Predictions β†’ World UEFA Champions League

Lens vs Sporting CP

Next match: Tue, 13 Oct 2026 β€’ 16:45 UTC+3 β€’ League Stage - 2 β€’ Stade Bollaert-Delelis β€’ ☁️ 18Β°C, 16 km/h overcast

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 75% 32.5% 2.62 1xBet 38% -5.5 pp
Double Chance 12 68% 68% 1.30 1xBet 75.1% -7.1 pp
BTTS Yes 82% 50.5% 1.53 William Hill 63.2% -12.7 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 80% 47.2% 1.64 1xBet 60% -12.8 pp
Correct Score 1-0 62% 7% 12.00 Bet365 4.3% +2.7 pp
Draw (value pick) Draw 58% 26.7% 3.85 Pinnacle 24.9% +1.8 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.1 exp.) Over 9.5 62% 53.4% 1.85 Betano 52.1% +1.3 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Lens 1.30 – 1.24 Sporting CP Β· expected total 2.54

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Lens host Sporting CP at the Stade Bollaert-Delelis on Tuesday 13 October 2026, with both sides sitting on 3 points from one League Stage game. The hosts are 10th, the visitors 7th, so this is a genuine six-pointer in the race for a top-eight finish.

The model leans towards the home side, giving Lens a 32.5 percent win probability at odds of 2.62, with confidence at 75. The double chance covering the draw and home win carries a 68 percent probability. Form is tight: Lens have gone WWLDW in their last five, Sporting WDDWW. The underlying numbers are interesting, though. Lens have averaged 1.58 expected goals recently, while Sporting have posted 2.18, and the away side's scoring rate of 1.2416 sits just below the hosts' 1.2968. Both teams to score lands at 50.5 percent at 1.53, and Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.64 with a 47.2 percent probability. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 8.98 percent, followed by 2-1 at 8.25 and 2-0 at 6.65. Corners look lively, with an expected 10.1 and Over 9.5 at 53.4 percent.

Lens' injury list is the obvious risk here, with ten names including S. Abdulhamid, J. Todibo and T. Hazard, while Sporting are without I. Ba, N. Santos, J. Simoes and M. Zekri, with R. Zalazar doubtful. The value may hide in the draw at 26.7 percent, and the home win at 2.62 looks generous against that 32.5 percent model read. The caveat: with no head-to-head history to lean on and a heavily depleted Lens squad, the model's edge is thinner than the odds suggest.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 10:08 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Lens

Form (last 5)
WLyon (H) 2–1 Β· 09/10/2026WStandard Liege (A) 2–0 Β· 02/10/2026LMonaco (A) 1–2 Β· 18/09/2026DLe Mans (A) 2–2 Β· 13/09/2026WSlavia Praha (A) 3–2 Β· 10/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)3.00
Goals conceded (season avg)2.00
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)1.28
xG against (recent avg)1.60
Elo strength rating1358
Players out10

Sporting CP

Form (last 5)
WSC Braga (A) 3–1 Β· 09/10/2026DArouca (H) 2–2 Β· 19/09/2026DFamalicao (A) 1–1 Β· 13/09/2026WGalatasaray (H) 3–1 Β· 09/09/2026WNacional (H) 2–0 Β· 05/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)3.00
Goals conceded (season avg)1.00
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)1.53
xG against (recent avg)0.39
Elo strength rating1791
Players out4
LensSporting CP
WLyon (H) 2–1 Β· 09/10/2026WStandard Liege (A) 2–0 Β· 02/10/2026LMonaco (A) 1–2 Β· 18/09/2026DLe Mans (A) 2–2 Β· 13/09/2026WSlavia Praha (A) 3–2 Β· 10/09/2026
WSC Braga (A) 3–1 Β· 09/10/2026DArouca (H) 2–2 Β· 19/09/2026DFamalicao (A) 1–1 Β· 13/09/2026WGalatasaray (H) 3–1 Β· 09/09/2026WNacional (H) 2–0 Β· 05/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)
3.00
3.00
Goals conceded (season avg)
2.00
1.00
Win streak (best this season)
1
1
xG for (recent avg)
1.28
1.53
xG against (recent avg)
1.60
0.39
Elo strength rating
1358
1791
Players out
10
4

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Lens

Won 2 in a row
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Sporting CP

Unbeaten 10
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Lens at home Β· Sporting CP away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Lens (home)

Played0
Goals scored (avg)0.00
Goals conceded (avg)0.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0

Sporting CP (away)

Played0
Goals scored (avg)0.00
Goals conceded (avg)0.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0
Lens (home)Sporting CP (away)
Played
0
0
Goals scored (avg)
0.00
0.00
Goals conceded (avg)
0.00
0.00
Clean sheets
0
0
Failed to score
0
0

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
7%
2–1
6.4%
2–0
5.2%
3–1
2.8%
3–0
2.2%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Lens

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
09/10 Lyon Home 2–1 W
02/10 Standard Liege Away 2–0 W
18/09 Monaco Away 1–2 L
13/09 Le Mans Away 2–2 D
10/09 Slavia Praha Away 3–2 W

Sporting CP

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
09/10 SC Braga Away 3–1 W
19/09 Arouca Home 2–2 D
13/09 Famalicao Away 1–1 D
09/09 Galatasaray Home 3–1 W
05/09 Nacional Home 2–0 W

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” UEFA Champions League

Lens #10 Β· 3 pts β€”  Sporting CP #7 Β· 3 pts

Lens

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–0D–0L
W 1
Played1
Goals scored (avg)3.00
Goals conceded (avg)2.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0
Yellow cards1
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.28
xG against (avg)1.60
Corners for (avg)8.20
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Sporting CP

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–0D–0L
W 1
Played1
Goals scored (avg)3.00
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0
Yellow cards2
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.53
xG against (avg)0.39
Corners for (avg)4.50
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0
LensSporting CP
W 1
W 1
Played
1
1
Goals scored (avg)
3.00
3.00
Goals conceded (avg)
2.00
1.00
Clean sheets
0
0
Failed to score
0
0
Yellow cards
1
2
Red cards
0
0
xG for (avg)
1.28
1.53
xG against (avg)
1.60
0.39
Corners for (avg)
8.20
4.50
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/0
1/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Lens

0-15
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
1
76-90
2
scored conceded

Sporting CP

0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Lens

  • ❌ S. Abdulhamid β€” Contusion
  • ❌ S. Baidoo β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ J. Chavez β€” Thigh Injury
  • ❌ M. Diarra β€” Off the roster
  • ❌ I. Jourdren β€” Off the roster
  • ❌ M. Nawrocki β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ Y. Titraoui β€” Injury
  • ❌ T. Hazard β€” Inactive
  • ❌ A. Sima β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ J. Todibo β€” Inactive

Sporting CP

  • ❌ I. Ba β€” Knock
  • ❌ N. Santos β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ J. Simoes β€” Foot Injury
  • ❌ M. Zekri β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❓ R. Zalazar (doubtful) β€” Injury

More: UEFA Champions League predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws

Referee: Igor Pajac