Watford vs Middlesbrough
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Sat, 07 Nov 2026 • 18:00 UTC+3 • Round 15 • Vicarage Road • 🌦 7.7°C, 3 km/h, 0.4mm drizzle
No Best Bet: no eligible value candidate at current conditions.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Away | Current price not available | 48.2% | — |
| Double Chance | 12 | Current price not available | 75.3% | — |
| BTTS | Yes | Current price not available | 63.9% · No 36.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Current price not available | 62.5% · Under 37.5% | — |
| Correct Score | 1-2 | Current price not available | 9.4% | — |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~8.6 exp.) | Under 9.5 | Current price not available | 56.8% · Over 43.2% | — |
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🧠 Match Preview
Watford · Home
Watford have lost four of their last five, including a 0-4 home defeat to Burnley and a 1-5 loss at Cardiff, and failed to score twice in that run. Their recent xG for of 0.99 over up to five recent matches with recorded statistics sits well below Middlesbrough's output.
Middlesbrough · Away
Middlesbrough are unbeaten in five with 14 goals scored, winning 3-0 against Charlton and 5-1 at Bolton. Their latest head-to-head was a 5-1 win over Watford, and their recent xG for of 1.91 over up to five recent matches with recorded statistics supports that scoring run.
Boro's Scoring Run Stands Out
The latest head-to-head, a 5-1 Middlesbrough win over Watford, is the clearest signal in this matchup, and it fits a run of 14 goals in five unbeaten games. Watford's 5-13 goal difference across their last five, with a 0-4 home loss to Burnley, shows how often they have been opened up. Middlesbrough's recent xG for of 1.91 over up to five recent matches with recorded statistics is far above Watford's 0.99, so the visitors' scoring edge is not just results-based. The evidence supports Middlesbrough win.
Published 01 Nov 2026 04:49 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.
⚽ Current model expected goals: Watford 1.36 – 1.87 Middlesbrough · expected total 3.23
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Watford
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Watford
Middlesbrough
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks: Championship
Watford
No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.
Middlesbrough
Rank among 24 Championship teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Watford at home · Middlesbrough away, the split that matters for this fixture.
Watford (home)
Middlesbrough (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Middlesbrough 4 wins · 1 draw · Watford 5 wins · avg 3 goals · BTTS in 6 of 10
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr 2026 | Middlesbrough | 5–1 | Watford | Championship |
| 01 Nov 2025 | Watford | 3–0 | Middlesbrough | Championship |
| 15 Feb 2025 | Middlesbrough | 0–1 | Watford | Championship |
| 05 Oct 2024 | Watford | 2–1 | Middlesbrough | Championship |
| 04 May 2024 | Middlesbrough | 3–1 | Watford | Championship |
| 30 Sep 2023 | Watford | 2–3 | Middlesbrough | Championship |
| 28 Jan 2023 | Middlesbrough | 2–0 | Watford | Championship |
| 30 Aug 2022 | Watford | 2–1 | Middlesbrough | Championship |
| 05 Apr 2021 | Middlesbrough | 1–1 | Watford | Championship |
| 11 Sep 2020 | Watford | 1–0 | Middlesbrough | Championship |
📈 Recent Form
Watford
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Norwich | Away | 2–3 | L |
| 24/10 | Wolves | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 17/10 | Charlton | Home | 2–0 | W |
| 13/10 | Cardiff | Away | 1–5 | L |
| 10/10 | Burnley | Home | 0–4 | L |
| 18/09 | Bristol City | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 12/09 | Stoke City | Home | 1–2 | L |
| 08/09 | Preston | Home | 2–1 | W |
| 05/09 | West Brom | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 01/09 | Swansea | Away | 0–2 | L |
Middlesbrough
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Charlton | Home | 3–0 | W |
| 23/10 | Bolton | Away | 5–1 | W |
| 17/10 | Cardiff | Home | 2–2 | D |
| 13/10 | Stoke City | Away | 3–2 | W |
| 10/10 | Wolves | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 19/09 | Birmingham | Away | 2–2 | D |
| 15/09 | Millwall | Home | 2–2 | D |
| 12/09 | Norwich | Home | 4–3 | W |
| 08/09 | Crystal Palace | Away | 0–3 | L |
| 05/09 | QPR | Away | 1–0 | W |
📊 Season Comparison: Championship
Watford #21 · 11 pts · Middlesbrough #1 · 28 pts
Watford
Middlesbrough
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Watford
Middlesbrough
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🏥 Injuries & Suspensions
Watford
- ❌ K. Baah: Knock
- ❌ M. Bola: Hamstring Injury
- ❌ J. Ngakia: Thigh Injury
- ❌ O. H. Traore: Injury
- ❌ M. Boadu: Injury
- ❌ E. Bove: Knee Injury
- ❌ J. Zemura: Muscle Injury
- ❌ S. Coulibaly: Hamstring Injury
Squad/transfer status (not counted as absences): T. Akomeah (Lacking Match Fitness), J. Grieves (Lacking Match Fitness).
⚠️ Status unconfirmed (listed inactive): B. Mlacic, M. Antonio; not counted as confirmed absences.
Middlesbrough
- ❌ T. Conway: Ankle Injury
- ❌ A. Morris: Injury
- ❌ D. Strelec: Health problems
- ❌ A. Jones: Calf Injury
- ❌ R. Pukstas: Injury
Squad/transfer status (not counted as absences): A. Bangura (Coach's decision), A. Phillips (Lacking Match Fitness).
⚠️ Status unconfirmed (listed inactive): J. Sarmiento; not counted as confirmed absences.
More: Championship predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws