FC Augsburg vs Bayern München

Augsburg sit fourth on 7 points from 4 games, while Bayern arrive second on 10, so this WWK Arena clash pits early-season overachievers against the established front-runners. The hosts' recent form reads LDWWW, but Bayern's WWWDW suggests a side in rhythm and rarely troubled.

The model leans toward the visitors, giving the away win a 42.3 percent probability at a confidence of 77. Double chance 12 (Augsburg or draw) carries 76.3 percent, which frames how the market may price the safety net. Both teams to score lands at 66 percent, and Over 2.5 goals at 64.4 percent, pointing to an open contest. Expected goals tell a similar story: 1.8174 for Augsburg and 1.9658 for Bayern, with recent xG of 2.28 and 2.77 respectively. The most likely correct score is 1-2 at 8.04 percent, followed by 1-3 at 5.27 and 2-3 at 4.79. Corners look busy too, with an expected 11.6 and Over 9.5 at 64.1 percent.

Augsburg's injury list is long — T. Breithaupt, S. Mounie, A. Kade, F. Sakar, T. Schnitzer, S. Suso and K. Jakic — while Bayern miss T. Buchmann, S. Gnabry and J. Musiala. The head-to-head favours goals: 1-2, 2-3, 1-3, 3-0 and 2-3 across the last five.

Value may hide in the double chance and goals markets rather than the outright, since the model's 42.3 percent away win is modest for a favourite. The honest caveat: Augsburg's home record and that crowded treatment room could distort the expected-goals picture, so treat the 1-2 scoreline as a lean, not a lock.