Orlando City SC vs New York City FC
Next match: Sat, 24 Oct 2026 β’ 23:30 UTC+3 β’ Round 31 β’ Exploria Stadium β’ π¦ 22.6Β°C, 18 km/h, 0.3mm drizzle
π― PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home | 80% | 45.4% | β | β | β | β |
| Double Chance | 1X | 71% | 71.5% | β | β | β | β |
| BTTS | Yes | 82% | 52% | β | β | β | β |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81% | 49.7% | β | β | β | β |
| Correct Score | 1-0 | 63% | 7.6% | β | β | β | β |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.4 exp.) | Over 9.5 | 63% | 53.8% | β | β | β | β |
β½ Model expected goals: Orlando City SC 1.57 β 1.10 New York City FC Β· expected total 2.67
π§ Match Preview
Orlando City host New York City FC at Exploria Stadium in a Regular Season round 31 clash, and the model leans toward the home side. Orlando's recent form reads WLLLW, while the visitors arrive on a patchy LDLWL, so neither team is arriving in convincing rhythm. The stakes are simple: three points at home against a direct conference rival.
What the model sees is a clear edge in attacking output for Orlando. Their expected goals sit at 1.5657, well above NYCFC's 1.102, and the recent underlying numbers back that up: 1.79 xG for the hosts against 1.24 for the away side. The head-to-head record is a warning, though, with NYCFC winning three of the last five meetings, including a 5-0 rout in March 2026. Both squads list lengthy injury and doubt columns, which adds volatility to any read.
The headline tip is a Home win at 45.4 percent with a confidence rating of 80. Double chance 1X lands at 71.5 percent, the safest route into this fixture. Both teams to score is called Yes at 52 percent, while Over 2.5 goals sits at 49.7 percent. The most likely correct score is 1-0 at 7.6 percent, with 2-1 and 2-0 close behind. Corners offer a separate angle: Over 9.5 is tipped at 53.8 percent with an expected 10.4.
The honest caveat is that 45.4 percent is not dominance, and a 5-0 defeat in the most recent meeting shows how badly this matchup can swing. Treat the home win as a lean, not a lock.
What the model sees is a clear edge in attacking output for Orlando. Their expected goals sit at 1.5657, well above NYCFC's 1.102, and the recent underlying numbers back that up: 1.79 xG for the hosts against 1.24 for the away side. The head-to-head record is a warning, though, with NYCFC winning three of the last five meetings, including a 5-0 rout in March 2026. Both squads list lengthy injury and doubt columns, which adds volatility to any read.
The headline tip is a Home win at 45.4 percent with a confidence rating of 80. Double chance 1X lands at 71.5 percent, the safest route into this fixture. Both teams to score is called Yes at 52 percent, while Over 2.5 goals sits at 49.7 percent. The most likely correct score is 1-0 at 7.6 percent, with 2-1 and 2-0 close behind. Corners offer a separate angle: Over 9.5 is tipped at 53.8 percent with an expected 10.4.
The honest caveat is that 45.4 percent is not dominance, and a 5-0 defeat in the most recent meeting shows how badly this matchup can swing. Treat the home win as a lean, not a lock.
Updated 16 Oct 2026, 04:11 UTC+3 β refreshed when the underlying data changes.
π What Drives the Prediction
Orlando City SC
Form (last 5)
Goals scored (season avg)1.80
Goals conceded (season avg)2.40
Win streak (best this season)3
xG for (recent avg)1.40
xG against (recent avg)1.36
Elo strength rating1400
Players out19
New York City FC
Form (last 5)
Goals scored (season avg)1.50
Goals conceded (season avg)1.40
Win streak (best this season)3
xG for (recent avg)1.00
xG against (recent avg)1.01
Elo strength rating1321
Players out18
Orlando City SCNew York City FC
Goals scored (season avg)
1.80
1.50
Goals conceded (season avg)
2.40
1.40
Win streak (best this season)
3
3
xG for (recent avg)
1.40
1.00
xG against (recent avg)
1.36
1.01
Elo strength rating
1400
1321
Players out
19
18
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β each published with an evidence level (AβD) in How we predict β including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
π Team Trends
Orlando City SC
BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
6/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
1/6
New York City FC
Winless 3
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
2/6
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
π League Benchmarks β Major League Soccer
Orlando City SC
2nd best BTTS rate (83%)
Best Over 2.5 rate (100%)
New York City FC
No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.
Rank among 30 Major League Soccer teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
π Home vs Away Records
Orlando City SC at home Β· New York City FC away β the split that matters for this fixture.
Orlando City SC (home)
WinsβDrawsβLosses8Wβ2Dβ4L
W 8
D 2
L 4
Played14
Goals scored (avg)1.90
Goals conceded (avg)1.40
Clean sheets3
Failed to score1
New York City FC (away)
WinsβDrawsβLosses4Wβ5Dβ5L
W 4
D 5
L 5
Played14
Goals scored (avg)1.10
Goals conceded (avg)1.20
Clean sheets2
Failed to score2
Orlando City SC (home)New York City FC (away)
W 8
D 2
L 4
W 4
D 5
L 5
Played
14
14
Goals scored (avg)
1.90
1.10
Goals conceded (avg)
1.40
1.20
Clean sheets
3
2
Failed to score
1
2
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
π― Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
βοΈ Head-to-Head
New York City FC 6 wins Β· 2 draws Β· Orlando City SC 1 win Β· avg 3.2 goals Β· BTTS in 7 of 9
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Mar 2026 | New York City FC | 5β0 | Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer |
| 17 Jul 2025 | Orlando City SC | 1β2 | New York City FC | Major League Soccer |
| 09 Mar 2025 | New York City FC | 2β1 | Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer |
| 20 Jul 2024 | Orlando City SC | 1β1 | New York City FC | Major League Soccer |
| 28 Jun 2024 | New York City FC | 4β2 | Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer |
| 20 Sep 2023 | New York City FC | 2β0 | Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer |
| 17 May 2023 | Orlando City SC | 1β1 | New York City FC | Major League Soccer |
| 02 Oct 2022 | New York City FC | 2β1 | Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer |
| 28 Aug 2022 | Orlando City SC | 2β1 | New York City FC | Major League Soccer |
π Recent Form
Orlando City SC
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Columbus Crew | Home | 3β2 | W |
| 26/09 | Philadelphia Union | Away | 2β4 | L |
| 19/09 | New England Revolution | Away | 2β4 | L |
| 16/09 | Columbus Crew | Away | 1β2 | L |
| 12/09 | Toronto FC | Home | 3β0 | W |
New York City FC
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Chicago Fire | Away | 1β2 | L |
| 26/09 | Atlanta United FC | Away | 2β2 | D |
| 18/09 | New York Red Bulls | Home | 0β1 | L |
| 13/09 | Real Salt Lake | Away | 2β0 | W |
| 10/09 | New England Revolution | Home | 1β2 | L |
π Season Comparison β Major League Soccer
Orlando City SC
Played28
Goals scored (avg)1.80
Goals conceded (avg)2.40
Clean sheets4
Failed to score5
Yellow cards64
Red cards2
xG for (avg)1.40
xG against (avg)1.36
Corners for (avg)4.20
Penalties (scored/missed)4/0
New York City FC
Played28
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.40
Clean sheets5
Failed to score5
Yellow cards47
Red cards1
xG for (avg)1.00
xG against (avg)1.01
Corners for (avg)5.00
Penalties (scored/missed)7/0
Orlando City SCNew York City FC
Played
28
28
Goals scored (avg)
1.80
1.50
Goals conceded (avg)
2.40
1.40
Clean sheets
4
5
Failed to score
5
5
Yellow cards
64
47
Red cards
2
1
xG for (avg)
1.40
1.00
xG against (avg)
1.36
1.01
Corners for (avg)
4.20
5.00
Penalties (scored/missed)
4/0
7/0
β±οΈ Goal Timing (season)
Orlando City SC
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
scored conceded
New York City FC
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
scored conceded
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
π₯ Injuries & Suspensions
Orlando City SC
- β R. Jansson β Foot Injury
- β Luis Otavio β Injury
- β W. Cartagena β Thigh Injury
- β C. Guske β Red Card
- β M. Crepeau β Red Card
- β E. Atuesta β Thigh Injury
- β D. Brekalo β Lower-Body Injury
- β T. Spicer β Thigh Injury
- β D. McGuire β Injury
- β G. Dorsey β Thigh Injury
- β M. Pasalic β Thigh Injury
- β N. Miller β Knee Injury
- β M. Ojeda β Thigh Injury
- β B. Ojeda β Foot Injury
- β B. Rhein β Muscle Injury
- β A. Gomez β Thigh Injury
- β A. Griezmann β Thigh Injury
- β Iago Teodoro β Suspended
- β J. Ellis β International duty
- β J. Gerbet (doubtful) β Knee Injury
- β A. Marin (doubtful) β Thigh Injury
- β Tiago (doubtful) β Leg Injury
New York City FC
- β M. Jones β Broken Leg
- β A. Martinez β Knee Injury
- β A. Perea β Leg Injury
- β D. Baiera β Knee Injury
- β H. Wolf β Leg Injury
- β T. Gray β Red Card
- β K. O'Toole β Leg Injury
- β Talles Magno β Injury
- β A. O'Neill β Ankle Injury
- β M. Moralez β Knee Injury
- β K. Parks β Groin Injury
- β K. Trewin β Ankle Injury
- β A. Farnos β Injury
- β Raul Gustavo β Leg Injury
- β Thiago Martins β Leg Injury
- β N. Mercau β Yellow Cards
- β M. Freese β International duty
- β M. Ilenic β International duty
More: Major League Soccer predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws