Predictions β†’ Brazil Serie A

Coritiba vs Botafogo

Next match: Mon, 12 Oct 2026 β€’ 19:00 UTC+3 β€’ Round 30 β€’ EstΓ‘dio Couto Pereira β€’ 🌦 20.2Β°C, 12 km/h, 0.1mm drizzle

PREDICTLIX BEST BET
BTTS β€” No
Model 48.5% Β· Market best price β‰ˆ 42% Β· Edge +8.8 pp
Best odds 2.38 Betfair 2.38BetVictor 2.301xBet 2.30
Bet this pick β†’
ΒΌ Kelly sizing: 1.5% of bank

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly β€” confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 2.65 β†’ 2.75 β–²4% 74% 30.9% 2.75 Bet365 35.7% -4.8 pp
Double Chance 1X 68% 67.5% 1.53 Betfair 62.2% +5.3 pp
BTTS No 81% 49.3% 2.38 Betfair 40.5% +8.8 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 81% 49.8% 2.15 1xBet 44.9% +4.9 pp
Correct Score 1-0 67% 9.8% 11.00 Bet365 4.6% +5.2 pp
Draw (value pick) Draw 62% 27.3% 3.60 Betfair 26.5% +0.8 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10 exp.) Over 9.5 62% 53.2% 1.76 Pinnacle 56.1% -2.9 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Coritiba 1.15 – 0.99 Botafogo Β· expected total 2.15

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Coritiba host Botafogo at EstΓ‘dio Couto Pereira on Monday in Round 30 of Serie A, with both sides stuck in mid-table and in need of points. Coritiba sit 10th on 38 points from 29 games, while Botafogo are 13th on 35 from the same number of matches, so this is a fixture where the hosts can create breathing room and the visitors can drag themselves level.

The model leans toward the home side, giving Coritiba a 30.9 percent win probability at odds of 2.75, with a draw at 27.3 percent. Recent form is far from pretty: Coritiba arrive on LLDLW and Botafogo on LLWDD. The expected goals picture is tight, with Coritiba at 1.1541 and Botafogo at 0.9913, though recent xG reads 0.76 for the hosts and 1.11 for the visitors, suggesting Botafogo have been creating the better chances lately despite the table gap. Both squads are heavily depleted by injuries, which adds real noise to any read on this game.

Where might value hide? The double chance 1X lands at 67.5 percent, a solid anchor if you want to avoid the outright. Under 2.5 goals is priced at 2.15 with a 49.8 percent probability, and BTTS No sits at 2.38 with 49.3 percent. The most likely correct score is 1-0 at 12.17 percent, with 2-0 at 7.8 and 2-1 at 7.73. Corners lean Over 9.5 at 53.2 percent, with an expected 10.

The honest caveat: with 30.9 percent on the home win and such long injury lists on both sides, this is a low-conviction match. Treat the outright as a small-stakes play and let the double chance or the unders carry the weight.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 16:09 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Coritiba

Form (last 5)
LFluminense (A) 0–4 Β· 09/10/2026LVasco DA Gama (A) 0–5 Β· 19/09/2026DAtletico Paranaense (H) 3–3 Β· 12/09/2026LMirassol (H) 1–2 Β· 06/09/2026WRemo (A) 3–2 Β· 31/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.30
Goals conceded (season avg)1.60
Win streak (best this season)3
xG for (recent avg)0.43
xG against (recent avg)1.78
Elo strength rating1332
Players out25

Botafogo

Form (last 5)
LVasco DA Gama (H) 1–2 Β· 07/10/2026LMirassol (A) 0–2 Β· 19/09/2026WGremio (H) 3–2 Β· 16/09/2026DRB Bragantino (H) 1–1 Β· 12/09/2026DPalmeiras (H) 0–0 Β· 06/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.40
Goals conceded (season avg)1.60
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)0.64
xG against (recent avg)0.46
Elo strength rating1541
Players out27
CoritibaBotafogo
Goals scored (season avg)
1.30
1.40
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.60
1.60
Win streak (best this season)
3
2
xG for (recent avg)
0.43
0.64
xG against (recent avg)
1.78
0.46
Elo strength rating
1332
1541
Players out
25
27

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Coritiba

Lost 2 in a row Winless 4
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
6/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
0/6

Botafogo

Lost 2 in a row
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
3/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Serie A

Coritiba

Best Over 2.5 rate (100%)

Botafogo

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Rank among 20 Serie A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Coritiba at home Β· Botafogo away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Coritiba (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses5W–4D–5L
W 5
D 4
L 5
Played14
Goals scored (avg)1.40
Goals conceded (avg)1.40
Clean sheets2
Failed to score3

Botafogo (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–2D–8L
W 4
D 2
L 8
Played14
Goals scored (avg)1.20
Goals conceded (avg)1.80
Clean sheets1
Failed to score4
Coritiba (home)Botafogo (away)
W 5
D 4
L 5
W 4
D 2
L 8
Played
14
14
Goals scored (avg)
1.40
1.20
Goals conceded (avg)
1.40
1.80
Clean sheets
2
1
Failed to score
3
4

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
9.8%
2–0
6.3%
2–1
6.2%
3–0
2.4%
3–1
2.4%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Botafogo 6 wins Β· 3 draws Β· Coritiba 1 win Β· avg 2.5 goals Β· BTTS in 5 of 10

6
3
1
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
12 Apr 2026 Botafogo 2–2 Coritiba Serie A
30 Nov 2023 Coritiba 1–1 Botafogo Serie A
30 Jul 2023 Botafogo 4–1 Coritiba Serie A
17 Sep 2022 Botafogo 2–0 Coritiba Serie A
29 May 2022 Coritiba 1–0 Botafogo Serie A
28 Aug 2021 Coritiba 0–1 Botafogo Serie B
06 Jun 2021 Botafogo 2–0 Coritiba Serie B
20 Dec 2020 Coritiba 1–2 Botafogo Serie A
02 Sep 2020 Botafogo 0–0 Coritiba Serie A
24 Sep 2017 Coritiba 2–3 Botafogo Serie A

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Coritiba

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
09/10 Fluminense Away 0–4 L
19/09 Vasco DA Gama Away 0–5 L
12/09 Atletico Paranaense Home 3–3 D
06/09 Mirassol Home 1–2 L
31/08 Remo Away 3–2 W

Botafogo

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
07/10 Vasco DA Gama Home 1–2 L
19/09 Mirassol Away 0–2 L
16/09 Gremio Home 3–2 W
12/09 RB Bragantino Home 1–1 D
06/09 Palmeiras Home 0–0 D

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Serie A

Coritiba #10 Β· 38 pts β€”  Botafogo #13 Β· 35 pts

Coritiba

Wins–Draws–Losses10W–8D–11L
W 10
D 8
L 11
Played29
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)1.60
Clean sheets6
Failed to score9
Yellow cards48
Red cards8
xG for (avg)0.43
xG against (avg)1.78
Corners for (avg)4.50
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0

Botafogo

Wins–Draws–Losses9W–8D–12L
W 9
D 8
L 12
Played29
Goals scored (avg)1.40
Goals conceded (avg)1.60
Clean sheets4
Failed to score7
Yellow cards79
Red cards4
xG for (avg)0.64
xG against (avg)0.46
Corners for (avg)4.00
Penalties (scored/missed)2/0
CoritibaBotafogo
W 10
D 8
L 11
W 9
D 8
L 12
Played
29
29
Goals scored (avg)
1.30
1.40
Goals conceded (avg)
1.60
1.60
Clean sheets
6
4
Failed to score
9
7
Yellow cards
48
79
Red cards
8
4
xG for (avg)
0.43
0.64
xG against (avg)
1.78
0.46
Corners for (avg)
4.50
4.00
Penalties (scored/missed)
1/0
2/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Coritiba

4
0-15
2
8
16-30
4
4
31-45
8
8
46-60
8
13
61-75
7
11
76-90
7
scored conceded

Botafogo

9
0-15
7
6
16-30
4
2
31-45
7
15
46-60
8
3
61-75
5
10
76-90
13
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Coritiba

  • ❌ Lucas Crepaldi β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Rodrigo Rodrigues β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ Josue β€” Red Card
  • ❌ Wallisson β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Benassi β€” Inactive
  • ❌ S. Gomez β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Pedro Morisco β€” Injury
  • ❌ Tinga β€” Injury
  • ❌ Jacy β€” Injury
  • ❌ Maicon β€” Red Card
  • ❌ Keno β€” Inactive
  • ❌ J. Lavega β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Gustavo β€” Injury
  • ❌ Renato Marques β€” Red Card
  • ❌ Breno Lopes β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Bruno Melo β€” Red Card
  • ❌ Fabinho β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Keiller β€” Loan agreement
  • ❌ Thiago Santos β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Joao Pedro Chermont β€” Loan agreement
  • ❌ Lucas Ronier β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Vini Paulista β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Pedro Rangel β€” Inactive
  • ❌ B. Ocampo β€” Injury
  • ❌ Lucas Taverna β€” Inactive
  • ❓ Tiago Coser (doubtful) β€” Inactive

Botafogo

  • ❌ J. Correa β€” Inactive
  • ❌ C. Ramos β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Marcal β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ Bastos β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Kaio Pantaleao β€” Inactive
  • ❌ M. Ponte β€” Inactive
  • ❌ S. Rodriguez β€” Injury
  • ❌ Allan β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ A. Barboza β€” Red Card
  • ❌ C. Medina β€” Red Card
  • ❌ Newton β€” Shoulder Injury
  • ❌ Danilo β€” International duty
  • ❌ N. Ferraresi β€” International duty
  • ❌ Alex Telles β€” Injury
  • ❌ Nathan Fernandes β€” Injury
  • ❌ L. M. Villalba Jaume β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Junior Santos β€” Injury
  • ❌ Vitinho β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Matheus Martins β€” Injury
  • ❌ Arthur Cabral β€” Injury
  • ❌ A. Montoro β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Huguinho β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ J. Barrera β€” Injury
  • ❌ G. Justino β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Paulinho β€” Injury
  • ❌ Warleson β€” Injury
  • ❌ K. Barria β€” Yellow Cards

More: Serie A predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws

Referee: Matheus Delgado Candancan