Predictions β†’ Usa Major League Soccer

Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City

Next match: Thu, 15 Oct 2026 β€’ 00:30 UTC+3 β€’ Round 29 β€’ Geodis Park β€’ ☁️ 27.8Β°C, 11 km/h overcast

PREDICTLIX BEST BET
BTTS β€” No
Model 48.9% Β· Market best price β‰ˆ 45.5% Β· Edge +6.2 pp
Best odds 2.20 William Hill 2.20Betano 2.20Marathonbet 2.15
Bet this pick β†’
ΒΌ Kelly sizing: 1.6% of bank

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly β€” confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 1.29 β†’ 1.27 β–Ό2% 92% 83.9% 1.27 Betano 80.3% +3.6 pp
Double Chance 1X 81% 85% 1.08 BetVictor 92.5% -7.5 pp
BTTS No 81% 49.4% 2.20 William Hill 43.2% +6.2 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 82% 50.5% 1.33 BetVictor 72.9% -22.4 pp
Correct Score 2-0 68% 10.3% 9.75 Betano 7.1% +3.2 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.2 exp.) Under 9.5 61% 52.7% 1.95 Bet365 49% +3.7 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Nashville SC 2.03 – 0.76 Sporting Kansas City Β· expected total 2.79

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Nashville SC host Sporting Kansas City at Geodis Park in a Regular Season round 29 clash, and the stakes are lopsided. The visitors sit 15th on 22 points from 28 played, while Nashville's recent form of WWDLD reads far healthier than Kansas City's LWLWL.

The model sees a clear home edge. Nashville's expected goals stand at 2.026 against just 0.7636 for Sporting, and their recent xG of 2.04 towers over the away side's 1.44. That attacking gap drives a home win probability of 83.9 percent at 1.27, with the 1X double chance at 85 percent. Both teams to score is tipped No at 49.4 percent, though the 2.2 odds suggest the market is less certain than the model. Over 2.5 goals lands at 50.5 percent and is priced at 1.33, while the correct score leans toward 2-0 at 10.3 percent, with 2-0 (12.67), 1-0 (11.55) and 2-1 (9.68) leading the top scores. Corners are expected at 9.2, pointing to Under 9.5 at 52.7 percent.

Value may hide in the BTTS No at 2.2, where the model's 49.4 percent implies a fairer price near even money, and in the modest Over 2.5 edge. The honest caveat: both squads carry lengthy injury lists, and Nashville's own includes several doubtful names, so late fitness calls could shift the expected-goals picture before kickoff.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 16:09 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Nashville SC

Form (last 5)
WToronto FC (H) 2–0 Β· 27/09/2026WChicago Fire (H) 3–0 Β· 20/09/2026DInter Miami (A) 2–2 Β· 12/09/2026LToronto FC (A) 1–2 Β· 09/09/2026DNew York City FC (A) 0–0 Β· 04/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)2.00
Goals conceded (season avg)0.80
Win streak (best this season)5
xG for (recent avg)1.65
xG against (recent avg)1.06
Elo strength rating1447
Players out12

Sporting Kansas City

Form (last 5)
LSeattle Sounders (A) 1–2 Β· 02/10/2026WHouston Dynamo (A) 2–0 Β· 27/09/2026LPhiladelphia Union (H) 3–4 Β· 20/09/2026WLos Angeles FC (H) 3–1 Β· 13/09/2026LFC Dallas (A) 3–4 Β· 06/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.20
Goals conceded (season avg)2.40
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)1.44
xG against (recent avg)1.79
Elo strength rating1357
Players out19
Nashville SCSporting Kansas City
Goals scored (season avg)
2.00
1.20
Goals conceded (season avg)
0.80
2.40
Win streak (best this season)
5
2
xG for (recent avg)
1.65
1.44
xG against (recent avg)
1.06
1.79
Elo strength rating
1447
1357
Players out
12
19

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Nashville SC

Won 2 in a row Unbeaten 3
BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
4/6

Sporting Kansas City

BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
5/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Major League Soccer

Nashville SC

Best defence (0.80 conceded/game) Best clean sheets (13)

Sporting Kansas City

2nd worst attack (1.20 goals/game) 2nd worst clean sheets (1)

Rank among 30 Major League Soccer teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Nashville SC at home Β· Sporting Kansas City away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Nashville SC (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses13W–1D–0L
W 13
D 1
Played14
Goals scored (avg)2.90
Goals conceded (avg)0.90
Clean sheets6
Failed to score0

Sporting Kansas City (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–0D–11L
W 3
L 11
Played14
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)2.80
Clean sheets1
Failed to score6
Nashville SC (home)Sporting Kansas City (away)
W 13
D 1
W 3
L 11
Played
14
14
Goals scored (avg)
2.90
1.00
Goals conceded (avg)
0.90
2.80
Clean sheets
6
1
Failed to score
0
6

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

2–0
10.3%
1–0
9.4%
2–1
7.9%
3–0
7%
3–1
5.3%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Nashville SC 3 wins Β· 0 draws Β· Sporting Kansas City 2 wins Β· avg 3 goals Β· BTTS in 4 of 5

3
2
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
30 Jan 2024 Nashville SC 2–1 Sporting Kansas City Friendlies Clubs
21 Sep 2023 Sporting Kansas City 0–3 Nashville SC Major League Soccer
19 Jun 2022 Nashville SC 1–2 Sporting Kansas City Major League Soccer
10 Apr 2022 Sporting Kansas City 1–2 Nashville SC Major League Soccer
11 Oct 2020 Sporting Kansas City 2–1 Nashville SC Major League Soccer

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Nashville SC

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
27/09 Toronto FC Home 2–0 W
20/09 Chicago Fire Home 3–0 W
12/09 Inter Miami Away 2–2 D
09/09 Toronto FC Away 1–2 L
04/09 New York City FC Away 0–0 D

Sporting Kansas City

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
02/10 Seattle Sounders Away 1–2 L
27/09 Houston Dynamo Away 2–0 W
20/09 Philadelphia Union Home 3–4 L
13/09 Los Angeles FC Home 3–1 W
06/09 FC Dallas Away 3–4 L

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Major League Soccer

Nashville SC β€”  Sporting Kansas City #15 Β· 22 pts

Nashville SC

Played27
Goals scored (avg)2.00
Goals conceded (avg)0.80
Clean sheets13
Failed to score5
Yellow cards48
Red cards1
xG for (avg)1.65
xG against (avg)1.06
Corners for (avg)4.90
Penalties (scored/missed)3/0

Sporting Kansas City

Wins–Draws–Losses6W–4D–18L
W 6
D 4
L 18
Played28
Goals scored (avg)1.20
Goals conceded (avg)2.40
Clean sheets1
Failed to score9
Yellow cards49
Red cards3
xG for (avg)1.44
xG against (avg)1.79
Corners for (avg)4.50
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
Nashville SCSporting Kansas City
W 6
D 4
L 18
Played
27
28
Goals scored (avg)
2.00
1.20
Goals conceded (avg)
0.80
2.40
Clean sheets
13
1
Failed to score
5
9
Yellow cards
48
49
Red cards
1
3
xG for (avg)
1.65
1.44
xG against (avg)
1.06
1.79
Corners for (avg)
4.90
4.50
Penalties (scored/missed)
3/0
0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Nashville SC

2
0-15
5
4
16-30
11
3
31-45
9
3
46-60
9
6
61-75
7
3
76-90
14
scored conceded

Sporting Kansas City

9
0-15
3
7
16-30
8
14
31-45
8
8
46-60
4
13
61-75
7
12
76-90
4
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Nashville SC

  • ❌ M. Corcoran β€” Red Card
  • ❌ C. Applewhite β€” Leg Injury
  • ❌ T. Williams β€” Injury
  • ❌ E. Tagseth β€” Injury
  • ❌ P. Yazbek β€” Injury
  • ❌ A. Najar β€” Thigh Injury
  • ❌ C. Espinoza β€” Lower-Body Injury
  • ❌ W. Madrigal β€” Lower-Body Injury
  • ❌ A. Muyl β€” Lower-Body Injury
  • ❌ J. Willis β€” Lower-Body Injury
  • ❌ A. Qasem β€” International duty
  • ❌ B. Schwake β€” International duty
  • ❓ S. Mohammed (doubtful) β€” Inactive
  • ❓ X. Valdez (doubtful) β€” Illness
  • ❓ S. Surridge (doubtful) β€” Illness
  • ❓ R. Baker-Whiting (doubtful) β€” Injury

Sporting Kansas City

  • ❌ J. Kortkamp β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ R. Schewe β€” Hand Injury
  • ❌ Z. Bassong β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ J. Reynolds β€” Injury
  • ❌ I. James β€” Injury
  • ❌ S. Cleveland β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ W. Meyer β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ J. Reid β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ Diego Borges β€” Groin Injury
  • ❌ K. Agyabeng β€” Groin Injury
  • ❌ J. Miller β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ T. Calheira β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ L. Johnsen β€” Red Card
  • ❌ M. Mosquera β€” Red Card
  • ❌ Andre Luiz β€” Inactive
  • ❌ O. Blorian β€” Back Injury
  • ❌ J. Davis β€” Injury
  • ❌ O. Wolff β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ Capita β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❓ S. Afrifa (doubtful) β€” Hamstring Injury

More: Major League Soccer predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws