Bahia vs Flamengo

Next match: Sun, 18 Oct 2026 • 21:30 UTC+3 • Round 31 • Arena Fonte Nova • ☁️ 27.5°C, 14 km/h overcast

PREDICTLIX BEST BET

Over/Under 2.5 — Under 2.5

Model 48.2% · Market best price ≈ 44.1% · Edge +5.0 pp

Best odds 2.27 Pinnacle 2.271xBet 2.21Betano 2.18

Bet this pick →

¼ Kelly sizing: 1.9% of bank

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly — confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

Market	Tip	Confidence	Probability	Odds	Bookmaker	Market implied	Edge
Match Result (1X2)	Away 2.12 → 2.1 ▼1%	79%	43%	2.10	1xBet	47.9%	-4.9 pp
Double Chance	12	68%	67.5%	1.29	William Hill	75.1%	-7.6 pp
BTTS	Yes	81%	50%	1.62	William Hill	58.7%	-8.7 pp
Over/Under 2.5	Under 2.5	80%	48.2%	2.27	Pinnacle	43.3%	+4.9 pp
Correct Score	0-1	64%	7.8%	9.50	William Hill	5.4%	+2.4 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~12 exp.)	Over 9.5	66%	57%	1.55	Betano	60.3%	-3.3 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Bahia 1.15 – 1.30 Flamengo · expected total 2.45

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Bahia host Flamengo at Arena Fonte Nova in Round 31 with the visitors sitting top on 61 points from 29 games, while the hosts are seventh on 46. The stakes tilt clearly toward the league leaders, who arrive on a DWDWW run against Bahia's LLWWW, and the head-to-head record backs that up: Flamengo have won four of the last five meetings, including a 2-0 in April 2026.

The model leans on recent attacking output rather than the raw season picture. Bahia's recent expected goals sit at 2.65 and Flamengo's at 2.42, yet the match-level goal expectations are far more modest at 1.1504 for the hosts and 1.2987 for the visitors. That tension explains why the model calls the away win at 43 percent with 79 confidence and odds of 2.1, and why the double chance covering the draw and Flamengo lands at 67.5 percent. Both teams to score is priced at 50 percent with odds of 1.62, while Under 2.5 goals carries 48.2 percent at 2.27. The correct-score pick is 0-1 at 7.9 percent, with 0-1 leading the top scores at 9.93 ahead of 1-2 at 8.38 and 0-2 at 7.29. Corners point to Over 9.5 at 57 percent with an expected 12.

Value may hide in the Under 2.5 and the away win if you trust the model's lower goal expectations over the hot recent xG. The honest caveat is the injury lists, which are enormous on both sides, and the 43 percent away probability is far from dominant, so the draw remains a live threat.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:09 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Bahia

Form (last 5)

LPalmeiras (A) 0–1 · 09/10/2026 LAtletico Paranaense (A) 1–2 · 20/09/2026 WRemo (H) 2–1 · 14/09/2026 WRB Bragantino (A) 3–2 · 05/09/2026WInternacional (H) 3–2 · 30/08/2026

Goals scored (season avg)1.50

Goals conceded (season avg)1.20

Win streak (best this season)4

xG for (recent avg)1.86

xG against (recent avg)0.96

Elo strength rating1596

Players out23

Flamengo

Form (last 5)

DSantos (A) 2–2 · 08/10/2026 WRB Bragantino (H) 2–1 · 20/09/2026DIndependiente del Valle (H) 1–1 · 18/09/2026WCorinthians (H) 2–1 · 13/09/2026WIndependiente del Valle (A) 2–0 · 11/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)2.00

Goals conceded (season avg)0.90

Win streak (best this season)5

xG for (recent avg)0.75

xG against (recent avg)0.11

Elo strength rating1773

Players out22

BahiaFlamengo

LPalmeiras (A) 0–1 · 09/10/2026 LAtletico Paranaense (A) 1–2 · 20/09/2026 WRemo (H) 2–1 · 14/09/2026 WRB Bragantino (A) 3–2 · 05/09/2026WInternacional (H) 3–2 · 30/08/2026

Goals scored (season avg)

1.50

2.00

Goals conceded (season avg)

1.20

0.90

Win streak (best this season)

xG for (recent avg)

1.86

0.75

xG against (recent avg)

0.96

0.11

Elo strength rating

1596

1773

Players out

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Bahia

Lost 2 in a row

BTTS

4/6

Over 2.5

4/6

Scored

5/6

Clean sheets

1/6

Flamengo

Unbeaten 8

BTTS

4/6

Over 2.5

3/6

Scored

6/6

Clean sheets

2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — Serie A

Bahia

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Flamengo

Best attack (2.00 goals/game) 2nd best defence (0.90 conceded/game) 2nd best clean sheets (12)

Rank among 20 Serie A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Bahia at home · Flamengo away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Bahia (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses6W–6D–2L

W 6

D 6

L 2

Played14

Goals scored (avg)1.60

Goals conceded (avg)1.00

Clean sheets4

Failed to score1

Flamengo (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses8W–4D–3L

W 8

D 4

L 3

Played15

Goals scored (avg)1.90

Goals conceded (avg)1.00

Clean sheets5

Failed to score1

Bahia (home)Flamengo (away)

W 6

D 6

L 2

W 8

D 4

L 3

Played

Goals scored (avg)

1.60

1.90

Goals conceded (avg)

1.00

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

0–1

7.8%

1–2

6.6%

0–2

5.7%

1–3

2.9%

0–3

2.5%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Bahia 1 win · 0 draws · Flamengo 9 wins · avg 2 goals · BTTS in 2 of 10

Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
19 Apr 2026	Flamengo	2–0	Bahia	Serie A
05 Oct 2025	Bahia	1–0	Flamengo	Serie A
11 May 2025	Flamengo	1–0	Bahia	Serie A
05 Oct 2024	Bahia	0–2	Flamengo	Serie A
13 Sep 2024	Flamengo	1–0	Bahia	Copa Do Brasil
29 Aug 2024	Bahia	0–1	Flamengo	Copa Do Brasil
20 Jun 2024	Flamengo	2–1	Bahia	Serie A
30 Sep 2023	Flamengo	1–0	Bahia	Serie A
13 May 2023	Bahia	2–3	Flamengo	Serie A
11 Nov 2021	Flamengo	3–0	Bahia	Serie A

📈 Recent Form

Bahia

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
09/10	Palmeiras	Away	0–1	L
20/09	Atletico Paranaense	Away	1–2	L
14/09	Remo	Home	2–1	W
05/09	RB Bragantino	Away	3–2	W
30/08	Internacional	Home	3–2	W

Flamengo

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
08/10	Santos	Away	2–2	D
20/09	RB Bragantino	Home	2–1	W
18/09	Independiente del Valle	Home	1–1	D
13/09	Corinthians	Home	2–1	W
11/09	Independiente del Valle	Away	2–0	W

📊 Season Comparison — Serie A

Bahia #7 · 46 pts — Flamengo #1 · 61 pts

Bahia

Wins–Draws–Losses12W–10D–7L

W 12

D 10

L 7

Played29

Goals scored (avg)1.50

Goals conceded (avg)1.20

Clean sheets8

Failed to score4

Yellow cards68

Red cards2

xG for (avg)1.86

xG against (avg)0.96

Corners for (avg)5.40

Penalties (scored/missed)7/3

Flamengo

Wins–Draws–Losses18W–7D–4L

W 18

D 7

L 4

Played29

Goals scored (avg)2.00

Goals conceded (avg)0.90

Clean sheets12

Failed to score2

Yellow cards61

Red cards7

xG for (avg)0.75

xG against (avg)0.11

Corners for (avg)7.10

Penalties (scored/missed)3/0

BahiaFlamengo

W 12

D 10

L 7

W 18

D 7

L 4

Played

Goals scored (avg)

1.50

2.00

Goals conceded (avg)

1.20

0.90

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Yellow cards

Red cards

xG for (avg)

1.86

0.75

xG against (avg)

0.96

0.11

Corners for (avg)

5.40

7.10

Penalties (scored/missed)

7/3

3/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Bahia

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Flamengo

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

🏥 Injuries & Suspensions

Bahia

❌ Ruan Pablo — Inactive
❌ M. Sanabria — Knee Injury
❌ Michel Araujo — Red Card
❌ Sidney Duarte — Injury
❌ Dell — Red Card
❌ Caio Alexandre — Muscle Injury
❌ Gilberto — Illness
❌ Kanu — Hamstring Injury
❌ Nicolas Acevedo — Yellow Cards
❌ Willian Jose — Hamstring Injury
❌ Ronaldo Strada — Injury
❌ S. Ramos — Yellow Cards
❌ Erick — Yellow Cards
❌ Luciano Juba — Injury
❌ Rodrigo — Yellow Cards
❌ Leo Vieira — Injury
❌ M. Moreno — Lacking Match Fitness
❌ C. Olivera — Ankle Injury
❌ Ze Guilherme — Yellow Cards
❌ Erick Pulga — Yellow Cards
❌ Ademir — Injury
❌ Jean Lucas — Yellow Cards
❌ Everaldo — Red Card
❓ David Duarte (doubtful) — Hamstring Injury
❓ Everton Ribeiro (doubtful) — Injury

Flamengo

❌ Danilo — Inactive
❌ Lucas Paqueta — Inactive
❌ Luiz Araujo — Inactive
❌ S. Niguez — Inactive
❌ N. de la Cruz — Inactive
❌ Jorginho — Red Card
❌ G. Varela — Ankle Injury
❌ Bruno Henrique — Inactive
❌ Leo Pereira — Yellow Cards
❌ G. Plata — Muscle Injury
❌ E. Pulgar — Yellow Cards
❌ Alex Sandro — Injury
❌ Evertton Araujo — Red Card
❌ Everton — Inactive
❌ J. Carrascal — Red Card
❌ G. de Arrascaeta — Shoulder Injury
❌ Leo Ortiz — Injury
❌ Vitao — Muscle Injury
❌ J. Freitas — Inactive
❌ A. Valencia — Inactive
❌ Ayrton Lucas — Thigh Injury
❌ Samuel Lino — Yellow Cards
❓ Daniel Thuram (doubtful) — Injury
❓ Ryan Roberto (doubtful) — Injury

More: Serie A predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws