Santa Fe vs Bucaramanga

Santa Fe sit seventh on 29 points from 19 games and host a Bucaramanga side 13th on 23, so this Clausura round 14 fixture is a chance for the hosts to protect their place in the upper half against a visitor with little to lose. The model leans firmly home: a 54.4 percent win probability at 83 confidence, with the double chance 1X priced at 77.3 percent.

The underlying numbers back that up. Santa Fe's expected goals stand at 1.6179 against Bucaramanga's 0.8982, and recent shot quality is even more lopsided at 1.21 versus 0.62. Form reads WWDLW for the hosts against DDWWW for the visitors, so Bucaramanga arrive unbeaten but drawing too often, while Santa Fe have the sharper edge. No injuries are listed on either side. The head-to-head is tight and low-scoring: a 1-2 Santa Fe win in March, a 0-0, a 1-0 Bucaramanga, a 2-1 Bucaramanga and a 1-1.

That history points to goals being scarce, and the model agrees. Under 2.5 goals carries 48.9 percent, both teams to score No sits at 47.7 percent, and the correct score leans 1-0 at 11.91 percent, with 2-0 at 10.59 and 2-1 at 9.51. Corners are expected at 9.2, giving Under 9.5 a 52.6 percent edge. With no odds quoted in the snapshot, value is hard to pin precisely, but the home win and the 1X double chance are where the model's conviction is strongest, and the under-goals and under-corners angles are the natural companions. The honest caveat: Bucaramanga are unbeaten in five and drew three of them, so a low-scoring stalemate is a live risk that would sink the straight home win.