Predictions β†’ England Championship

Birmingham vs QPR

Next match: Sat, 17 Oct 2026 β€’ 14:00 UTC+3 β€’ Round 11 β€’ β˜€οΈ 10.6Β°C, 10 km/h clear

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 81% 47.9% 2.02 1xBet 49.6% -1.7 pp
Double Chance 1X 72% 72.6% 1.27 Marathonbet 75.9% -3.3 pp
BTTS Yes 83% 52.5% 1.75 1xBet 54.3% -1.8 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 81% 49.1% 1.97 Marathonbet 48.7% +0.4 pp
Correct Score 1-0 67% 9.7% 7.50 Marathonbet 6% +3.7 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~12.2 exp.) Over 9.5 67% 57.3% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Birmingham 1.40 – 0.96 QPR Β· expected total 2.36

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Birmingham and QPR meet level on 14 points after nine games, sitting seventh and sixth respectively, so this is a direct scrap for position in the Championship's early-season grid. The model leans home: Birmingham are given a 47.9 percent chance of the win at odds of 2.02, with confidence rated 81, while the double chance of 1X lands at 72.6 percent.

The form lines are tight. Birmingham arrive with WDWLD from their last five, QPR with DDDDL, and the goal expectations point to a low-scoring, cagey affair: 1.3994 for the hosts against 0.9558 for the visitors, though recent xG runs hotter at 1.83 and 1.52. Both squads are heavily depleted, with ten names listed out for each side, which tempers any read on fluency. The head-to-head record is mixed, Birmingham winning the last meeting 1-0 but QPR taking the two before that.

The headline tip is a Birmingham home win, and the correct-score model favours 1-0 at 9.7 percent, part of a top-score cluster that also includes 2-0 and 2-1. Under 2.5 goals is priced at 1.97 with a 49.1 percent probability, while BTTS Yes sits at 52.5 percent and 1.75 β€” a market where the numbers suggest little edge either way. Corners look the most interesting angle: an expected 12.2 and a 57.3 percent chance of Over 9.5.

The honest caveat is that 47.9 percent is not a dominant home probability, and QPR's run of draws shows how hard they are to beat. With both injury lists so long, the safest value may sit away from the outright result.

Updated 13 Oct 2026, 16:09 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Birmingham

Form (last 5)
WWest Brom (A) 1–0 Β· 10/10/2026DMiddlesbrough (H) 2–2 Β· 19/09/2026WDerby (A) 2–1 Β· 12/09/2026LNorwich (A) 1–2 Β· 09/09/2026DWolves (H) 2–2 Β· 06/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.40
Goals conceded (season avg)1.20
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)1.83
xG against (recent avg)1.59
Elo strength rating1593
Players out10

QPR

Form (last 5)
DWest Ham (A) 1–1 Β· 09/10/2026DPreston (H) 2–2 Β· 19/09/2026DWest Brom (A) 1–1 Β· 12/09/2026DCharlton (A) 0–0 Β· 09/09/2026LMiddlesbrough (H) 0–1 Β· 05/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.20
Goals conceded (season avg)0.90
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)1.52
xG against (recent avg)1.29
Elo strength rating1448
Players out10
BirminghamQPR
Goals scored (season avg)
1.40
1.20
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.20
0.90
Win streak (best this season)
1
2
xG for (recent avg)
1.83
1.52
xG against (recent avg)
1.59
1.29
Elo strength rating
1593
1448
Players out
10
10

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Birmingham

Unbeaten 3
BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
1/6

QPR

Unbeaten 4 Winless 5
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Championship

Birmingham

Best BTTS rate (83%)

QPR

2nd best defence (0.90 conceded/game)

Rank among 24 Championship teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Birmingham at home Β· QPR away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Birmingham (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–4D–0L
D 4
Played4
Goals scored (avg)1.80
Goals conceded (avg)1.80
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0

QPR (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–3D–0L
W 2
D 3
Played5
Goals scored (avg)1.40
Goals conceded (avg)0.80
Clean sheets1
Failed to score1
Birmingham (home)QPR (away)
D 4
W 2
D 3
Played
4
5
Goals scored (avg)
1.80
1.40
Goals conceded (avg)
1.80
0.80
Clean sheets
0
1
Failed to score
0
1

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
9.7%
2–0
7.5%
2–1
7.2%
3–0
3.5%
3–1
3.3%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Birmingham 4 wins Β· 2 draws Β· QPR 4 wins Β· avg 1.8 goals Β· BTTS in 4 of 10

4
2
4
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
11 Mar 2026 Birmingham 1–0 QPR Championship
09 Dec 2025 QPR 2–1 Birmingham Championship
29 Mar 2024 QPR 2–1 Birmingham Championship
22 Sep 2023 Birmingham 0–0 QPR Championship
18 Mar 2023 QPR 0–1 Birmingham Championship
28 Oct 2022 Birmingham 2–0 QPR Championship
02 Jan 2022 Birmingham 1–2 QPR Championship
28 Sep 2021 QPR 2–0 Birmingham Championship
27 Feb 2021 Birmingham 2–1 QPR Championship
24 Oct 2020 QPR 0–0 Birmingham Championship

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Birmingham

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 West Brom Away 1–0 W
19/09 Middlesbrough Home 2–2 D
12/09 Derby Away 2–1 W
09/09 Norwich Away 1–2 L
06/09 Wolves Home 2–2 D

QPR

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
09/10 West Ham Away 1–1 D
19/09 Preston Home 2–2 D
12/09 West Brom Away 1–1 D
09/09 Charlton Away 0–0 D
05/09 Middlesbrough Home 0–1 L

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Championship

Birmingham #7 Β· 14 pts β€”  QPR #6 Β· 14 pts

Birmingham

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–5D–1L
W 3
D 5
L 1
Played9
Goals scored (avg)1.40
Goals conceded (avg)1.20
Clean sheets2
Failed to score1
Yellow cards20
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.83
xG against (avg)1.59
Corners for (avg)5.40
Penalties (scored/missed)2/0

QPR

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–5D–1L
W 3
D 5
L 1
Played9
Goals scored (avg)1.20
Goals conceded (avg)0.90
Clean sheets2
Failed to score3
Yellow cards17
Red cards1
xG for (avg)1.52
xG against (avg)1.29
Corners for (avg)8.20
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0
BirminghamQPR
W 3
D 5
L 1
W 3
D 5
L 1
Played
9
9
Goals scored (avg)
1.40
1.20
Goals conceded (avg)
1.20
0.90
Clean sheets
2
2
Failed to score
1
3
Yellow cards
20
17
Red cards
0
1
xG for (avg)
1.83
1.52
xG against (avg)
1.59
1.29
Corners for (avg)
5.40
8.20
Penalties (scored/missed)
2/0
1/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Birmingham

1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
8
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
1
scored conceded

QPR

2
0-15
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
4
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
76-90
1
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Birmingham

  • ❌ L. Buchanan β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ M. Ducksch β€” Calf Injury
  • ❌ T. Gardner-Hickman β€” Injury
  • ❌ M. Leonard β€” Achilles Tendon Injury
  • ❌ M. Bird β€” Inactive
  • ❌ D. Gray β€” Injury
  • ❌ P. Roberts β€” Health problems
  • ❌ S. Wright β€” Off the roster
  • ❌ J. E. Solis Romero β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Paik Seung-Ho β€” Health problems

QPR

  • ❌ K. Dembele β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ R. Kolli β€” Coach's decision
  • ❌ B. Kemper β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ J. Obikwu β€” Shin Injury
  • ❌ I. Chair β€” Injury
  • ❌ J. Dunne β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ R. Kone β€” Injury
  • ❌ T. Lamptey β€” Injury
  • ❌ R. Burrell β€” Inactive
  • ❌ D. Cirkin β€” Red Card

More: Championship predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws