Viking vs Bayern München
Next match: Tue, 13 Oct 2026 • 19:00 UTC+3 • League Stage - 2 • SR-Bank Arena • ⛅ 12.3°C, 21 km/h partly cloudy
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Away | 92% | 82.8% | 1.11 | Bet365 | 92% | -9.2 pp |
| Double Chance | 12 | 70% | 69.6% | 1.06 | Betano | 94.9% | -25.3 pp |
| BTTS | Yes | 84% | 54% | 1.73 | William Hill | 54.8% | -0.8 pp |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 84% | 54.1% | 1.18 | Betano | 83.6% | -29.5 pp |
| Correct Score | 1-2 | 61% | 6.4% | 14.00 | Betfair | 3.8% | +2.6 pp |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~11.8 exp.) | Over 9.5 | 66% | 56.7% | 1.57 | Betfair | 60.7% | -4 pp |
⚽ Model expected goals: Viking 1.44 – 1.39 Bayern München · expected total 2.82
Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.
🧠 Match Preview
What the model sees is a Viking side in decent form (WWWWL) but missing six players: A. Baertelsen, V. Berisha, S. Bjorshol, K. Frimpong, M. Roseth and A. Cosic. Bayern, DWWWD, are without T. Buchmann, S. Gnabry and J. Musiala. Recent expected goals favour Viking at 4.27 against Bayern's 2.48, yet the match-level expected goals are almost level: 1.4375 for Viking and 1.3872 for Bayern. That gap between recent output and this fixture's projection is the interesting tension.
The tips: Away win at 1.11, double chance 12 at 69.6 percent, Both Teams to Score Yes at 54 percent and 1.73, Over 2.5 at 54.1 percent and 1.18, and Over 9.5 corners at 56.7 percent with an expected 11.8. The 1-2 correct score leads the top scores at 8.22, with 0-1 at 7.06 and 0-2 at 5.72. Value likely hides in BTTS at 1.73 and the corner line, where the model's 56.7 percent sits above the implied price.
The caveat: Viking's injuries are heavy and Bayern's recent xG of 2.48 is modest, so the 1.11 away price offers little margin for error.
Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:08 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Viking
Bayern München
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Viking
Bayern München
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Viking at home · Bayern München away — the split that matters for this fixture.
Viking (home)
Bayern München (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
📈 Recent Form
Viking
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | Brann | Away | 2–0 | W |
| 01/10 | Madla | Away | 3–0 | W |
| 20/09 | Lillestrom | Home | 3–0 | W |
| 13/09 | Kristiansund BK | Home | 8–1 | W |
| 09/09 | VfB Stuttgart | Away | 1–3 | L |
Bayern München
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | FC Augsburg | Away | 2–2 | D |
| 18/09 | Union Berlin | Home | 7–0 | W |
| 13/09 | SV Elversberg | Away | 2–1 | W |
| 10/09 | Bodo/Glimt | Home | 5–0 | W |
| 05/09 | FC Schalke 04 | Away | 0–0 | D |
📊 Season Comparison — UEFA Champions League
Viking #29 · 0 pts — Bayern München #2 · 3 pts
Viking
Bayern München
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Viking
Bayern München
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🏥 Injuries & Suspensions
Viking
- ❌ A. Baertelsen — Foot Injury
- ❌ V. Berisha — Thigh Injury
- ❌ S. Bjorshol — Knee Injury
- ❌ K. Frimpong — Off the roster
- ❌ M. Roseth — Knee Injury
- ❌ A. Cosic — Injury
Bayern München
- ❌ T. Buchmann — Knee Injury
- ❌ S. Gnabry — Muscle Injury
- ❌ J. Musiala — Muscle Injury
More: UEFA Champions League predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws
Referee: Georgi Nikolov Kabakov