FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew

Next match: Sun, 18 Oct 2026 • 21:00 UTC+3 • Round 30 • TQL Stadium • ☀️ 17.7°C, 6 km/h clear

PREDICTLIX BEST BET

Double Chance — 1X

Model 73.4% · Market best price ≈ 69.4% · Edge +5.5 pp

Best odds 1.44 Bet365 1.44Betano 1.44William Hill 1.40

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¼ Kelly sizing: 3.2% of bank

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly — confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

Market	Tip	Confidence	Probability	Odds	Bookmaker	Market implied	Edge
Match Result (1X2)	Home 2.07 → 2.22 ▲7%	80%	44.8%	2.22	Dafabet	44.6%	+0.2 pp
Double Chance	1X	72%	73.4%	1.44	Bet365	67.9%	+5.5 pp
BTTS	Yes	83%	53.8%	1.35	William Hill	70.7%	-16.9 pp
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	82%	51.1%	1.39	Betano	70%	-18.9 pp
Correct Score	2-1	63%	7.7%	10.00	Bet365	7.9%	-0.2 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.6 exp.)	Over 9.5	61%	52.3%	2.00	Betfair	47.6%	+4.7 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: FC Cincinnati 1.74 – 1.13 Columbus Crew · expected total 2.87

🧠 Match Preview

FC Cincinnati host Columbus Crew at TQL Stadium in a Regular Season round 30 clash with real playoff-seeding weight, and the model leans toward the home side. Cincinnati's recent form reads WLDDL, while Columbus arrive with LWWWL, so neither team is arriving in dominant rhythm.

What the model sees is a home attack with a clear edge. Cincinnati's recent expected goals sit at 2.34 against Columbus's 1.36, and the goal expectations for this match are 1.739 for the hosts versus 1.1319 for the visitors. The head-to-head is volatile: Columbus won 2-1 in July 2026, Cincinnati won 2-1 in November 2025, Columbus thrashed them 4-0, Cincinnati edged a 1-0, and Columbus won 2-4 back in July 2025. Both injury lists are long, with M. Miazga doubtful for Cincinnati and I. Aliyu doubtful for Columbus.

The primary tip is a Home win at 44.8 percent, priced at 2.22, with confidence at 80. If you want a cushion, the 1X double chance carries 73.4 percent. Both teams to score is tipped Yes at 53.8 percent (1.35), Over 2.5 goals at 51.1 percent (1.39), and Over 9.5 corners at 52.3 percent with an expected 9.6. The correct-score model likes 2-1 at 7.7 percent, with 2-1 (9.72), 1-0 (8.76) and 2-0 (8.59) as the top scorelines.

The honest caveat: Cincinnati's WLDDL form and that 4-0 head-to-head blowout show this fixture can swing hard, so the 2.22 home price is the value play but not a comfortable one.

Updated 16 Oct 2026, 04:11 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

FC Cincinnati

Form (last 5)

WAtlanta United FC (A) 3–1 · 10/10/2026 LCF Montreal (A) 1–3 · 26/09/2026 DHouston Dynamo (A) 2–2 · 20/09/2026 DCharlotte (H) 3–3 · 12/09/2026 LPhiladelphia Union (A) 0–5 · 09/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)2.10

Goals conceded (season avg)2.40

Win streak (best this season)2

xG for (recent avg)1.89

xG against (recent avg)1.18

Elo strength rating1298

Players out20

Columbus Crew

Form (last 5)

LOrlando City SC (A) 2–3 · 10/10/2026 WInter Miami (H) 2–1 · 27/09/2026 WCF Montreal (A) 2–0 · 19/09/2026WOrlando City SC (H) 2–1 · 16/09/2026LNew York Red Bulls (H) 0–1 · 12/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)1.50

Goals conceded (season avg)1.60

Win streak (best this season)2

xG for (recent avg)1.07

xG against (recent avg)0.65

Elo strength rating1367

Players out14

FC CincinnatiColumbus Crew

WAtlanta United FC (A) 3–1 · 10/10/2026 LCF Montreal (A) 1–3 · 26/09/2026 DHouston Dynamo (A) 2–2 · 20/09/2026 DCharlotte (H) 3–3 · 12/09/2026 LPhiladelphia Union (A) 0–5 · 09/09/2026

LOrlando City SC (A) 2–3 · 10/10/2026 WInter Miami (H) 2–1 · 27/09/2026 WCF Montreal (A) 2–0 · 19/09/2026WOrlando City SC (H) 2–1 · 16/09/2026LNew York Red Bulls (H) 0–1 · 12/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)

2.10

1.50

Goals conceded (season avg)

2.40

1.60

Win streak (best this season)

xG for (recent avg)

1.89

1.07

xG against (recent avg)

1.18

0.65

Elo strength rating

1298

1367

Players out

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

FC Cincinnati

BTTS

4/6

Over 2.5

6/6

Scored

4/6

Clean sheets

0/6

Columbus Crew

BTTS

4/6

Over 2.5

4/6

Scored

5/6

Clean sheets

1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — Major League Soccer

FC Cincinnati

3rd best attack (2.10 goals/game) Best Over 2.5 rate (100%)

Columbus Crew

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Rank among 30 Major League Soccer teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

FC Cincinnati at home · Columbus Crew away — the split that matters for this fixture.

FC Cincinnati (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses7W–3D–2L

W 7

D 3

L 2

Played12

Goals scored (avg)2.80

Goals conceded (avg)2.00

Clean sheets2

Failed to score1

Columbus Crew (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–3D–9L

W 2

D 3

L 9

Played14

Goals scored (avg)1.60

Goals conceded (avg)2.10

Clean sheets1

Failed to score1

FC Cincinnati (home)Columbus Crew (away)

W 7

D 3

L 2

W 2

D 3

L 9

Played

Goals scored (avg)

2.80

1.60

Goals conceded (avg)

2.00

2.10

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

2–1

7.7%

1–0

6.9%

2–0

6.8%

3–1

4.5%

3–0

3.9%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Columbus Crew 4 wins · 2 draws · FC Cincinnati 3 wins · avg 2.8 goals · BTTS in 5 of 9

Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
25 Jul 2026	Columbus Crew	2–1	FC Cincinnati	Major League Soccer
08 Nov 2025	FC Cincinnati	2–1	Columbus Crew	Major League Soccer
02 Nov 2025	Columbus Crew	4–0	FC Cincinnati	Major League Soccer
27 Oct 2025	FC Cincinnati	1–0	Columbus Crew	Major League Soccer
12 Jul 2025	FC Cincinnati	2–4	Columbus Crew	Major League Soccer
17 May 2025	Columbus Crew	1–1	FC Cincinnati	Major League Soccer
14 Sep 2024	FC Cincinnati	0–0	Columbus Crew	Major League Soccer
11 May 2024	Columbus Crew	1–2	FC Cincinnati	Major League Soccer
20 Aug 2023	Columbus Crew	3–0	FC Cincinnati	Major League Soccer

📈 Recent Form

FC Cincinnati

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
10/10	Atlanta United FC	Away	3–1	W
26/09	CF Montreal	Away	1–3	L
20/09	Houston Dynamo	Away	2–2	D
12/09	Charlotte	Home	3–3	D
09/09	Philadelphia Union	Away	0–5	L

Columbus Crew

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
10/10	Orlando City SC	Away	2–3	L
27/09	Inter Miami	Home	2–1	W
19/09	CF Montreal	Away	2–0	W
16/09	Orlando City SC	Home	2–1	W
12/09	New York Red Bulls	Home	0–1	L

📊 Season Comparison — Major League Soccer

FC Cincinnati

Played27

Goals scored (avg)2.10

Goals conceded (avg)2.40

Clean sheets2

Failed to score4

Yellow cards58

Red cards7

xG for (avg)1.89

xG against (avg)1.18

Corners for (avg)6.80

Penalties (scored/missed)6/0

Columbus Crew

Played28

Goals scored (avg)1.50

Goals conceded (avg)1.60

Clean sheets5

Failed to score4

Yellow cards50

Red cards0

xG for (avg)1.07

xG against (avg)0.65

Corners for (avg)3.50

Penalties (scored/missed)4/1

FC CincinnatiColumbus Crew

Played

Goals scored (avg)

2.10

1.50

Goals conceded (avg)

2.40

1.60

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Yellow cards

Red cards

xG for (avg)

1.89

1.07

xG against (avg)

1.18

0.65

Corners for (avg)

6.80

3.50

Penalties (scored/missed)

6/0

4/1

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

FC Cincinnati

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Columbus Crew

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

🏥 Injuries & Suspensions

FC Cincinnati

❌ K. Fletcher — Knee Injury
❌ S. Chirila — Leg Injury
❌ T. Anunga — Leg Injury
❌ R. Celentano — Rest
❌ G. Valenzuela — Red Card
❌ M. Robinson — Red Card
❌ A. Powell — Red Card
❌ K. Denkey — Red Card
❌ O. Nwobodo — Leg Injury
❌ N. Hagglund — Injury
❌ B. J. Ramirez Leon — Yellow Cards
❌ T. Hadebe — Leg Injury
❌ A. Jabbari — Leg Injury
❌ K. Smith — Red Card
❌ A. Chirila — Concussion
❌ S. Gidi — Injury
❌ Evander — Yellow Cards
❌ P. Bucha — International duty
❌ E. Echenique — Inactive
❌ J. Martinez — Knee Injury
❓ M. Miazga (doubtful) — Leg Injury

Columbus Crew

❌ M. Farsi — Pelvis Injury
❌ D. Chambost — Muscle Injury
❌ Y. Cheberko — Thigh Injury
❌ W. Abou Ali — Injury
❌ A. Gomes — Leg Injury
❌ J. Thiare — Lower-Body Injury
❌ M. Amundsen — Thigh Injury
❌ B. Lennon — Groin Injury
❌ S. Bangoura — Ankle Injury
❌ R. Camacho — Yellow Cards
❌ B. Mendez — Lacking Match Fitness
❌ N. Hagen — International duty
❌ S. Moreira — International duty
❌ G. Tapia — International duty
❓ I. Aliyu (doubtful) — Ankle Injury

More: Major League Soccer predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws