Predictions β†’ Usa Major League Soccer

FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution

Next match: Wed, 14 Oct 2026 β€’ 23:30 UTC+3 β€’ Round 29 β€’ TQL Stadium β€’ 🌧 21.2Β°C, 6 km/h, 5.2mm heavy rain

PREDICTLIX BEST BET
Double Chance β€” 1X
Model 75.8% Β· Market best price β‰ˆ 72.5% Β· Edge +5.1 pp
Best odds 1.38 Betano 1.38Bet365 1.36Betfair 1.33
Bet this pick β†’
ΒΌ Kelly sizing: 3.0% of bank

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly β€” confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 81% 49.7% 2.07 Dafabet 48.5% +1.2 pp
Double Chance 1X 74% 75.8% 1.38 Betano 70.7% +5.1 pp
BTTS Yes 83% 53.4% 1.36 William Hill 69.5% -16.1 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 83% 53.6% 1.41 Pinnacle 69.1% -15.5 pp
Correct Score 2-1 64% 7.7% 10.00 Betano 7.8% -0.1 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~11.8 exp.) Over 9.5 66% 56.5% 1.62 Betano 57.8% -1.3 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: FC Cincinnati 1.75 – 1.03 New England Revolution Β· expected total 2.78

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

FC Cincinnati host the New England Revolution at TQL Stadium in a Regular Season round 29 clash, and the model leans firmly toward the home side. Cincinnati's recent form reads WLDDL, while the Revolution arrive on LLWWW, so both teams have been inconsistent, but the underlying numbers point one way.

The model gives Cincinnati a 49.7 percent chance of winning, with confidence at 81, and prices the home win at 2.07. Expected goals tell a similar story: Cincinnati are projected at 1.7492 against New England's 1.0349, and recent xG form backs it up at 2.34 for the hosts versus 1.79 for the visitors. The double chance 1X sits at 75.8 percent, a safer route if you want to avoid the outright risk.

For goals, Over 2.5 lands at 53.6 percent with odds of 1.41, while both teams to score is 53.4 percent at 1.36. The most likely correct score is 2-1 at 9.8 percent, followed by 1-0 at 9.71 and 2-0 at 9.47. Corners offer another angle: Over 9.5 is tipped at 56.5 percent with an expected 11.8.

The value question is whether 2.07 on the home win beats a 49.7 percent model probability, and it narrowly does. The honest caveat is the head-to-head: New England won the most recent meeting 6-1 in March 2026, and Cincinnati's WLDDL run shows they are far from reliable, so the 1X or goals markets may be the calmer play.

Updated 13 Oct 2026, 10:09 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

FC Cincinnati

Form (last 5)
WAtlanta United FC (A) 3–1 Β· 10/10/2026LCF Montreal (A) 1–3 Β· 26/09/2026DHouston Dynamo (A) 2–2 Β· 20/09/2026DCharlotte (H) 3–3 Β· 12/09/2026LPhiladelphia Union (A) 0–5 Β· 09/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)2.10
Goals conceded (season avg)2.40
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)1.89
xG against (recent avg)1.18
Elo strength rating1314
Players out19

New England Revolution

Form (last 5)
LSeattle Sounders (H) 0–3 Β· 10/10/2026LReal Salt Lake (A) 0–3 Β· 27/09/2026WOrlando City SC (H) 4–2 Β· 19/09/2026WChicago Fire (A) 2–1 Β· 13/09/2026WNew York City FC (A) 2–1 Β· 10/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.60
Goals conceded (season avg)1.40
Win streak (best this season)4
xG for (recent avg)1.45
xG against (recent avg)1.13
Elo strength rating1377
Players out16
FC CincinnatiNew England Revolution
Goals scored (season avg)
2.10
1.60
Goals conceded (season avg)
2.40
1.40
Win streak (best this season)
2
4
xG for (recent avg)
1.89
1.45
xG against (recent avg)
1.18
1.13
Elo strength rating
1314
1377
Players out
19
16

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

FC Cincinnati

BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
6/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
0/6

New England Revolution

Lost 2 in a row
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
6/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
0/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Major League Soccer

FC Cincinnati

3rd best attack (2.10 goals/game) Best Over 2.5 rate (100%)

New England Revolution

Best Over 2.5 rate (100%)

Rank among 30 Major League Soccer teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

FC Cincinnati at home Β· New England Revolution away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

FC Cincinnati (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses7W–3D–2L
W 7
D 3
L 2
Played12
Goals scored (avg)2.80
Goals conceded (avg)2.00
Clean sheets2
Failed to score1

New England Revolution (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses5W–2D–7L
W 5
D 2
L 7
Played14
Goals scored (avg)1.40
Goals conceded (avg)1.60
Clean sheets1
Failed to score3
FC Cincinnati (home)New England Revolution (away)
W 7
D 3
L 2
W 5
D 2
L 7
Played
12
14
Goals scored (avg)
2.80
1.40
Goals conceded (avg)
2.00
1.60
Clean sheets
2
1
Failed to score
1
3

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

2–1
7.7%
1–0
7.6%
2–0
7.4%
3–1
4.5%
3–0
4.3%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

FC Cincinnati 4 wins Β· 3 draws Β· New England Revolution 2 wins Β· avg 3.3 goals Β· BTTS in 7 of 9

4
3
2
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
15 Mar 2026 New England Revolution 6–1 FC Cincinnati Major League Soccer
23 Jan 2026 New England Revolution 1–1 FC Cincinnati Friendlies Clubs
14 Jun 2025 New England Revolution 0–1 FC Cincinnati Major League Soccer
05 Apr 2025 FC Cincinnati 1–0 New England Revolution Major League Soccer
22 Jun 2024 FC Cincinnati 1–2 New England Revolution Major League Soccer
17 Mar 2024 New England Revolution 1–2 FC Cincinnati Major League Soccer
15 Feb 2024 FC Cincinnati 5–2 New England Revolution Friendlies Clubs
01 Jul 2023 FC Cincinnati 2–2 New England Revolution Major League Soccer
29 Apr 2023 New England Revolution 1–1 FC Cincinnati Major League Soccer

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

FC Cincinnati

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Atlanta United FC Away 3–1 W
26/09 CF Montreal Away 1–3 L
20/09 Houston Dynamo Away 2–2 D
12/09 Charlotte Home 3–3 D
09/09 Philadelphia Union Away 0–5 L

New England Revolution

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Seattle Sounders Home 0–3 L
27/09 Real Salt Lake Away 0–3 L
19/09 Orlando City SC Home 4–2 W
13/09 Chicago Fire Away 2–1 W
10/09 New York City FC Away 2–1 W

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Major League Soccer

FC Cincinnati

Played27
Goals scored (avg)2.10
Goals conceded (avg)2.40
Clean sheets2
Failed to score4
Yellow cards58
Red cards7
xG for (avg)1.89
xG against (avg)1.18
Corners for (avg)6.80
Penalties (scored/missed)6/0

New England Revolution

Played28
Goals scored (avg)1.60
Goals conceded (avg)1.40
Clean sheets5
Failed to score7
Yellow cards50
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.45
xG against (avg)1.13
Corners for (avg)4.80
Penalties (scored/missed)6/1
FC CincinnatiNew England Revolution
Played
27
28
Goals scored (avg)
2.10
1.60
Goals conceded (avg)
2.40
1.40
Clean sheets
2
5
Failed to score
4
7
Yellow cards
58
50
Red cards
7
0
xG for (avg)
1.89
1.45
xG against (avg)
1.18
1.13
Corners for (avg)
6.80
4.80
Penalties (scored/missed)
6/0
6/1

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

FC Cincinnati

4
0-15
5
12
16-30
6
12
31-45
13
15
46-60
9
7
61-75
6
13
76-90
22
scored conceded

New England Revolution

5
0-15
5
6
16-30
4
9
31-45
12
4
46-60
8
8
61-75
4
5
76-90
14
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

FC Cincinnati

  • ❌ K. Fletcher β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ S. Chirila β€” Leg Injury
  • ❌ T. Anunga β€” Leg Injury
  • ❌ R. Celentano β€” Rest
  • ❌ G. Valenzuela β€” Red Card
  • ❌ M. Robinson β€” Red Card
  • ❌ A. Powell β€” Red Card
  • ❌ K. Denkey β€” Red Card
  • ❌ O. Nwobodo β€” Leg Injury
  • ❌ N. Hagglund β€” Injury
  • ❌ B. J. Ramirez Leon β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ T. Hadebe β€” Leg Injury
  • ❌ A. Jabbari β€” Leg Injury
  • ❌ K. Smith β€” Red Card
  • ❌ A. Chirila β€” Concussion
  • ❌ S. Gidi β€” Injury
  • ❌ Evander β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ P. Bucha β€” International duty
  • ❌ E. Echenique β€” Inactive
  • ❓ M. Miazga (doubtful) β€” Leg Injury

New England Revolution

  • ❌ M. Fofana β€” Inactive
  • ❌ P. Miller β€” Calf Injury
  • ❌ L. Campana β€” Lower-Body Injury
  • ❌ A. Farrell β€” Hip Injury
  • ❌ M. Polster β€” Injury
  • ❌ B. Ceballos β€” Injury
  • ❌ J. Yueill β€” Injury
  • ❌ I. Feingold β€” Lower-Body Injury
  • ❌ L. Langoni β€” Lower-Body Injury
  • ❌ J. Da β€” Injury
  • ❌ B. Raines β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ J. Harrison β€” Inactive
  • ❌ T. Smith β€” Inactive
  • ❌ J. Wynder β€” Inactive
  • ❌ A. Yusuf β€” Injury
  • ❌ D. Turgeman β€” International duty
  • ❓ E. Kohler (doubtful) β€” Head Injury

More: Major League Soccer predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws