Cardiff vs Birmingham

Next match: Sat, 24 Oct 2026 • 14:00 UTC+3 • Round 12 • Cardiff City Stadium

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

Market	Tip	Confidence	Probability	Odds	Bookmaker	Market implied	Edge
Match Result (1X2)	Home	78%	41.7%	—	—	—	—
Double Chance	1X	70%	69.6%	—	—	—	—
BTTS	Yes	83%	53.3%	—	—	—	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	81%	49.8%	—	—	—	—
Correct Score	1-0	63%	7.5%	—	—	—	—
Corners O/U 9.5 (~11 exp.)	Over 9.5	64%	55.2%	—	—	—	—

⚽ Model expected goals: Cardiff 1.49 – 1.13 Birmingham · expected total 2.63

🧠 Match Preview

Cardiff host Birmingham at the Cardiff City Stadium on Saturday with the two clubs separated by seven points and very different moods. Birmingham sit 4th on 17 points from 10 games, while Cardiff are down in 19th on 10 points, so the visitors arrive as the higher-ranked side despite being on the road.

The model leans toward the home side anyway, giving Cardiff a 41.7% chance of the win with a confidence reading of 78, and the double chance 1X at 69.6%. That reflects recent attacking output: Cardiff's recent expected goals figure is 2.04 against Birmingham's 1.83, even though the season-long goal expectations favour Cardiff only narrowly at 1.4935 to 1.1336. Form is mixed on both sides — Cardiff's last five read WLWLD, Birmingham's WWDWL — and the head-to-head is a curious one, with the last five meetings producing 0-1, 0-1, 1-3, 0-2 and 1-0, four of them away wins.

Both teams to score is priced at 53.3%, while Over 2.5 goals sits just under even at 49.8%, and corners look the most comfortable angle at Over 9.5 with an expected 11 and 55.2%. The correct score model likes 1-0 at 7.5%, with 2-1 and 2-0 close behind. The obvious caveat is the team news: both squads are heavily depleted, with eight Cardiff names and ten Birmingham names listed as injured, so the lineups could shift the picture significantly before kick-off.

Updated 15 Oct 2026, 10:10 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Cardiff

Form (last 5)

WWatford (H) 5–1 · 13/10/2026 LBlackburn (A) 1–2 · 10/10/2026 WCharlton (H) 3–1 · 19/09/2026 LBolton (A) 0–1 · 12/09/2026 DStoke City (H) 1–1 · 08/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)1.60

Goals conceded (season avg)1.50

Win streak (best this season)1

xG for (recent avg)2.04

xG against (recent avg)1.20

Elo strength rating1349

Players out8

Birmingham

Form (last 5)

WPreston (H) 4–0 · 13/10/2026 WWest Brom (A) 1–0 · 10/10/2026 DMiddlesbrough (H) 2–2 · 19/09/2026 WDerby (A) 2–1 · 12/09/2026 LNorwich (A) 1–2 · 09/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)1.70

Goals conceded (season avg)1.10

Win streak (best this season)1

xG for (recent avg)1.83

xG against (recent avg)1.59

Elo strength rating1604

Players out10

CardiffBirmingham

WWatford (H) 5–1 · 13/10/2026 LBlackburn (A) 1–2 · 10/10/2026 WCharlton (H) 3–1 · 19/09/2026 LBolton (A) 0–1 · 12/09/2026 DStoke City (H) 1–1 · 08/09/2026

WPreston (H) 4–0 · 13/10/2026 WWest Brom (A) 1–0 · 10/10/2026 DMiddlesbrough (H) 2–2 · 19/09/2026 WDerby (A) 2–1 · 12/09/2026 LNorwich (A) 1–2 · 09/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)

1.60

1.70

Goals conceded (season avg)

1.50

1.10

Win streak (best this season)

xG for (recent avg)

2.04

1.83

xG against (recent avg)

1.20

1.59

Elo strength rating

1349

1604

Players out

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Cardiff

BTTS

4/6

Over 2.5

3/6

Scored

4/6

Clean sheets

0/6

Birmingham

Won 2 in a row Unbeaten 4

BTTS

4/6

Over 2.5

5/6

Scored

6/6

Clean sheets

2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — Championship

Cardiff

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Birmingham

Best Over 2.5 rate (83%)

Rank among 24 Championship teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Cardiff at home · Birmingham away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Cardiff (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–3D–0L

W 2

D 3

Played5

Goals scored (avg)2.40

Goals conceded (avg)1.20

Clean sheets0

Failed to score0

Birmingham (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–1D–1L

W 3

D 1

L 1

Played5

Goals scored (avg)1.20

Goals conceded (avg)0.80

Clean sheets2

Failed to score1

Cardiff (home)Birmingham (away)

W 2

D 3

W 3

D 1

L 1

Played

Goals scored (avg)

2.40

1.20

Goals conceded (avg)

1.20

0.80

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0

7.5%

2–1

7.2%

2–0

6.3%

3–1

3.6%

3–0

3.1%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Birmingham 1 win · 3 draws · Cardiff 6 wins · avg 2.6 goals · BTTS in 5 of 10

Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
10 Apr 2024	Birmingham	0–1	Cardiff	Championship
13 Dec 2023	Cardiff	0–1	Birmingham	Championship
29 Aug 2023	Birmingham	1–3	Cardiff	League Cup
14 Feb 2023	Birmingham	0–2	Cardiff	Championship
13 Aug 2022	Cardiff	1–0	Birmingham	Championship
30 Apr 2022	Cardiff	1–1	Birmingham	Championship
11 Dec 2021	Birmingham	2–2	Cardiff	Championship
01 May 2021	Birmingham	0–4	Cardiff	Championship
16 Dec 2020	Cardiff	3–2	Birmingham	Championship
18 Jan 2020	Birmingham	1–1	Cardiff	Championship

📈 Recent Form

Cardiff

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
13/10	Watford	Home	5–1	W
10/10	Blackburn	Away	1–2	L
19/09	Charlton	Home	3–1	W
12/09	Bolton	Away	0–1	L
08/09	Stoke City	Home	1–1	D

Birmingham

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
13/10	Preston	Home	4–0	W
10/10	West Brom	Away	1–0	W
19/09	Middlesbrough	Home	2–2	D
12/09	Derby	Away	2–1	W
09/09	Norwich	Away	1–2	L

📊 Season Comparison — Championship

Cardiff #19 · 10 pts — Birmingham #4 · 17 pts

Cardiff

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–4D–4L

W 2

D 4

L 4

Played10

Goals scored (avg)1.60

Goals conceded (avg)1.50

Clean sheets0

Failed to score2

Yellow cards19

Red cards0

xG for (avg)2.04

xG against (avg)1.20

Corners for (avg)7.10

Penalties (scored/missed)1/1

Birmingham

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–5D–1L

W 4

D 5

L 1

Played10

Goals scored (avg)1.70

Goals conceded (avg)1.10

Clean sheets3

Failed to score1

Yellow cards21

Red cards0

xG for (avg)1.83

xG against (avg)1.59

Corners for (avg)5.40

Penalties (scored/missed)2/0

CardiffBirmingham

W 2

D 4

L 4

W 4

D 5

L 1

Played

Goals scored (avg)

1.60

1.70

Goals conceded (avg)

1.50

1.10

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Yellow cards

Red cards

xG for (avg)

2.04

1.83

xG against (avg)

1.20

1.59

Corners for (avg)

7.10

5.40

Penalties (scored/missed)

1/1

2/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Cardiff

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Birmingham

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

🏥 Injuries & Suspensions

Cardiff

❌ W. Fish — Hernia
❌ D. Lawlor — Muscle Injury
❌ C. Chambers — Knee Injury
❌ G. Osho — Knee Injury
❌ R. Colwill — Health problems
❌ I. Davies — Injury
❌ K. Bielik — Suspended
❌ Y. Salech — Inactive

Birmingham

❌ L. Buchanan — Knee Injury
❌ M. Ducksch — Calf Injury
❌ T. Gardner-Hickman — Injury
❌ M. Leonard — Achilles Tendon Injury
❌ M. Bird — Inactive
❌ D. Gray — Injury
❌ P. Roberts — Health problems
❌ S. Wright — Off the roster
❌ J. E. Solis Romero — Inactive
❌ Paik Seung-Ho — Health problems

More: Championship predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws