Predictions β†’ Brazil Serie A

Internacional vs Botafogo

Next match: Sat, 24 Oct 2026 β€’ 19:30 UTC+3 β€’ Round 32 β€’ EstΓ‘dio Beira Rio β€’ ☁️ 17.8Β°C, 12 km/h overcast

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 79% 44.2% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Double Chance 1X 72% 73.2% β€” β€” β€” β€”
BTTS No 81% 49.3% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 83% 52.2% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Correct Score 1-0 68% 10.4% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Corners O/U 9.5 (~8.4 exp.) Under 9.5 63% 54.5% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Internacional 1.36 – 0.91 Botafogo Β· expected total 2.28

🧠 Match Preview

Saturday's Serie A clash at the EstΓ‘dio Beira Rio pits 17th-placed Internacional, on 32 points from 30 games, against 13th-placed Botafogo, who sit on 36 points from the same number of matches. With both sides stuck in the wrong half of the table, the stakes are pure survival: three points here would ease the pressure considerably.

The model leans home. Internacional's recent form reads DWLWL, while Botafogo arrive with DLLWD, and the expected-goals split favours the hosts at 1.3634 against 0.9118. Recent xG tells a slightly different story, with the visitors edging it 1.11 to 0.97, which is why the home win is priced at 44.2% with a confidence of 79 rather than anything more emphatic. Both injury lists are enormous, so squad rotation and late fitness calls could matter more than usual.

The headline tip is Internacional to win at 44.2%, but the smarter angle may be the double chance 1X at 73.2%, which covers the draw in a low-scoring fixture. Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 52.2%, and the model also leans toward both teams not scoring at 49.3%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 at 10.4%, with 2-0 (9.56) and 2-1 (8.71) next in line. Corners point to Under 9.5 at 54.5%, with an expected 8.4.

The honest caveat: Internacional's recent xG of 0.97 is actually lower than Botafogo's 1.11, so the home edge rests more on venue and season-long numbers than on current attacking output. If the hosts' finishing stays cold, the draw becomes a live threat.

Updated 16 Oct 2026, 04:11 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Internacional

Form (last 5)
DGremio (A) 1–1 Β· 11/10/2026WCorinthians (H) 2–1 Β· 07/10/2026LSao Paulo (A) 0–1 Β· 20/09/2026WChapecoense-sc (A) 2–1 Β· 12/09/2026LSantos (H) 2–3 Β· 06/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.10
Goals conceded (season avg)1.30
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)0.53
xG against (recent avg)0.72
Elo strength rating1380
Players out22

Botafogo

Form (last 5)
DCoritiba (A) 1–1 Β· 12/10/2026LVasco DA Gama (H) 1–2 Β· 07/10/2026LMirassol (A) 0–2 Β· 19/09/2026WGremio (H) 3–2 Β· 16/09/2026DRB Bragantino (H) 1–1 Β· 12/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.40
Goals conceded (season avg)1.60
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)0.64
xG against (recent avg)0.46
Elo strength rating1535
Players out29
InternacionalBotafogo
Goals scored (season avg)
1.10
1.40
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.30
1.60
Win streak (best this season)
2
2
xG for (recent avg)
0.53
0.64
xG against (recent avg)
0.72
0.46
Elo strength rating
1380
1535
Players out
22
29

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Internacional

BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
0/6

Botafogo

Winless 3
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Serie A

Internacional

2nd best BTTS rate (83%)

Botafogo

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Rank among 20 Serie A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Internacional at home Β· Botafogo away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Internacional (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–5D–6L
W 4
D 5
L 6
Played15
Goals scored (avg)1.20
Goals conceded (avg)1.10
Clean sheets4
Failed to score4

Botafogo (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–3D–8L
W 4
D 3
L 8
Played15
Goals scored (avg)1.20
Goals conceded (avg)1.70
Clean sheets1
Failed to score4
Internacional (home)Botafogo (away)
W 4
D 5
L 6
W 4
D 3
L 8
Played
15
15
Goals scored (avg)
1.20
1.20
Goals conceded (avg)
1.10
1.70
Clean sheets
4
1
Failed to score
4
4

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
10.4%
2–0
7.8%
2–1
7.1%
3–0
3.5%
3–1
3.2%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Botafogo 5 wins Β· 1 draw Β· Internacional 4 wins Β· avg 2.9 goals Β· BTTS in 5 of 10

5
1
4
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
25 Apr 2026 Botafogo 2–2 Internacional Serie A
04 Oct 2025 Internacional 2–0 Botafogo Serie A
11 May 2025 Botafogo 4–0 Internacional Serie A
05 Dec 2024 Internacional 0–1 Botafogo Serie A
20 Jul 2024 Botafogo 1–0 Internacional Serie A
07 Dec 2023 Internacional 3–1 Botafogo Serie A
13 Aug 2023 Botafogo 3–1 Internacional Serie A
16 Oct 2022 Botafogo 0–1 Internacional Serie A
19 Jun 2022 Internacional 2–3 Botafogo Serie A
12 Dec 2020 Internacional 2–1 Botafogo Serie A

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Internacional

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
11/10 Gremio Away 1–1 D
07/10 Corinthians Home 2–1 W
20/09 Sao Paulo Away 0–1 L
12/09 Chapecoense-sc Away 2–1 W
06/09 Santos Home 2–3 L

Botafogo

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
12/10 Coritiba Away 1–1 D
07/10 Vasco DA Gama Home 1–2 L
19/09 Mirassol Away 0–2 L
16/09 Gremio Home 3–2 W
12/09 RB Bragantino Home 1–1 D

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Serie A

Internacional #17 Β· 32 pts β€”  Botafogo #13 Β· 36 pts

Internacional

Wins–Draws–Losses7W–11D–12L
W 7
D 11
L 12
Played30
Goals scored (avg)1.10
Goals conceded (avg)1.30
Clean sheets6
Failed to score9
Yellow cards76
Red cards3
xG for (avg)0.53
xG against (avg)0.72
Corners for (avg)5.00
Penalties (scored/missed)2/0

Botafogo

Wins–Draws–Losses9W–9D–12L
W 9
D 9
L 12
Played30
Goals scored (avg)1.40
Goals conceded (avg)1.60
Clean sheets4
Failed to score7
Yellow cards81
Red cards3
xG for (avg)0.64
xG against (avg)0.46
Corners for (avg)4.00
Penalties (scored/missed)2/0
InternacionalBotafogo
W 7
D 11
L 12
W 9
D 9
L 12
Played
30
30
Goals scored (avg)
1.10
1.40
Goals conceded (avg)
1.30
1.60
Clean sheets
6
4
Failed to score
9
7
Yellow cards
76
81
Red cards
3
3
xG for (avg)
0.53
0.64
xG against (avg)
0.72
0.46
Corners for (avg)
5.00
4.00
Penalties (scored/missed)
2/0
2/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Internacional

6
0-15
3
8
16-30
7
3
31-45
3
10
46-60
6
4
61-75
5
8
76-90
8
scored conceded

Botafogo

9
0-15
7
6
16-30
5
2
31-45
8
15
46-60
8
3
61-75
5
10
76-90
13
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Internacional

  • ❌ Richard β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Thiago Maia β€” Inactive
  • ❌ A. Rodriguez β€” Injury
  • ❌ Bruno Tabata β€” Inactive
  • ❌ R. Villagra β€” Injury
  • ❌ Kayky β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Paulinho Paula β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ S. Rochet β€” International duty
  • ❌ F. Torres β€” Loan agreement
  • ❌ Vitinho β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ A. Bernabei β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ G. Mercado β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Ronaldo β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ J. Carbonero β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Joao Victor β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ Matheus Bahia β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Allex β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Bruno Gomes β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ B. Aguirre β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Calebe β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ G. Maripan β€” Inactive
  • ❌ A. Sanabria β€” Inactive
  • ❓ B. Arhin (doubtful) β€” Injury
  • ❓ Victor Gabriel (doubtful) β€” Injury
  • ❓ Alan Patrick (doubtful) β€” Injury

Botafogo

  • ❌ J. Correa β€” Inactive
  • ❌ C. Ramos β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Marcal β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ Bastos β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Kaio Pantaleao β€” Inactive
  • ❌ M. Ponte β€” Inactive
  • ❌ S. Rodriguez β€” Injury
  • ❌ Allan β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ A. Barboza β€” Red Card
  • ❌ C. Medina β€” Red Card
  • ❌ Newton β€” Shoulder Injury
  • ❌ Danilo β€” International duty
  • ❌ N. Ferraresi β€” International duty
  • ❌ Alex Telles β€” Injury
  • ❌ Nathan Fernandes β€” Injury
  • ❌ L. M. Villalba Jaume β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Junior Santos β€” Injury
  • ❌ Vitinho β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Matheus Martins β€” Injury
  • ❌ Arthur Cabral β€” Injury
  • ❌ A. Montoro β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Huguinho β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ J. Barrera β€” Injury
  • ❌ G. Justino β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Paulinho β€” Injury
  • ❌ Warleson β€” Injury
  • ❌ K. Barria β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Arthur Chaves β€” Inactive
  • ❌ L. Monzon β€” Inactive

More: Serie A predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws