Predictions β†’ England Championship

Wrexham vs Preston

Next match: Sat, 17 Oct 2026 β€’ 14:00 UTC+3 β€’ Round 11 β€’ Racecourse Ground

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 1.73 β†’ 1.7 β–Ό2% 85% 60.5% 1.70 1xBet 59.1% +1.4 pp
Double Chance 1X 76% 78.6% 1.20 Betano 82.2% -3.6 pp
BTTS Yes 81% 49% 1.80 Bet365 53.2% -4.2 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 80% 47.2% 1.98 SBO 49.1% -1.9 pp
Correct Score 1-0 70% 11.4% 7.50 William Hill 6.7% +4.7 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.6 exp.) Over 9.5 61% 52.3% 1.75 Betfair 54.5% -2.2 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Wrexham 1.52 – 0.79 Preston Β· expected total 2.31

🧠 Match Preview

Wrexham host Preston at the Racecourse Ground on Saturday with both clubs stuck in the wrong half of the Championship table. The home side sit 17th on 11 points from 10 games, while Preston are bottom on just 4 points, so this is a genuine six-pointer even at this early stage.

The model leans heavily toward Wrexham, giving them a 60.5 percent chance of the win at odds of 1.7, with confidence rated at 85. The double chance of 1X carries a 78.6 percent probability. Form backs that up: Wrexham have gone LDWLD across their last five, Preston a dismal LLDLL. The expected goals split is telling too, with Wrexham at 1.5183 against Preston's 0.7918, though recent xG actually favours the visitors 1.62 to 0.7, a warning sign worth noting. Both squads are badly hit by injuries, with nine absentees apiece.

For the tips, the 1-0 correct score is the model's favourite at 11.4 percent, with 2-0 next at 11.45 in the top scores list. Under 2.5 goals is tipped at 47.2 percent and odds of 2, while BTTS Yes sits at 49 percent and 1.8. Corners look interesting, with an expected 9.6 and Over 9.5 at 52.3 percent.

The honest caveat: that recent xG edge for Preston, plus Wrexham's patchy LDWLD run, means the 1.7 home price is shorter than the underlying numbers fully justify. Treat the win as the likeliest outcome, not a comfortable one.

Updated 16 Oct 2026, 04:10 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Wrexham

Form (last 5)
LWest Brom (H) 1–2 Β· 13/10/2026DDerby (A) 1–1 Β· 10/10/2026WSouthampton (H) 2–1 Β· 19/09/2026LWest Ham (A) 0–6 Β· 11/09/2026DBurnley (H) 1–1 Β· 08/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.10
Goals conceded (season avg)1.50
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)0.61
xG against (recent avg)1.72
Elo strength rating1580
Players out9

Preston

Form (last 5)
LBirmingham (A) 0–4 Β· 13/10/2026LMillwall (H) 0–1 Β· 10/10/2026DQPR (A) 2–2 Β· 19/09/2026LLincoln (H) 0–1 Β· 12/09/2026LWatford (A) 1–2 Β· 08/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.80
Goals conceded (season avg)2.00
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)1.62
xG against (recent avg)1.54
Elo strength rating1377
Players out9
WrexhamPreston
Goals scored (season avg)
1.10
0.80
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.50
2.00
Win streak (best this season)
1
1
xG for (recent avg)
0.61
1.62
xG against (recent avg)
1.72
1.54
Elo strength rating
1580
1377
Players out
9
9

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Wrexham

BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Preston

Lost 2 in a row Winless 5
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
3/6
Clean sheets
0/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Championship

Wrexham

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Preston

2nd worst defence (2.00 conceded/game)

Rank among 24 Championship teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Wrexham at home Β· Preston away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Wrexham (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–2D–2L
W 1
D 2
L 2
Played5
Goals scored (avg)1.20
Goals conceded (avg)1.40
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0

Preston (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–1D–4L
D 1
L 4
Played5
Goals scored (avg)0.80
Goals conceded (avg)2.20
Clean sheets0
Failed to score2
Wrexham (home)Preston (away)
W 1
D 2
L 2
D 1
L 4
Played
5
5
Goals scored (avg)
1.20
0.80
Goals conceded (avg)
1.40
2.20
Clean sheets
0
0
Failed to score
0
2

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
11.4%
2–0
9.4%
2–1
7.4%
3–0
4.8%
3–1
3.8%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Preston 0 wins Β· 1 draw Β· Wrexham 2 wins Β· avg 3.3 goals Β· BTTS in 3 of 3

1
2
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
29 Dec 2025 Wrexham 2–1 Preston Championship
06 Dec 2025 Preston 1–1 Wrexham Championship
26 Aug 2025 Preston 2–3 Wrexham League Cup

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Wrexham

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
13/10 West Brom Home 1–2 L
10/10 Derby Away 1–1 D
19/09 Southampton Home 2–1 W
11/09 West Ham Away 0–6 L
08/09 Burnley Home 1–1 D

Preston

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
13/10 Birmingham Away 0–4 L
10/10 Millwall Home 0–1 L
19/09 QPR Away 2–2 D
12/09 Lincoln Home 0–1 L
08/09 Watford Away 1–2 L

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Championship

Wrexham #17 Β· 11 pts β€”  Preston #24 Β· 4 pts

Wrexham

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–5D–3L
W 2
D 5
L 3
Played10
Goals scored (avg)1.10
Goals conceded (avg)1.50
Clean sheets2
Failed to score2
Yellow cards12
Red cards0
xG for (avg)0.61
xG against (avg)1.72
Corners for (avg)3.30
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Preston

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–1D–8L
W 1
D 1
L 8
Played10
Goals scored (avg)0.80
Goals conceded (avg)2.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score4
Yellow cards22
Red cards1
xG for (avg)1.62
xG against (avg)1.54
Corners for (avg)6.50
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
WrexhamPreston
W 2
D 5
L 3
W 1
D 1
L 8
Played
10
10
Goals scored (avg)
1.10
0.80
Goals conceded (avg)
1.50
2.00
Clean sheets
2
0
Failed to score
2
4
Yellow cards
12
22
Red cards
0
1
xG for (avg)
0.61
1.62
xG against (avg)
1.72
1.54
Corners for (avg)
3.30
6.50
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/0
0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Wrexham

3
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
6
76-90
1
scored conceded

Preston

3
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
8
76-90
2
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Wrexham

  • ❌ L. Cacace β€” Calf Injury
  • ❌ S. Revan β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ B. Sheaf β€” Inactive
  • ❌ J. Windass β€” Calf Injury
  • ❌ G. Thomason β€” Thigh Injury
  • ❌ N. Broadhead β€” Inactive
  • ❌ M. Cleworth β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ O. Rathbone β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ M. James β€” Back Injury

Preston

  • ❌ T. Carroll β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ L. Gibson β€” Red Card
  • ❌ B. Potts β€” Injury
  • ❌ A. McCann β€” Injury
  • ❌ A. Hughes β€” Inactive
  • ❌ H. Clarke β€” Inactive
  • ❌ J. Kenny β€” Inactive
  • ❌ C. Wiley β€” Inactive
  • ❌ S. Mills β€” Red Card

More: Championship predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws

Referee: Simon Hooper