Predictions β†’ Usa Major League Soccer

New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC

Next match: Sat, 17 Oct 2026 β€’ 23:30 UTC+3 β€’ Round 30 β€’ Sports Illustrated Stadium β€’ β˜€οΈ 1.7Β°C, 19 km/h clear

PREDICTLIX BEST BET
BTTS β€” No
Model 48.9% Β· Market best price β‰ˆ 33.3% Β· Edge +17.0 pp
Best odds 3.00 BetVictor 3.00Betano 2.90Marathonbet 2.88
Bet this pick β†’
ΒΌ Kelly sizing: 5.5% of bank

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly β€” confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 80% 47.2% 2.12 Betano 46.9% +0.3 pp
Double Chance 1X 74% 76.2% 1.38 Marathonbet 70.2% +6 pp
BTTS No 81% 48.8% 3.00 BetVictor 31.8% +17 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 80% 47.3% 3.00 BetVictor 32.4% +14.9 pp
Correct Score 1-0 68% 10.1% 13.75 Marathonbet 5.7% +4.4 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.5 exp.) Over 9.5 63% 54.1% 1.55 Betano 60.3% -6.2 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: New York Red Bulls 1.53 – 0.89 Toronto FC Β· expected total 2.42

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

New York Red Bulls host Toronto FC at Sports Illustrated Stadium in a Regular Season round 30 clash, and the model leans firmly toward the home side. The Red Bulls' recent form reads LWWLD, while Toronto arrive on WLLLW, a patchy run that leaves them vulnerable on the road.

The numbers behind the prediction point the same way. Expected goals favour the hosts at 1.5251 against Toronto's 0.8914, though recent shot quality tells a slightly messier story: the Red Bulls have generated 1.23 xG lately, while Toronto's 1.49 xG recent figure is actually higher. History offers little separation either, with the last two meetings finishing 1-1 and the previous five producing two draws alongside three Red Bull wins. Both squads are heavily depleted, with lengthy injury lists on each side, so squad rotation and late fitness calls could shape the tempo.

The headline tip is a home win at 47.2% probability, priced at 2.12, with double chance 1X rated at 76.2%. Both teams to score is tipped No at 48.8% (odds 3), and Under 2.5 goals carries 47.3% at odds of 3. The most likely correct score is 1-0 at 10.1%, with 2-0 and 2-1 close behind. Corners offer a separate angle: Over 9.5 is expected at 10.5 corners, a 54.1% probability.

The honest caveat is that none of these probabilities are overwhelming. A 47.2% home win and a 47.3% Under 2.5 are essentially coin flips, and Toronto's superior recent xG suggests the away side can frustrate. Treat the home win as a lean, not a lock.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 16:09 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

New York Red Bulls

Form (last 5)
LSt. Louis City (H) 0–3 Β· 30/09/2026WNew York City FC (A) 1–0 Β· 18/09/2026WColumbus Crew (A) 1–0 Β· 12/09/2026LLos Angeles FC (A) 0–2 Β· 10/09/2026DSeattle Sounders (A) 0–0 Β· 06/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.30
Goals conceded (season avg)1.90
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)1.23
xG against (recent avg)1.94
Elo strength rating1383
Players out17

Toronto FC

Form (last 5)
WCF Montreal (H) 2–1 Β· 10/10/2026LNashville SC (A) 0–2 Β· 27/09/2026LSt. Louis City (A) 1–3 Β· 20/09/2026LOrlando City SC (A) 0–3 Β· 12/09/2026WNashville SC (H) 2–1 Β· 09/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.50
Goals conceded (season avg)1.90
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)1.21
xG against (recent avg)1.58
Elo strength rating1321
Players out23
New York Red BullsToronto FC
Goals scored (season avg)
1.30
1.50
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.90
1.90
Win streak (best this season)
2
2
xG for (recent avg)
1.23
1.21
xG against (recent avg)
1.94
1.58
Elo strength rating
1383
1321
Players out
17
23

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

New York Red Bulls

BTTS
1/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
3/6
Clean sheets
3/6

Toronto FC

BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
5/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
0/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Major League Soccer

New York Red Bulls

Worst BTTS rate (17%) 2nd worst Over 2.5 rate (33%)

Toronto FC

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Rank among 30 Major League Soccer teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

New York Red Bulls at home Β· Toronto FC away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

New York Red Bulls (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–3D–6L
W 4
D 3
L 6
Played13
Goals scored (avg)1.40
Goals conceded (avg)2.00
Clean sheets1
Failed to score5

Toronto FC (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–3D–8L
W 2
D 3
L 8
Played13
Goals scored (avg)0.80
Goals conceded (avg)1.80
Clean sheets3
Failed to score5
New York Red Bulls (home)Toronto FC (away)
W 4
D 3
L 6
W 2
D 3
L 8
Played
13
13
Goals scored (avg)
1.40
0.80
Goals conceded (avg)
2.00
1.80
Clean sheets
1
3
Failed to score
5
5

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
10.1%
2–0
8.5%
2–1
7.5%
3–0
4.3%
3–1
3.8%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

New York Red Bulls 6 wins Β· 3 draws Β· Toronto FC 0 wins Β· avg 2.8 goals Β· BTTS in 5 of 9

6
3
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
14 Mar 2026 Toronto FC 1–1 New York Red Bulls Major League Soccer
25 Jun 2025 Toronto FC 1–1 New York Red Bulls Major League Soccer
22 Mar 2025 New York Red Bulls 2–1 Toronto FC Major League Soccer
02 Oct 2024 Toronto FC 1–4 New York Red Bulls Major League Soccer
22 Jun 2024 New York Red Bulls 3–0 Toronto FC Major League Soccer
07 Oct 2023 New York Red Bulls 3–0 Toronto FC Major League Soccer
17 May 2023 Toronto FC 0–0 New York Red Bulls Major League Soccer
18 Jun 2022 New York Red Bulls 2–0 Toronto FC Major League Soccer
05 Mar 2022 Toronto FC 1–4 New York Red Bulls Major League Soccer

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

New York Red Bulls

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
30/09 St. Louis City Home 0–3 L
18/09 New York City FC Away 1–0 W
12/09 Columbus Crew Away 1–0 W
10/09 Los Angeles FC Away 0–2 L
06/09 Seattle Sounders Away 0–0 D

Toronto FC

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 CF Montreal Home 2–1 W
27/09 Nashville SC Away 0–2 L
20/09 St. Louis City Away 1–3 L
12/09 Orlando City SC Away 0–3 L
09/09 Nashville SC Home 2–1 W

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Major League Soccer

New York Red Bulls

Played27
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)1.90
Clean sheets4
Failed to score8
Yellow cards56
Red cards2
xG for (avg)1.23
xG against (avg)1.94
Corners for (avg)4.90
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0

Toronto FC

Played28
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.90
Clean sheets3
Failed to score5
Yellow cards49
Red cards3
xG for (avg)1.21
xG against (avg)1.58
Corners for (avg)4.20
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
New York Red BullsToronto FC
Played
27
28
Goals scored (avg)
1.30
1.50
Goals conceded (avg)
1.90
1.90
Clean sheets
4
3
Failed to score
8
5
Yellow cards
56
49
Red cards
2
3
xG for (avg)
1.23
1.21
xG against (avg)
1.94
1.58
Corners for (avg)
4.90
4.20
Penalties (scored/missed)
1/0
0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

New York Red Bulls

7
0-15
7
4
16-30
2
8
31-45
7
12
46-60
6
10
61-75
2
12
76-90
8
scored conceded

Toronto FC

6
0-15
4
7
16-30
2
10
31-45
6
9
46-60
6
7
61-75
8
13
76-90
15
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

New York Red Bulls

  • ❌ C. Harper β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ A. Marcucci β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ M. Sofo β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ J. Che β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ G. Berggren β€” Red Card
  • ❌ E. M. Choupo-Moting β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ M. Dos Santos β€” Calf Injury
  • ❌ E. Forsberg β€” Hip Injury
  • ❌ R. Mosquera β€” Thigh Injury
  • ❌ A. Mehmeti β€” Red Card
  • ❌ J. Ruvalcaba β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ O. Valencia β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ E. Lomdono β€” Injury
  • ❌ J. Marshall-Rutty β€” Injury
  • ❌ J. Hall β€” International duty
  • ❌ M. Jimenez β€” International duty
  • ❌ D. Ruiz β€” International duty
  • ❓ R. Donkor (doubtful) β€” Knee Injury
  • ❓ D. Nealis (doubtful) β€” Ankle Injury

Toronto FC

  • ❌ T. Corbeanu β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ A. De Rosario β€” Hand Injury
  • ❌ N. Gomis β€” Achilles Tendon Injury
  • ❌ D. Kerr β€” Groin Injury
  • ❌ Matheus Pereira β€” Groin Injury
  • ❌ Z. Monlouis β€” Lower-Body Injury
  • ❌ H. Wingo β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ J. Vilsaint β€” Illness
  • ❌ K. Thompson β€” Inactive
  • ❌ R. Edwards β€” Red Card
  • ❌ D. Mihailovic β€” Pelvis Injury
  • ❌ W. Zimmerman β€” Calf Injury
  • ❌ B. Kuscevic β€” Groin Injury
  • ❌ R. Laryea β€” Injury
  • ❌ J. Cifuentes β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ J. Sargent β€” Thigh Injury
  • ❌ L. Stefanovic β€” Injury
  • ❌ M. Cimermancic β€” Thigh Injury
  • ❌ J. Osorio β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ N. Palacio β€” Lower-Body Injury
  • ❌ N. Dorsch β€” Face Injury
  • ❌ D. Dixon β€” Injury
  • ❌ R. Chukwu β€” International duty

More: Major League Soccer predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws