jacques β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ S. Olivas β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ J. Bueno β€” Leg Injury
  • ❌ P. Ndinga β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ J. Sery Larsen β€” Injury
  • ❌ A. Blake β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ F. Westfield β€” Hip Injury
  • ❌ S. Korzeniowski β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ I. Vassilev β€” Head Injury
  • ❌ J. Lukic β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ G. Martinez β€” Injury
  • ❌ A. Bedoya β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ N. Pierre β€” International duty
  • ❌ C. Sullivan β€” International duty

Charlotte

  • ❌ H. Kessler β€” Lower-Body Injury
  • ❌ L. de la Torre β€” Concussion
  • ❌ W. Zaha β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ T. Ream β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ H. Toffolo β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ A. Westwood β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ N. Byrne β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ A. Saint-Maximin β€” Inactive
  • ❌ D. Schnegg β€” Red Card
  • ❌ N. Berchimas β€” International duty
  • ❌ A. John β€” Upper-Body Injury
  • ❌ A. Johnson β€” Injury
  • ❌ A. Goodwin β€” Injury
  • ❌ L. Abada β€” International duty
  • ❌ R. Aloko β€” International duty
  • ❌ I. Toklomati β€” International duty

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