Predictions β†’ World UEFA Champions League

AS Roma vs Real Madrid

Next match: Wed, 14 Oct 2026 β€’ 19:00 UTC+3 β€’ League Stage - 2 β€’ Stadio Olimpico β€’ 🌀 7.1Β°C, 3 km/h mostly clear

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Away 80% 47.3% 1.94 1xBet 52.5% -5.2 pp
Double Chance 12 69% 69% 1.28 1xBet 77% -8 pp
BTTS Yes 83% 52.4% 1.40 William Hill 68.9% -16.5 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 83% 52.2% 1.44 Betano 67.6% -15.4 pp
Correct Score 1-2 62% 6.6% 9.00 Bet365 6% +0.6 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.5 exp.) Over 9.5 60% 52% 1.80 Betfair 53% -1 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: AS Roma 1.31 – 1.40 Real Madrid Β· expected total 2.71

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Champions League league-stage points are precious, and this second-round tie at the Stadio Olimpico pits a Roma side still finding its feet against a Real Madrid outfit already off the mark. The hosts sit 17th on 1 point from 1 game, while the visitors are 14th on 3 points from 1 β€” early table positions that make three points here disproportionately valuable for both.

The model leans toward the away side. Real Madrid carry a WLWWW run into Rome against Roma's DWDWW, and the attacking numbers back that up: recent expected goals read 2.31 for the visitors and 2.22 for the hosts, though the match-level goal expectations are far tighter at 1.3972 for Madrid and 1.3145 for Roma. History is emphatic β€” all five recent meetings went Madrid's way, including 3-0 and 2-0 scorelines. Both squads are depleted, Roma listing M. Bah, L. Pellegrini, B. Cristante, K. Koulierakis and M. Svilar, Madrid without R. Asencio, E. Camavinga, Eder Militao, A. Guler, F. Mendy, Rodrygo and B. Silva.

The headline tip is an away win at 47.3% model probability, priced at 1.94 β€” that gap is where the value sits. Double chance 12 lands at 69%, while both teams to score is a near coin-flip at 52.4% (odds 1.4) and over 2.5 goals at 52.2% (1.44). The most likely correct score is 1-2 at 6.6%, with 0-1 and 0-2 close behind. Corners over 9.5 sits at 52% against an expected 9.5.

The honest caveat: Madrid's injury list is long, and a 47.3% away probability is far from dominant β€” this is a lean, not a lock.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 16:09 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

AS Roma

Form (last 5)
DInter (H) 2–2 Β· 19/09/2026WTorino (A) 2–0 Β· 14/09/2026DFenerbahΓ§e (A) 1–1 Β· 10/09/2026WAtalanta (H) 2–1 Β· 05/09/2026WLecce (A) 4–0 Β· 31/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.00
Goals conceded (season avg)1.00
Win streak (best this season)0
xG for (recent avg)1.79
xG against (recent avg)1.25
Elo strength rating1353
Players out5

Real Madrid

Form (last 5)
WVillarreal (H) 1–0 Β· 10/10/2026LAtletico Madrid (A) 1–2 Β· 20/09/2026WElche (A) 3–2 Β· 15/09/2026WRayo Vallecano (H) 4–1 Β· 12/09/2026WInter (H) 2–1 Β· 08/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)2.00
Goals conceded (season avg)1.00
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)2.31
xG against (recent avg)1.51
Elo strength rating1749
Players out7
AS RomaReal Madrid
DInter (H) 2–2 Β· 19/09/2026WTorino (A) 2–0 Β· 14/09/2026DFenerbahΓ§e (A) 1–1 Β· 10/09/2026WAtalanta (H) 2–1 Β· 05/09/2026WLecce (A) 4–0 Β· 31/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)
1.00
2.00
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.00
1.00
Win streak (best this season)
0
1
xG for (recent avg)
1.79
2.31
xG against (recent avg)
1.25
1.51
Elo strength rating
1353
1749
Players out
5
7

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

AS Roma

Unbeaten 7
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
3/6

Real Madrid

BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

AS Roma at home Β· Real Madrid away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

AS Roma (home)

Played0
Goals scored (avg)0.00
Goals conceded (avg)0.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0

Real Madrid (away)

Played0
Goals scored (avg)0.00
Goals conceded (avg)0.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0
AS Roma (home)Real Madrid (away)
Played
0
0
Goals scored (avg)
0.00
0.00
Goals conceded (avg)
0.00
0.00
Clean sheets
0
0
Failed to score
0
0

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–2
6.6%
0–1
6.2%
0–2
5%
1–3
3.1%
0–3
2.3%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

AS Roma 0 wins Β· 0 draws Β· Real Madrid 5 wins Β· avg 2.4 goals Β· BTTS in 1 of 5

5
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
27 Nov 2018 AS Roma 0–2 Real Madrid UEFA Champions League
19 Sep 2018 Real Madrid 3–0 AS Roma UEFA Champions League
08 Aug 2018 Real Madrid 2–1 AS Roma International Champions Cup
08 Mar 2016 Real Madrid 2–0 AS Roma UEFA Champions League
17 Feb 2016 AS Roma 0–2 Real Madrid UEFA Champions League

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

AS Roma

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
19/09 Inter Home 2–2 D
14/09 Torino Away 2–0 W
10/09 FenerbahΓ§e Away 1–1 D
05/09 Atalanta Home 2–1 W
31/08 Lecce Away 4–0 W

Real Madrid

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Villarreal Home 1–0 W
20/09 Atletico Madrid Away 1–2 L
15/09 Elche Away 3–2 W
12/09 Rayo Vallecano Home 4–1 W
08/09 Inter Home 2–1 W

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” UEFA Champions League

AS Roma #17 Β· 1 pts β€”  Real Madrid #14 Β· 3 pts

AS Roma

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–1D–0L
D 1
Played1
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0
Yellow cards2
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.79
xG against (avg)1.25
Corners for (avg)5.90
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Real Madrid

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–0D–0L
W 1
Played1
Goals scored (avg)2.00
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0
Yellow cards1
Red cards0
xG for (avg)2.31
xG against (avg)1.51
Corners for (avg)5.40
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
AS RomaReal Madrid
D 1
W 1
Played
1
1
Goals scored (avg)
1.00
2.00
Goals conceded (avg)
1.00
1.00
Clean sheets
0
0
Failed to score
0
0
Yellow cards
2
1
Red cards
0
0
xG for (avg)
1.79
2.31
xG against (avg)
1.25
1.51
Corners for (avg)
5.90
5.40
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/0
0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

AS Roma

0-15
16-30
31-45
1
1
46-60
61-75
76-90
scored conceded

Real Madrid

0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

AS Roma

  • ❌ M. Bah β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ L. Pellegrini β€” Thigh Injury
  • ❌ B. Cristante β€” Injury
  • ❌ K. Koulierakis β€” Knock
  • ❌ M. Svilar β€” Toe Injury

Real Madrid

  • ❌ R. Asencio β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ E. Camavinga β€” Red Card
  • ❌ Eder Militao β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ A. Guler β€” Red Card
  • ❌ F. Mendy β€” Hip Injury
  • ❌ Rodrygo β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ B. Silva β€” Red Card

More: UEFA Champions League predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws

Referee: Francois Letexier