Predictions β†’ World UEFA Champions League

Liverpool vs Villarreal

Next match: Tue, 20 Oct 2026 β€’ 19:00 UTC+3 β€’ League Stage - 3 β€’ Anfield β€’ β˜€οΈ 13.4Β°C, 11 km/h clear

PREDICTLIX BEST BET
Match Winner (1X2) β€” Home
Model 73.2% Β· Market best price β‰ˆ 63.7% Β· Edge +5.2 pp
Best odds 1.57 1xBet 1.57Marathonbet 1.53Dafabet 1.52
Bet this pick β†’
ΒΌ Kelly sizing: 5.7% of bank

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly β€” confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 1.53 β†’ 1.57 β–²3% 89% 71% 1.57 1xBet 65.8% +5.2 pp
Double Chance 1X 79% 82.5% 1.17 1xBet 85.2% -2.7 pp
BTTS Yes 81% 50% 1.67 Bet365 56.8% -6.8 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 83% 53% 1.55 Betano 62.8% -9.8 pp
Correct Score 2-0 65% 8.6% 9.25 Betano 5.7% +2.9 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.9 exp.) Over 9.5 64% 54.9% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Liverpool 2.11 – 0.93 Villarreal Β· expected total 3.04

🧠 Match Preview

Liverpool host Villarreal at Anfield on Tuesday night in the third round of the Champions League league stage, and the stakes are already shaping up as a top-five push against a side scrapping to climb from mid-table. The model makes Liverpool clear favourites at 71 percent, priced at 1.57, with the double chance on the home side sitting at 82.5 percent.

What the numbers show is a Liverpool team on a WLWWD run, fifth on 6 points from 2 games, against a Villarreal side on LWWLL, 14th on 3 points. The expected goals split is stark: 2.1141 for Liverpool against 0.9269 for Villarreal, though the recent picture is messier, with the visitors posting 2.77 xG recently against Liverpool's 1.4. Both squads are badly hit, with nine Liverpool names out and five for Villarreal.

The headline tip is a home win, and the 1.57 looks a fair reflection of that 71 percent. Over 2.5 goals comes in at 53 percent and 1.55, while both teams to score is a coin-flip at 50 percent and 1.67, so that is where the value may hide if you fancy Villarreal's recent attacking output. The most likely correct score is 2-0 at 10.74 percent, with 2-1 at 9.96 and 1-0 at 9.22. Corners look interesting too, with an expected 10.9 and 54.9 percent for over 9.5.

The honest caveat: that recent xG gap and the long Liverpool injury list mean this is not the walkover the headline probability suggests, so treat the short price with respect.

Updated 16 Oct 2026, 04:09 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Liverpool

Form (last 5)
WLask Linz (A) 6–3 Β· 14/10/2026LManchester City (H) 0–3 Β· 11/10/2026WBournemouth (A) 1–0 Β· 20/09/2026WTottenham (H) 3–1 Β· 15/09/2026DFulham (H) 0–0 Β· 12/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)4.00
Goals conceded (season avg)2.00
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)1.07
xG against (recent avg)0.60
Elo strength rating1895
Players out9

Villarreal

Form (last 5)
LReal Madrid (A) 0–1 Β· 10/10/2026WLevante (H) 3–1 Β· 20/09/2026WMalaga (A) 3–1 Β· 17/09/2026LReal Betis (H) 1–2 Β· 14/09/2026LBorussia Dortmund (A) 2–3 Β· 08/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)2.00
Goals conceded (season avg)3.00
Win streak (best this season)0
xG for (recent avg)2.77
xG against (recent avg)1.48
Elo strength rating1112
Players out5
LiverpoolVillarreal
Goals scored (season avg)
4.00
2.00
Goals conceded (season avg)
2.00
3.00
Win streak (best this season)
2
0
xG for (recent avg)
1.07
2.77
xG against (recent avg)
0.60
1.48
Elo strength rating
1895
1112
Players out
9
5

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Liverpool

BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Villarreal

BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
5/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
0/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” UEFA Champions League

Liverpool

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Villarreal

Best BTTS rate (83%)

Rank among 36 UEFA Champions League teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Liverpool at home Β· Villarreal away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Liverpool (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–0D–0L
W 1
Played1
Goals scored (avg)2.00
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0

Villarreal (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–0D–1L
L 1
Played1
Goals scored (avg)2.00
Goals conceded (avg)3.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0
Liverpool (home)Villarreal (away)
W 1
L 1
Played
1
1
Goals scored (avg)
2.00
2.00
Goals conceded (avg)
1.00
3.00
Clean sheets
0
0
Failed to score
0
0

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

2–0
8.6%
2–1
8%
1–0
7.4%
3–0
6.1%
3–1
5.6%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Liverpool 3 wins Β· 0 draws Β· Villarreal 1 win Β· avg 2.8 goals Β· BTTS in 1 of 4

3
1
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
03 May 2022 Villarreal 2–3 Liverpool UEFA Champions League
27 Apr 2022 Liverpool 2–0 Villarreal UEFA Champions League
05 May 2016 Liverpool 3–0 Villarreal UEFA Europa League
28 Apr 2016 Villarreal 1–0 Liverpool UEFA Europa League

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Liverpool

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
14/10 Lask Linz Away 6–3 W
11/10 Manchester City Home 0–3 L
20/09 Bournemouth Away 1–0 W
15/09 Tottenham Home 3–1 W
12/09 Fulham Home 0–0 D

Villarreal

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Real Madrid Away 0–1 L
20/09 Levante Home 3–1 W
17/09 Malaga Away 3–1 W
14/09 Real Betis Home 1–2 L
08/09 Borussia Dortmund Away 2–3 L

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” UEFA Champions League

Liverpool #5 Β· 6 pts β€”  Villarreal #14 Β· 3 pts

Liverpool

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–0D–0L
W 2
Played2
Goals scored (avg)4.00
Goals conceded (avg)2.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0
Yellow cards1
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.07
xG against (avg)0.60
Corners for (avg)4.50
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Villarreal

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–0D–1L
W 1
L 1
Played2
Goals scored (avg)2.00
Goals conceded (avg)3.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0
Yellow cards3
Red cards0
xG for (avg)2.77
xG against (avg)1.48
Corners for (avg)7.20
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
LiverpoolVillarreal
W 2
W 1
L 1
Played
2
2
Goals scored (avg)
4.00
2.00
Goals conceded (avg)
2.00
3.00
Clean sheets
0
0
Failed to score
0
0
Yellow cards
1
3
Red cards
0
0
xG for (avg)
1.07
2.77
xG against (avg)
0.60
1.48
Corners for (avg)
4.50
7.20
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/0
0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Liverpool

0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded

Villarreal

0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Liverpool

  • ❌ C. Bradley β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ F. Chiesa β€” Back Injury
  • ❌ H. Ekitike β€” Achilles Tendon Injury
  • ❌ W. Endo β€” Off the roster
  • ❌ C. Gakpo β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ J. Gomez β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ G. Leoni β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ A. Isak β€” Thigh Injury
  • ❌ D. Szoboszlai β€” Hamstring Injury

Villarreal

  • ❌ J. Foyth β€” Achilles Tendon Injury
  • ❌ C. Romero β€” Injury
  • ❌ T. Buchanan β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ P. Gulacsi β€” Personal Reasons
  • ❌ N. Pepe β€” Eye injury

More: UEFA Champions League predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws