Sturm Graz vs Celje
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Thu, 05 Nov 2026 • 23:00 UTC+3 • League Stage - 4 • Merkur-Arena • ⛅ 5.4°C, 1 km/h partly cloudy
Snapshotted at publish: No at 2.25 (51.2%, Model EV +15.2%). Prices move constantly, confirm at the bookmaker.
Best Bet selection: highest current Model EV among eligible candidates from 1X2, Double Chance, BTTS, Over/Under 2.5, Corners O/U 9.5 and Correct Score.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home 1.62 → 1.58 ▼2% | 1xBet1.58 | 57.8% | -8.7% |
| Double Chance | 1X | Betano1.18 | 80.6% | -4.9% |
| BTTS | No | Betfair2.25 | 50% · Yes 50% | +12.5% |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 1xBet2.44 | 44.7% · Over 55.3% | +9.1% |
| Correct Score | 1-0 | Bet3659.00 | 10.9% | -1.9% |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.4 exp.) | Under 9.5 | 1xBet1.91 | 51.1% · Over 48.9% | -2.4% |
Bookmaker links on this page: #ad · Play Safe · T&Cs apply · 18+
🧠 Match Preview
Model view
Model 1X2 split: Sturm Graz 57.8% · Draw 22.8% · Celje 19.4%. Selected outcome: Sturm Graz win.
Goals
Model expected goals: Sturm Graz 1.39, Celje 1.05, expected total 2.44.
Price check
The model favours Sturm Graz win, but the displayed price does not offer positive model EV.
Form / H2H
Sturm Graz: D-W-W-L-W in their last five matches.
Celje: D-D-L-W-D in their last five matches.
Historical form, not a probability for the next match.
Limitations
Lineups, injuries and late team news can change the outlook. Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees.
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Sturm Graz
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Sturm Graz
Celje
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Sturm Graz at home · Celje away, the split that matters for this fixture.
Sturm Graz (home)
Celje (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
📈 Recent Form
Sturm Graz
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Wolfsberger AC | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 25/10 | Ried | Home | 2–2 | D |
| 22/10 | Marseille | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 18/10 | Grazer AK | Home | 6–1 | W |
| 15/10 | Bournemouth | Away | 0–3 | L |
| 10/10 | Austria Vienna | Away | 2–0 | W |
| 02/10 | Floridsdorfer AC | Home | 3–1 | W |
| 20/09 | Red Bull Salzburg | Away | 0–3 | L |
| 16/09 | Rennes | Home | 0–0 | D |
| 13/09 | Lask Linz | Home | 2–1 | W |
Celje
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10 | Red Bull Salzburg | Home | 2–2 | D |
| 18/10 | Maribor | Away | 0–0 | D |
| 15/10 | Omonia Nicosia | Home | 0–3 | L |
| 10/10 | Aluminij | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 20/09 | Mura | Away | 0–0 | D |
| 16/09 | Bayer Leverkusen | Away | 0–2 | L |
| 12/09 | Bravo | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 06/09 | Koper | Home | 0–1 | L |
| 02/09 | Aluminij | Away | 2–0 | W |
| 30/08 | Brinje-Grosuplje | Away | 1–4 | L |
📊 Season Comparison: UEFA Europa League
Sturm Graz #19 · 4 pts · Celje #29 · 1 pts
Sturm Graz
Celje
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Sturm Graz
Celje
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🏥 Injuries & Suspensions
Sturm Graz
- ❌ N. Geyrhofer: Off the roster
- ❌ S. Jatta: Shoulder Injury
- ❌ A. Kayombo: Off the roster
- ❌ E. Soglo: Muscle Injury
- ❌ S. Wlodarczyk: Off the roster
- ❌ L. Grgic: Knee Injury
- ❌ O. Kiteishvili: Calf Injury
- ❌ G. Mamageishvili: Injury
- ❌ F. Rozga: Muscle Injury
- ❌ N. Weiper: Injury
⚠️ Status unconfirmed (listed inactive): D. Khudyakov; not counted as confirmed absences.
Celje
- ❌ A. Kotnik: Suspended (Red Card)
- ❌ J. Pisek: Knee Injury
More: UEFA Europa League predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws