Bayern München vs Arsenal
Next match: Wed, 21 Oct 2026 • 19:00 UTC+3 • League Stage - 3 • Allianz Arena • ⛅ 9.6°C, 4 km/h partly cloudy
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home | 80% | 47.2% | 2.23 | 1xBet | 45.3% | +1.9 pp |
| Double Chance | 12 | 73% | 74.6% | 1.30 | 1xBet | 75.7% | -1.1 pp |
| BTTS | Yes | 82% | 51.5% | 1.53 | William Hill | 62.5% | -11 pp |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 86% | 57.7% | 1.68 | 1xBet | 59% | -1.3 pp |
| Correct Score | 2-1 | 63% | 7.4% | 9.25 | Betano | 5.7% | +1.7 pp |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.1 exp.) | Over 9.5 | 62% | 53.4% | — | — | — | — |
⚽ Model expected goals: Bayern München 2.16 – 1.36 Arsenal · expected total 3.52
🧠 Match Preview
Bayern München host Arsenal at the Allianz Arena on Wednesday, 21 October 2026, with both sides still jockeying for position in the Champions League league stage. Arsenal arrive seventh on 6 points from 2 games, while Bayern sit tenth on 4 points from 2, so the hosts carry more urgency into this one.
The model leans toward Bayern, giving the home win a 47.2 percent probability at odds of 2.23, with confidence rated 80. Bayern's recent form reads DWWWD, Arsenal's WLWWW. The expected goals split favours the Germans clearly: 2.1592 for Bayern against 1.3628 for Arsenal, and recent xG backs that up at 2.48 versus 1.95. Both defences are stretched, though — Bayern are without T. Buchmann, J. Musiala and S. Gnabry, while Arsenal miss C. Mosquera, W. Saliba, J. Timber, P. Hincapie, C. Tzolis and M. Zubimendi.
The headline tips: Over 2.5 goals at 57.7 percent (odds 1.68), both teams to score at 51.5 percent (1.53), and double chance 12 at 74.6 percent. The correct score model likes 2-1 at 7.4 percent, with 2-0, 3-1, 1-0 and 3-0 trailing. Corners point to Over 9.5, expected 10.1 at 53.4 percent. Value may hide in the home win if you trust the xG gap over the raw 2.23 price.
The honest caveat: Arsenal have won three of their last five and beat Bayern 3-1 in the most recent meeting, so the away side is no pushover despite the numbers.
The model leans toward Bayern, giving the home win a 47.2 percent probability at odds of 2.23, with confidence rated 80. Bayern's recent form reads DWWWD, Arsenal's WLWWW. The expected goals split favours the Germans clearly: 2.1592 for Bayern against 1.3628 for Arsenal, and recent xG backs that up at 2.48 versus 1.95. Both defences are stretched, though — Bayern are without T. Buchmann, J. Musiala and S. Gnabry, while Arsenal miss C. Mosquera, W. Saliba, J. Timber, P. Hincapie, C. Tzolis and M. Zubimendi.
The headline tips: Over 2.5 goals at 57.7 percent (odds 1.68), both teams to score at 51.5 percent (1.53), and double chance 12 at 74.6 percent. The correct score model likes 2-1 at 7.4 percent, with 2-0, 3-1, 1-0 and 3-0 trailing. Corners point to Over 9.5, expected 10.1 at 53.4 percent. Value may hide in the home win if you trust the xG gap over the raw 2.23 price.
The honest caveat: Arsenal have won three of their last five and beat Bayern 3-1 in the most recent meeting, so the away side is no pushover despite the numbers.
Updated 16 Oct 2026, 05:07 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Bayern München
Form (last 5)
DFC Augsburg (A) 2–2 · 10/10/2026WUnion Berlin (H) 7–0 · 18/09/2026WSV Elversberg (A) 2–1 · 13/09/2026WBodo/Glimt (H) 5–0 · 10/09/2026DFC Schalke 04 (A) 0–0 · 05/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)5.00
Goals conceded (season avg)0.00
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)0.97
xG against (recent avg)0.26
Elo strength rating1900
Players out3
Arsenal
Form (last 5)
WLeeds (H) 2–1 · 10/10/2026LBrighton (A) 0–3 · 19/09/2026WIpswich (A) 4–2 · 15/09/2026WSunderland (A) 2–0 · 12/09/2026WNapoli (A) 1–0 · 09/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.00
Goals conceded (season avg)0.00
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)0.61
xG against (recent avg)0.39
Elo strength rating1939
Players out6
Bayern MünchenArsenal
DFC Augsburg (A) 2–2 · 10/10/2026WUnion Berlin (H) 7–0 · 18/09/2026WSV Elversberg (A) 2–1 · 13/09/2026WBodo/Glimt (H) 5–0 · 10/09/2026DFC Schalke 04 (A) 0–0 · 05/09/2026
WLeeds (H) 2–1 · 10/10/2026LBrighton (A) 0–3 · 19/09/2026WIpswich (A) 4–2 · 15/09/2026WSunderland (A) 2–0 · 12/09/2026WNapoli (A) 1–0 · 09/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)
5.00
1.00
Goals conceded (season avg)
0.00
0.00
Win streak (best this season)
1
1
xG for (recent avg)
0.97
0.61
xG against (recent avg)
0.26
0.39
Elo strength rating
1900
1939
Players out
3
6
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Bayern München
Unbeaten 10
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
5/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
3/6
Arsenal
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
2/6
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Bayern München at home · Arsenal away — the split that matters for this fixture.
Bayern München (home)
Wins–Draws–Losses1W–0D–0L
W 1
Played1
Goals scored (avg)5.00
Goals conceded (avg)0.00
Clean sheets1
Failed to score0
Arsenal (away)
Wins–Draws–Losses1W–0D–0L
W 1
Played1
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)0.00
Clean sheets1
Failed to score0
Bayern München (home)Arsenal (away)
W 1
W 1
Played
1
1
Goals scored (avg)
5.00
1.00
Goals conceded (avg)
0.00
0.00
Clean sheets
1
1
Failed to score
0
0
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Arsenal 3 wins · 3 draws · Bayern München 4 wins · avg 3.6 goals · BTTS in 8 of 10
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Nov 2025 | Arsenal | 3–1 | Bayern München | UEFA Champions League |
| 17 Apr 2024 | Bayern Munich | 1–0 | Arsenal | UEFA Champions League |
| 09 Apr 2024 | Arsenal | 2–2 | Bayern Munich | UEFA Champions League |
| 18 Jul 2019 | Arsenal | 2–1 | Bayern Munich | International Champions Cup |
| 19 Jul 2017 | Bayern Munich | 1–1 | Arsenal | International Champions Cup |
| 07 Mar 2017 | Arsenal | 1–5 | Bayern Munich | UEFA Champions League |
| 15 Feb 2017 | Bayern Munich | 5–1 | Arsenal | UEFA Champions League |
| 04 Nov 2015 | Bayern Munich | 5–1 | Arsenal | UEFA Champions League |
| 20 Oct 2015 | Arsenal | 2–0 | Bayern Munich | UEFA Champions League |
| 11 Mar 2014 | Bayern Munich | 1–1 | Arsenal | UEFA Champions League |
📈 Recent Form
Bayern München
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | FC Augsburg | Away | 2–2 | D |
| 18/09 | Union Berlin | Home | 7–0 | W |
| 13/09 | SV Elversberg | Away | 2–1 | W |
| 10/09 | Bodo/Glimt | Home | 5–0 | W |
| 05/09 | FC Schalke 04 | Away | 0–0 | D |
Arsenal
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Leeds | Home | 2–1 | W |
| 19/09 | Brighton | Away | 0–3 | L |
| 15/09 | Ipswich | Away | 4–2 | W |
| 12/09 | Sunderland | Away | 2–0 | W |
| 09/09 | Napoli | Away | 1–0 | W |
📊 Season Comparison — UEFA Champions League
Bayern München #10 · 4 pts — Arsenal #7 · 6 pts
Bayern München
Wins–Draws–Losses1W–1D–0L
W 1
D 1
Played2
Goals scored (avg)5.00
Goals conceded (avg)0.00
Clean sheets1
Failed to score0
Yellow cards0
Red cards0
xG for (avg)0.97
xG against (avg)0.26
Corners for (avg)8.60
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
Arsenal
Wins–Draws–Losses2W–0D–0L
W 2
Played2
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)0.00
Clean sheets1
Failed to score0
Yellow cards1
Red cards0
xG for (avg)0.61
xG against (avg)0.39
Corners for (avg)4.20
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
Bayern MünchenArsenal
W 1
D 1
W 2
Played
2
2
Goals scored (avg)
5.00
1.00
Goals conceded (avg)
0.00
0.00
Clean sheets
1
1
Failed to score
0
0
Yellow cards
0
1
Red cards
0
0
xG for (avg)
0.97
0.61
xG against (avg)
0.26
0.39
Corners for (avg)
8.60
4.20
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/0
0/0
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Bayern München
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
scored conceded
Arsenal
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
scored conceded
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🏥 Injuries & Suspensions
Bayern München
- ❌ T. Buchmann — Knee Injury
- ❌ J. Musiala — Muscle Injury
- ❌ S. Gnabry — Muscle Injury
Arsenal
- ❌ C. Mosquera — Muscle Injury
- ❌ W. Saliba — Back Injury
- ❌ J. Timber — Ankle Injury
- ❌ P. Hincapie — Ankle Injury
- ❌ C. Tzolis — Hamstring Injury
- ❌ M. Zubimendi — Knock
More: UEFA Champions League predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws