Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Diego

Next match: Sun, 18 Oct 2026 • 02:30 UTC+3 • Round 30 • Dignity Health Sports Park • ☀️ 11.5°C, 11 km/h clear

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

Market	Tip	Confidence	Probability	Odds	Bookmaker	Market implied	Edge
Match Result (1X2)	Home 1.97 → 2.2 ▲12%	79%	43.1%	2.20	Betano	45.9%	-2.8 pp
Double Chance	12	69%	69.1%	1.26	Betano	76.3%	-7.2 pp
BTTS	Yes	83%	53.1%	1.36	William Hill	69.5%	-16.4 pp
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	81%	49.3%	1.40	Bet365	68.9%	-19.6 pp
Correct Score	1-0	63%	7.3%	15.00	Bet365	5.2%	+2.1 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.2 exp.)	Over 9.5	62%	53.6%	1.91	Betfair	50.5%	+3.1 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Los Angeles Galaxy 1.49 – 1.16 San Diego · expected total 2.65

🧠 Match Preview

Sunday's Regular Season round 30 clash at Dignity Health Sports Park sees Los Angeles Galaxy host San Diego, with both sides scrapping for late-season positioning. The Galaxy sit 8th on 39 points from 30 games, while San Diego are 12th on 33 points from 29 — a gap the visitors will be desperate to close.

The model leans toward the home side, giving the Galaxy a 43.1 percent win probability at odds of 2.2, with confidence rated at 79. Form offers some support: the Galaxy's last five read LWWDL, compared to San Diego's LDDLL. Expected goals point the same way, with the hosts at 1.4924 against 1.1577 for the visitors, though recent xG is tighter at 1.72 versus 1.57. History is a warning, though — San Diego won the last meeting 3-1 in August 2026 and also took the February 2025 fixture 0-2 at this venue.

The headline tips: double chance 12 at 69.1 percent, BTTS Yes at 53.1 percent (odds 1.36), Over 2.5 at 49.3 percent (odds 1.4), and Over 9.5 corners at 53.6 percent with 10.2 expected. The most likely correct score is 1-0 at 7.3 percent, with 2-1 (9.12) and 2-0 (7.88) close behind in the top-scores list. Value may hide in the home win at 2.2, where the model's 43.1 percent implies more than the odds suggest.

The caveat: both injury lists are enormous, and with San Diego holding recent H2H edge, the 1-0 scoreline is a thin margin to trust.

Updated 16 Oct 2026, 04:11 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Los Angeles Galaxy

Form (last 5)

LSt. Louis City (A) 2–6 · 11/10/2026 WColorado Rapids (H) 3–2 · 27/09/2026 WMinnesota United FC (A) 3–2 · 20/09/2026 DSeattle Sounders (H) 1–1 · 13/09/2026 LVancouver Whitecaps (A) 0–3 · 10/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)1.30

Goals conceded (season avg)1.70

Win streak (best this season)2

xG for (recent avg)1.39

xG against (recent avg)1.82

Elo strength rating1400

Players out22

San Diego

Form (last 5)

LNew York Red Bulls (A) 1–4 · 10/10/2026 DAustin (A) 3–3 · 27/09/2026 DInter Miami (A) 2–2 · 20/09/2026 LPhiladelphia Union (H) 0–5 · 14/09/2026 LSan Jose Earthquakes (H) 2–3 · 10/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)1.70

Goals conceded (season avg)1.80

Win streak (best this season)3

xG for (recent avg)1.57

xG against (recent avg)1.95

Elo strength rating1518

Players out26

Los Angeles GalaxySan Diego

Goals scored (season avg)

1.30

1.70

Goals conceded (season avg)

1.70

1.80

Win streak (best this season)

xG for (recent avg)

1.39

1.57

xG against (recent avg)

1.82

1.95

Elo strength rating

1400

1518

Players out

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Los Angeles Galaxy

BTTS

5/6

Over 2.5

5/6

Scored

5/6

Clean sheets

0/6

San Diego

Winless 6

BTTS

4/6

Over 2.5

5/6

Scored

4/6

Clean sheets

0/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — Major League Soccer

Los Angeles Galaxy

2nd best BTTS rate (83%)

San Diego

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Rank among 30 Major League Soccer teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Los Angeles Galaxy at home · San Diego away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Los Angeles Galaxy (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses5W–5D–4L

W 5

D 5

L 4

Played14

Goals scored (avg)1.30

Goals conceded (avg)1.30

Clean sheets3

Failed to score2

San Diego (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–5D–7L

W 2

D 5

L 7

Played14

Goals scored (avg)1.10

Goals conceded (avg)1.90

Clean sheets2

Failed to score4

Los Angeles Galaxy (home)San Diego (away)

W 5

D 5

L 4

W 2

D 5

L 7

Played

Goals scored (avg)

1.30

1.10

Goals conceded (avg)

1.30

1.90

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0

7.3%

2–1

7.1%

2–0

6.2%

3–1

3.6%

3–0

3.1%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Los Angeles Galaxy 0 wins · 0 draws · San Diego 3 wins · avg 3 goals · BTTS in 2 of 3

Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
30 Aug 2026	San Diego	3–1	Los Angeles Galaxy	Major League Soccer
24 May 2025	San Diego	2–1	Los Angeles Galaxy	Major League Soccer
24 Feb 2025	Los Angeles Galaxy	0–2	San Diego	Major League Soccer

📈 Recent Form

Los Angeles Galaxy

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
11/10	St. Louis City	Away	2–6	L
27/09	Colorado Rapids	Home	3–2	W
20/09	Minnesota United FC	Away	3–2	W
13/09	Seattle Sounders	Home	1–1	D
10/09	Vancouver Whitecaps	Away	0–3	L

San Diego

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
10/10	New York Red Bulls	Away	1–4	L
27/09	Austin	Away	3–3	D
20/09	Inter Miami	Away	2–2	D
14/09	Philadelphia Union	Home	0–5	L
10/09	San Jose Earthquakes	Home	2–3	L

📊 Season Comparison — Major League Soccer

Los Angeles Galaxy #8 · 39 pts — San Diego #12 · 33 pts

Los Angeles Galaxy

Wins–Draws–Losses10W–9D–11L

W 10

D 9

L 11

Played30

Goals scored (avg)1.30

Goals conceded (avg)1.70

Clean sheets4

Failed to score4

Yellow cards62

Red cards6

xG for (avg)1.39

xG against (avg)1.82

Corners for (avg)6.10

Penalties (scored/missed)3/0

San Diego

Wins–Draws–Losses8W–9D–12L

W 8

D 9

L 12

Played29

Goals scored (avg)1.70

Goals conceded (avg)1.80

Clean sheets7

Failed to score5

Yellow cards56

Red cards8

xG for (avg)1.57

xG against (avg)1.95

Corners for (avg)4.60

Penalties (scored/missed)7/1

Los Angeles GalaxySan Diego

W 10

D 9

L 11

W 8

D 9

L 12

Played

Goals scored (avg)

1.30

1.70

Goals conceded (avg)

1.70

1.80

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Yellow cards

Red cards

xG for (avg)

1.39

1.57

xG against (avg)

1.82

1.95

Corners for (avg)

6.10

4.60

Penalties (scored/missed)

3/0

7/1

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Los Angeles Galaxy

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

San Diego

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

🏥 Injuries & Suspensions

Los Angeles Galaxy

❌ E. Cerrillo — Red Card
❌ I. Parente — Inactive
❌ R. Puig — Knee Injury
❌ C. Rindov — Injury
❌ E. Thommy — Injury
❌ C. Garces — Red Card
❌ Gabriel Pec — Red Card
❌ J. Paintsil — Hamstring Injury
❌ J. Glesnes — Calf Injury
❌ Matheus Nascimento — Injury
❌ Joao Klauss — Foot Injury
❌ J. Aude — Ankle Injury
❌ M. Yoshida — Knee Injury
❌ R. Ramos — International duty
❌ M. Yamane — Hip Injury
❌ R. Dalgado — Injury
❌ M. Reus — Inactive
❌ L. Sanabria — Red Card
❌ J. Marcinkowski — Red Card
❌ S. Roberto — Shoulder Injury
❌ H. Lozano — International duty
❌ K. Furuhashi — Hamstring Injury
❓ E. Wynder (doubtful) — Injury

San Diego

❌ A. Alvarado Jr — Knee Injury
❌ E. Boateng — Lower-Body Injury
❌ W. Eisner — Lower-Body Injury
❌ W. Kumado — Lower-Body Injury
❌ A. Reyes — Lower-Body Injury
❌ P. Sisniega — Red Card
❌ K. Sargeant — Lower-Body Injury
❌ C. McVey — Red Card
❌ A. Pellegrino — Lower-Body Injury
❌ I. Pilcher — Lower-Body Injury
❌ M. Duah — Red Card
❌ L. Bombino — Lower-Body Injury
❌ P. Soma — Lower-Body Injury
❌ J. Tverskov — Lower-Body Injury
❌ C. J. dos Santos — Injury
❌ A. Godoy — Lower-Body Injury
❌ A. Dreyer — Red Card
❌ M. Alstrup — Lower-Body Injury
❌ M. Ingvartsen — Injury
❌ Gabriel Pirani — Injury
❌ A. Mighten — Lower-Body Injury
❌ O. Verhoeven — Yellow Cards
❌ E. Achouri — International duty
❌ O. Valakari — International duty
❌ S. Vines — Lower-Body Injury
❌ O. Soe — Lower-Body Injury
❓ L. Morgan (doubtful) — Thigh Injury
❓ D. Vazquez (doubtful) — Lower-Body Injury

More: Major League Soccer predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws