Predictions β†’ Usa Major League Soccer

DC United vs New York Red Bulls

Next match: Wed, 14 Oct 2026 β€’ 23:30 UTC+3 β€’ Round 29 β€’ Audi Field β€’ β˜€οΈ 26.1Β°C, 7 km/h clear

PREDICTLIX BEST BET
Over/Under 2.5 β€” Under 2.5
Model 47.0% Β· Market best price β‰ˆ 37.5% Β· Edge +11.1 pp
Best odds 2.67 Betano 2.67Betfair 2.63BetVictor 2.63
Bet this pick β†’
ΒΌ Kelly sizing: 3.6% of bank

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly β€” confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 1.8 β†’ 1.93 β–²7% 81% 50.1% 1.93 Dafabet 52% -1.9 pp
Double Chance 12 70% 70.1% 1.25 William Hill 77.4% -7.3 pp
BTTS Yes 81% 48.4% 1.47 Betano 64.1% -15.7 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 80% 47.1% 2.67 Betano 36% +11.1 pp
Correct Score 2-1 63% 7.4% 9.00 Bet365 8.6% -1.2 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.7 exp.) Over 9.5 63% 54.5% 1.67 Bet365 55.7% -1.2 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: DC United 1.60 – 1.19 New York Red Bulls Β· expected total 2.79

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

DC United host the New York Red Bulls at Audi Field in a Regular Season round 29 clash, and the model leans toward the home side. DC United's recent form reads DLDWD, while the Red Bulls arrive with LWWLD, a slightly more volatile run.

The attacking numbers favor the hosts: DC United's expected goals sit at 1.5993, with recent xG at 1.53, against the Red Bulls' 1.1906 and 1.23. Both squads are heavily depleted, though the visitors' injury list is longer and includes E. Forsberg and E. M. Choupo-Moting, which helps explain the gap in projected output. The head-to-head record is chaotic, including a 4-4 draw in April 2026 and a 0-2 Red Bulls win in May 2025.

The headline tip is a home win at 1.93, with the model assigning it 50.1 percent and confidence of 81. The double chance covering home or draw carries 70.1 percent. Both teams to score is tipped Yes at 48.4 percent with odds of 1.47, while Under 2.5 goals sits at 47.1 percent and is priced at 2.67, a number that looks generous if the model's read on a tighter game holds. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 7.4 percent, with 1-0 and 2-0 close behind. Corners are tipped Over 9.5, with an expected 10.7 and 54.5 percent probability.

The honest caveat: a 50.1 percent home win is barely better than a coin flip, and with both teams missing so many players, the lineups could shift the picture significantly before kickoff.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 16:09 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

DC United

Form (last 5)
DVancouver Whitecaps (A) 3–3 Β· 27/09/2026LCharlotte (H) 1–2 Β· 19/09/2026DAtlanta United FC (H) 0–0 Β· 12/09/2026WColumbus Crew (H) 2–1 Β· 09/09/2026DLos Angeles FC (H) 0–0 Β· 29/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.30
Goals conceded (season avg)1.60
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)1.24
xG against (recent avg)1.10
Elo strength rating1335
Players out12

New York Red Bulls

Form (last 5)
LSt. Louis City (H) 0–3 Β· 30/09/2026WNew York City FC (A) 1–0 Β· 18/09/2026WColumbus Crew (A) 1–0 Β· 12/09/2026LLos Angeles FC (A) 0–2 Β· 10/09/2026DSeattle Sounders (A) 0–0 Β· 06/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.30
Goals conceded (season avg)1.90
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)1.23
xG against (recent avg)1.94
Elo strength rating1383
Players out17
DC UnitedNew York Red Bulls
Goals scored (season avg)
1.30
1.30
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.60
1.90
Win streak (best this season)
2
2
xG for (recent avg)
1.24
1.23
xG against (recent avg)
1.10
1.94
Elo strength rating
1335
1383
Players out
12
17

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

DC United

Winless 3
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
2/6

New York Red Bulls

BTTS
1/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
3/6
Clean sheets
3/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Major League Soccer

DC United

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

New York Red Bulls

Worst BTTS rate (17%) 2nd worst Over 2.5 rate (33%)

Rank among 30 Major League Soccer teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

DC United at home Β· New York Red Bulls away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

DC United (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–5D–5L
W 4
D 5
L 5
Played14
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)1.80
Clean sheets3
Failed to score4

New York Red Bulls (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses5W–3D–6L
W 5
D 3
L 6
Played14
Goals scored (avg)1.10
Goals conceded (avg)1.80
Clean sheets3
Failed to score3
DC United (home)New York Red Bulls (away)
W 4
D 5
L 5
W 5
D 3
L 6
Played
14
14
Goals scored (avg)
1.30
1.10
Goals conceded (avg)
1.80
1.80
Clean sheets
3
3
Failed to score
4
3

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

2–1
7.4%
1–0
6.8%
2–0
6.2%
3–1
3.9%
3–0
3.3%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

DC United 1 win Β· 4 draws Β· New York Red Bulls 5 wins Β· avg 3.4 goals Β· BTTS in 6 of 10

1
4
5
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
22 Apr 2026 New York Red Bulls 4–4 DC United Major League Soccer
24 May 2025 DC United 0–2 New York Red Bulls Major League Soccer
19 Apr 2025 New York Red Bulls 1–2 DC United Major League Soccer
25 Jan 2025 New York Red Bulls 1–1 DC United Friendlies Clubs
29 Jun 2024 New York Red Bulls 2–2 DC United Major League Soccer
15 May 2024 DC United 1–4 New York Red Bulls Major League Soccer
23 Sep 2023 DC United 3–5 New York Red Bulls Major League Soccer
20 Aug 2023 New York Red Bulls 1–0 DC United Major League Soccer
09 May 2023 New York Red Bulls 1–0 DC United US Open Cup
06 Aug 2022 DC United 0–0 New York Red Bulls Major League Soccer

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

DC United

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
27/09 Vancouver Whitecaps Away 3–3 D
19/09 Charlotte Home 1–2 L
12/09 Atlanta United FC Home 0–0 D
09/09 Columbus Crew Home 2–1 W
29/08 Los Angeles FC Home 0–0 D

New York Red Bulls

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
30/09 St. Louis City Home 0–3 L
18/09 New York City FC Away 1–0 W
12/09 Columbus Crew Away 1–0 W
10/09 Los Angeles FC Away 0–2 L
06/09 Seattle Sounders Away 0–0 D

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Major League Soccer

DC United

Played26
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)1.60
Clean sheets6
Failed to score8
Yellow cards53
Red cards1
xG for (avg)1.24
xG against (avg)1.10
Corners for (avg)4.60
Penalties (scored/missed)4/0

New York Red Bulls

Played27
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)1.90
Clean sheets4
Failed to score8
Yellow cards56
Red cards2
xG for (avg)1.23
xG against (avg)1.94
Corners for (avg)4.90
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0
DC UnitedNew York Red Bulls
Played
26
27
Goals scored (avg)
1.30
1.30
Goals conceded (avg)
1.60
1.90
Clean sheets
6
4
Failed to score
8
8
Yellow cards
53
56
Red cards
1
2
xG for (avg)
1.24
1.23
xG against (avg)
1.10
1.94
Corners for (avg)
4.60
4.90
Penalties (scored/missed)
4/0
1/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

DC United

1
0-15
2
7
16-30
7
8
31-45
3
6
46-60
6
10
61-75
4
11
76-90
11
scored conceded

New York Red Bulls

7
0-15
7
4
16-30
2
8
31-45
7
12
46-60
6
10
61-75
2
12
76-90
8
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

DC United

  • ❌ H. Karamoko β€” Illness
  • ❌ G. Segal β€” Leg Injury
  • ❌ A. Herrera β€” Leg Injury
  • ❌ L. Munteanu β€” Lower-Body Injury
  • ❌ K. Rowles β€” Inactive
  • ❌ T. Baribo β€” Injury
  • ❌ S. Nealis β€” Injury
  • ❌ S. Hefti β€” Red Card
  • ❌ C. Antley β€” Leg Injury
  • ❌ L. Bartlett β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Peglow β€” Thigh Injury
  • ❌ M. Peltola β€” International duty

New York Red Bulls

  • ❌ C. Harper β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ A. Marcucci β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ M. Sofo β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ J. Che β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ G. Berggren β€” Red Card
  • ❌ E. M. Choupo-Moting β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ M. Dos Santos β€” Calf Injury
  • ❌ E. Forsberg β€” Hip Injury
  • ❌ R. Mosquera β€” Thigh Injury
  • ❌ A. Mehmeti β€” Red Card
  • ❌ J. Ruvalcaba β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ O. Valencia β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ E. Lomdono β€” Injury
  • ❌ J. Marshall-Rutty β€” Injury
  • ❌ J. Hall β€” International duty
  • ❌ M. Jimenez β€” International duty
  • ❌ D. Ruiz β€” International duty
  • ❓ R. Donkor (doubtful) β€” Knee Injury
  • ❓ D. Nealis (doubtful) β€” Ankle Injury

More: Major League Soccer predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws