Predictions β†’ Usa Major League Soccer

Orlando City SC vs DC United

Next match: Sat, 17 Oct 2026 β€’ 23:30 UTC+3 β€’ Round 30 β€’ Exploria Stadium β€’ 🌦 24.5Β°C, 19 km/h, 0.2mm drizzle

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 84% 57% 1.73 William Hill 57.7% -0.7 pp
Double Chance 12 71% 71.6% 1.22 William Hill 79% -7.4 pp
BTTS Yes 83% 53.7% 1.40 William Hill 67.3% -13.6 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 83% 52.6% 1.38 Betano 69.9% -17.3 pp
Correct Score 2-1 63% 7.5% 9.25 Betano 8.6% -1.1 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.7 exp.) Over 9.5 61% 52.4% 1.60 Betano 58.4% -6 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Orlando City SC 1.77 – 1.26 DC United Β· expected total 3.04

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Orlando City host DC United at Exploria Stadium in a Regular Season - 30 clash that matters more for the visitors' fading hopes than the hosts' ambitions. The model leans decisively toward the home side, pricing Orlando at 57% to win at odds of 1.73, with a confidence reading of 84. The double chance covering a home win or draw sits at 71.6%, which frames the shape of this game neatly.

Orlando's recent form reads LLLWW, hardly convincing, but their attacking numbers hold up: 1.7741 expected goals at home and 1.79 xG across recent outings. DC United arrive with a DLDWD sequence and a softer away threat of 1.2644 expected goals, though their recent xG of 1.53 suggests they are creating more than that baseline implies. The head-to-head record is wild β€” a 3-2 DC win in April 2026, a 1-1 draw, then Orlando victories of 4-1, 5-0 and 2-3 β€” so goals have rarely been scarce between these two.

That history supports the model's Over 2.5 lean at 52.6% (odds 1.38) and Both Teams To Score at 53.7% (odds 1.4). The correct score favourite is 2-1 at 9.56, with 2-0 at 7.56 and 1-0 at 7.44 close behind. Corners offer a quieter angle: Over 9.5 at 52.4% against an expected 9.7.

The honest caveat is Orlando's LLLWW form and a crowded injury list including Jansson, Cartagena and Crepeau, plus doubtful names Gerbet, Marin and Tiago. If rotation bites, the 1.73 home price loses its cushion.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 16:09 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Orlando City SC

Form (last 5)
LPhiladelphia Union (A) 2–4 Β· 26/09/2026LNew England Revolution (A) 2–4 Β· 19/09/2026LColumbus Crew (A) 1–2 Β· 16/09/2026WToronto FC (H) 3–0 Β· 12/09/2026WAtlanta United FC (A) 3–2 Β· 09/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.80
Goals conceded (season avg)2.40
Win streak (best this season)3
xG for (recent avg)1.40
xG against (recent avg)1.36
Elo strength rating1400
Players out19

DC United

Form (last 5)
DVancouver Whitecaps (A) 3–3 Β· 27/09/2026LCharlotte (H) 1–2 Β· 19/09/2026DAtlanta United FC (H) 0–0 Β· 12/09/2026WColumbus Crew (H) 2–1 Β· 09/09/2026DLos Angeles FC (H) 0–0 Β· 29/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.30
Goals conceded (season avg)1.60
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)1.24
xG against (recent avg)1.10
Elo strength rating1335
Players out12
Orlando City SCDC United
Goals scored (season avg)
1.80
1.30
Goals conceded (season avg)
2.40
1.60
Win streak (best this season)
3
2
xG for (recent avg)
1.40
1.24
xG against (recent avg)
1.36
1.10
Elo strength rating
1400
1335
Players out
19
12

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Orlando City SC

Lost 3 in a row Winless 3
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
5/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
2/6

DC United

Winless 3
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Orlando City SC at home Β· DC United away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Orlando City SC (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses7W–2D–4L
W 7
D 2
L 4
Played13
Goals scored (avg)1.80
Goals conceded (avg)1.30
Clean sheets3
Failed to score1

DC United (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–7D–3L
W 2
D 7
L 3
Played12
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)1.40
Clean sheets3
Failed to score4
Orlando City SC (home)DC United (away)
W 7
D 2
L 4
W 2
D 7
L 3
Played
13
12
Goals scored (avg)
1.80
1.30
Goals conceded (avg)
1.30
1.40
Clean sheets
3
3
Failed to score
1
4

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

2–1
7.5%
2–0
5.9%
1–0
5.8%
3–1
4.4%
3–0
3.5%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

DC United 4 wins Β· 2 draws Β· Orlando City SC 4 wins Β· avg 4.2 goals Β· BTTS in 9 of 10

4
2
4
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
25 Apr 2026 DC United 3–2 Orlando City SC Major League Soccer
13 Sep 2025 DC United 1–1 Orlando City SC Major League Soccer
22 Mar 2025 Orlando City SC 4–1 DC United Major League Soccer
06 Jul 2024 Orlando City SC 5–0 DC United Major League Soccer
13 Apr 2024 DC United 2–3 Orlando City SC Major League Soccer
22 Apr 2023 Orlando City SC 1–3 DC United Major League Soccer
12 Mar 2023 DC United 1–1 Orlando City SC Major League Soccer
31 Jul 2022 DC United 2–1 Orlando City SC Major League Soccer
04 Jul 2022 Orlando City SC 3–5 DC United Major League Soccer
02 Oct 2021 Orlando City SC 2–1 DC United Major League Soccer

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Orlando City SC

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
26/09 Philadelphia Union Away 2–4 L
19/09 New England Revolution Away 2–4 L
16/09 Columbus Crew Away 1–2 L
12/09 Toronto FC Home 3–0 W
09/09 Atlanta United FC Away 3–2 W

DC United

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
27/09 Vancouver Whitecaps Away 3–3 D
19/09 Charlotte Home 1–2 L
12/09 Atlanta United FC Home 0–0 D
09/09 Columbus Crew Home 2–1 W
29/08 Los Angeles FC Home 0–0 D

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Major League Soccer

Orlando City SC

Played27
Goals scored (avg)1.80
Goals conceded (avg)2.40
Clean sheets4
Failed to score5
Yellow cards61
Red cards2
xG for (avg)1.40
xG against (avg)1.36
Corners for (avg)4.20
Penalties (scored/missed)4/0

DC United

Played26
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)1.60
Clean sheets6
Failed to score8
Yellow cards53
Red cards1
xG for (avg)1.24
xG against (avg)1.10
Corners for (avg)4.60
Penalties (scored/missed)4/0
Orlando City SCDC United
Played
27
26
Goals scored (avg)
1.80
1.30
Goals conceded (avg)
2.40
1.60
Clean sheets
4
6
Failed to score
5
8
Yellow cards
61
53
Red cards
2
1
xG for (avg)
1.40
1.24
xG against (avg)
1.36
1.10
Corners for (avg)
4.20
4.60
Penalties (scored/missed)
4/0
4/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Orlando City SC

6
0-15
4
11
16-30
12
10
31-45
3
13
46-60
9
8
61-75
9
14
76-90
14
scored conceded

DC United

1
0-15
2
7
16-30
7
8
31-45
3
6
46-60
6
10
61-75
4
11
76-90
11
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Orlando City SC

  • ❌ R. Jansson β€” Foot Injury
  • ❌ Luis Otavio β€” Injury
  • ❌ W. Cartagena β€” Thigh Injury
  • ❌ C. Guske β€” Red Card
  • ❌ M. Crepeau β€” Red Card
  • ❌ E. Atuesta β€” Thigh Injury
  • ❌ D. Brekalo β€” Lower-Body Injury
  • ❌ T. Spicer β€” Thigh Injury
  • ❌ D. McGuire β€” Injury
  • ❌ G. Dorsey β€” Thigh Injury
  • ❌ M. Pasalic β€” Thigh Injury
  • ❌ N. Miller β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ M. Ojeda β€” Thigh Injury
  • ❌ B. Ojeda β€” Foot Injury
  • ❌ B. Rhein β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ A. Gomez β€” Thigh Injury
  • ❌ A. Griezmann β€” Thigh Injury
  • ❌ Iago Teodoro β€” Suspended
  • ❌ J. Ellis β€” International duty
  • ❓ J. Gerbet (doubtful) β€” Knee Injury
  • ❓ A. Marin (doubtful) β€” Thigh Injury
  • ❓ Tiago (doubtful) β€” Leg Injury

DC United

  • ❌ H. Karamoko β€” Illness
  • ❌ G. Segal β€” Leg Injury
  • ❌ A. Herrera β€” Leg Injury
  • ❌ L. Munteanu β€” Lower-Body Injury
  • ❌ K. Rowles β€” Inactive
  • ❌ T. Baribo β€” Injury
  • ❌ S. Nealis β€” Injury
  • ❌ S. Hefti β€” Red Card
  • ❌ C. Antley β€” Leg Injury
  • ❌ L. Bartlett β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Peglow β€” Thigh Injury
  • ❌ M. Peltola β€” International duty

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