Predictions β†’ Usa Major League Soccer

Sporting Kansas City vs Real Salt Lake

Next match: Sun, 18 Oct 2026 β€’ 00:30 UTC+3 β€’ Round 30 β€’ Children's Mercy Park β€’ β˜€οΈ 10.6Β°C, 9 km/h clear

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Away 2.34 β†’ 2.3 β–Ό2% 75% 33% 2.30 Betano 43% -10 pp
Double Chance 12 69% 68.7% 1.27 Betano 76.3% -7.6 pp
BTTS Yes 82% 51% 1.40 William Hill 67.3% -16.3 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 81% 49.6% 1.50 Betano 65.8% -16.2 pp
Correct Score 0-1 60% 5.4% 13.00 William Hill 6.1% -0.7 pp
Draw (value pick) Draw 55% 26.4% 3.95 Dafabet 23.7% +2.7 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.8 exp.) Over 9.5 64% 54.8% 1.75 Betano 53.6% +1.2 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Sporting Kansas City 1.48 – 1.07 Real Salt Lake Β· expected total 2.55

🧠 Match Preview

Sporting Kansas City host Real Salt Lake at Children's Mercy Park on Sunday with little left to play for beyond pride, and the table tells the story: the home side sit 15th on 22 points from 29 games, while the visitors are 11th on 33 points from the same number of matches. Recent form offers little comfort either, with Kansas City on DLWLW and Salt Lake on LWLLL.

The model leans toward the away side, giving Real Salt Lake a 33 percent win probability at odds of 2.3, with a 75 confidence rating. The double chance covering the draw and away win carries a 68.7 percent probability. Goals look likely: both teams to score is priced at 1.4 with a 51 percent probability, and over 2.5 goals sits at 1.5 with a 49.6 percent chance. The expected goals numbers are tight, with the home side at 1.4792 and the away side at 1.0713, though recent xG actually favours Salt Lake at 1.59 against 1.44. The most likely correct score is 0-1 at 7.13 percent, part of a 5.4 percent top-pick probability. Corners offer interest too, with over 9.5 expected at 10.8 and a 54.8 percent probability. The draw is rated at 26.4 percent with 55 confidence.

The obvious caveat is the injury picture, which is enormous on both sides, with Kansas City listing twenty names including S. Afrifa as doubtful and Salt Lake listing twenty-four. With squads this depleted, form and xG can be misleading, so treat the numbers as a guide rather than gospel.

Updated 16 Oct 2026, 04:11 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Sporting Kansas City

Form (last 5)
DPortland Timbers (H) 3–3 Β· 11/10/2026LSeattle Sounders (A) 1–2 Β· 02/10/2026WHouston Dynamo (A) 2–0 Β· 27/09/2026LPhiladelphia Union (H) 3–4 Β· 20/09/2026WLos Angeles FC (H) 3–1 Β· 13/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.30
Goals conceded (season avg)2.40
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)1.44
xG against (recent avg)1.79
Elo strength rating1339
Players out19

Real Salt Lake

Form (last 5)
LPhiladelphia Union (A) 1–2 Β· 10/10/2026WNew England Revolution (H) 3–0 Β· 27/09/2026LSeattle Sounders (A) 0–2 Β· 24/09/2026LVancouver Whitecaps (H) 0–3 Β· 20/09/2026LNew York City FC (H) 0–2 Β· 13/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.50
Goals conceded (season avg)1.60
Win streak (best this season)3
xG for (recent avg)0.87
xG against (recent avg)0.97
Elo strength rating1403
Players out24
Sporting Kansas CityReal Salt Lake
Goals scored (season avg)
1.30
1.50
Goals conceded (season avg)
2.40
1.60
Win streak (best this season)
2
3
xG for (recent avg)
1.44
0.87
xG against (recent avg)
1.79
0.97
Elo strength rating
1339
1403
Players out
19
24

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Sporting Kansas City

BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
5/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Real Salt Lake

BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
3/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Major League Soccer

Sporting Kansas City

2nd best BTTS rate (83%) 2nd worst clean sheets (1)

Real Salt Lake

2nd worst BTTS rate (33%)

Rank among 30 Major League Soccer teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Sporting Kansas City at home Β· Real Salt Lake away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Sporting Kansas City (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–4D–7L
W 3
D 4
L 7
Played14
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)2.10
Clean sheets0
Failed to score3

Real Salt Lake (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–3D–10L
W 1
D 3
L 10
Played14
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)1.90
Clean sheets0
Failed to score3
Sporting Kansas City (home)Real Salt Lake (away)
W 3
D 4
L 7
W 1
D 3
L 10
Played
14
14
Goals scored (avg)
1.50
1.00
Goals conceded (avg)
2.10
1.90
Clean sheets
0
0
Failed to score
3
3

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

0–1
5.4%
1–2
5%
0–2
3.4%
1–3
1.8%
2–3
1.3%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Real Salt Lake 5 wins Β· 3 draws Β· Sporting Kansas City 2 wins Β· avg 3.4 goals Β· BTTS in 7 of 10

5
3
2
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
04 Apr 2026 Real Salt Lake 3–1 Sporting Kansas City Major League Soccer
14 Sep 2025 Real Salt Lake 2–1 Sporting Kansas City Major League Soccer
29 Jun 2025 Sporting Kansas City 1–1 Real Salt Lake Major League Soccer
20 Jun 2024 Sporting Kansas City 3–4 Real Salt Lake Major League Soccer
05 May 2024 Real Salt Lake 1–0 Sporting Kansas City Major League Soccer
08 Oct 2023 Real Salt Lake 2–3 Sporting Kansas City Major League Soccer
13 Jul 2023 Sporting Kansas City 2–2 Real Salt Lake Major League Soccer
08 Feb 2023 Sporting Kansas City 2–2 Real Salt Lake Friendlies Clubs
18 Jul 2022 Real Salt Lake 3–0 Sporting Kansas City Major League Soccer
27 Mar 2022 Sporting Kansas City 1–0 Real Salt Lake Major League Soccer

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Sporting Kansas City

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
11/10 Portland Timbers Home 3–3 D
02/10 Seattle Sounders Away 1–2 L
27/09 Houston Dynamo Away 2–0 W
20/09 Philadelphia Union Home 3–4 L
13/09 Los Angeles FC Home 3–1 W

Real Salt Lake

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Philadelphia Union Away 1–2 L
27/09 New England Revolution Home 3–0 W
24/09 Seattle Sounders Away 0–2 L
20/09 Vancouver Whitecaps Home 0–3 L
13/09 New York City FC Home 0–2 L

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Major League Soccer

Sporting Kansas City #15 Β· 22 pts β€”  Real Salt Lake #11 Β· 33 pts

Sporting Kansas City

Wins–Draws–Losses6W–4D–19L
W 6
D 4
L 19
Played29
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)2.40
Clean sheets1
Failed to score9
Yellow cards49
Red cards3
xG for (avg)1.44
xG against (avg)1.79
Corners for (avg)4.50
Penalties (scored/missed)0/1

Real Salt Lake

Wins–Draws–Losses9W–6D–14L
W 9
D 6
L 14
Played29
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.60
Clean sheets3
Failed to score6
Yellow cards64
Red cards1
xG for (avg)0.87
xG against (avg)0.97
Corners for (avg)6.30
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
Sporting Kansas CityReal Salt Lake
W 6
D 4
L 19
W 9
D 6
L 14
Played
29
29
Goals scored (avg)
1.30
1.50
Goals conceded (avg)
2.40
1.60
Clean sheets
1
3
Failed to score
9
6
Yellow cards
49
64
Red cards
3
1
xG for (avg)
1.44
0.87
xG against (avg)
1.79
0.97
Corners for (avg)
4.50
6.30
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/1
0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Sporting Kansas City

10
0-15
3
7
16-30
8
15
31-45
9
8
46-60
4
14
61-75
9
12
76-90
4
scored conceded

Real Salt Lake

6
0-15
5
8
16-30
8
7
31-45
6
9
46-60
5
8
61-75
6
10
76-90
9
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Sporting Kansas City

  • ❌ J. Kortkamp β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ R. Schewe β€” Hand Injury
  • ❌ Z. Bassong β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ J. Reynolds β€” Injury
  • ❌ I. James β€” Injury
  • ❌ S. Cleveland β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ W. Meyer β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ J. Reid β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ Diego Borges β€” Groin Injury
  • ❌ K. Agyabeng β€” Groin Injury
  • ❌ J. Miller β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ T. Calheira β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ L. Johnsen β€” Red Card
  • ❌ M. Mosquera β€” Red Card
  • ❌ Andre Luiz β€” Inactive
  • ❌ O. Blorian β€” Back Injury
  • ❌ J. Davis β€” Injury
  • ❌ O. Wolff β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ Capita β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❓ S. Afrifa (doubtful) β€” Hamstring Injury

Real Salt Lake

  • ❌ E. Eneli β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ K. Henry β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ D. Luna β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ V. Olatunji β€” Eye injury
  • ❌ D. Yedlin β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ J. J. Arias β€” Inactive
  • ❌ A. Piol β€” Achilles Tendon Injury
  • ❌ T. Wolff β€” Shoulder Injury
  • ❌ Z. Booth β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ A. Hezarkhani β€” Groin Injury
  • ❌ J. Sanabria β€” Injury
  • ❌ J. Barea β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ P. Quinton β€” Leg Injury
  • ❌ L. Engel β€” Hip Injury
  • ❌ J. Glad β€” Groin Injury
  • ❌ M. Guilavogui β€” Red Card
  • ❌ G. Dillon β€” Foot Injury
  • ❌ S. Spierings β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ S. Junqua β€” Concussion
  • ❌ L. De Fougerolles β€” International duty
  • ❌ A. Katranis β€” Groin Injury
  • ❌ D. Zagar β€” Inactive
  • ❌ S. Lobjanidze β€” International duty
  • ❌ L. Moisa β€” International duty

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