Predictions → England League Two

Barnet vs Swindon Town

Next match: Tue, 20 Oct 2026 • 18:45 UTC+3 • Round 12 • The Hive Stadium • ☁️ 12.3°C, 10 km/h overcast

PREDICTLIX BEST BET
Match Winner (1X2) — Home
Model 70.4% · Market best price ≈ 65.8% · Edge +9.1 pp
Best odds 1.52 Betano 1.52Dafabet 1.51William Hill 1.50
Bet this pick →
¼ Kelly sizing: 5.7% of bank

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly — confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 1.62 → 1.52 ▼6% 91% 75% 1.52 Betano 65.9% +9.1 pp
Double Chance 1X 84% 88.6% 1.17 Betano 84.9% +3.7 pp
BTTS No 80% 47.2% 2.38 Betfair 40.5% +6.7 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 76% 39.9% 2.63 Betfair 36.6% +3.3 pp
Correct Score 2-0 67% 9.9% 9.25 Betano 5.5% +4.4 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.6 exp.) Over 9.5 63% 54.3% 1.47 Pinnacle 65.3% -11 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Barnet 2.47 – 0.76 Swindon Town · expected total 3.23

🧠 Match Preview

Barnet host Swindon Town at The Hive Stadium on Tuesday night with the home side second in League Two on 21 points from 9 games, while Swindon sit 18th on 12 points from 11. The stakes are clear: Barnet can keep pace at the top, Swindon need something to stop the slide.

The model sees a mismatch. Barnet's recent form reads WWWDD and their recent expected goals figure is 2.7, feeding a home scoring estimate of 2.4673. Swindon's form is DLLDL, with a recent xG of 1.25 and an away scoring estimate of just 0.7633. No injuries are listed on either side. The head-to-head is mixed — Barnet won 2-0 at Swindon in August 2025, but Swindon won 1-2 at The Hive in February 2026 — so recent history offers Swindon a sliver of hope.

The main tip is a Home win at 75% probability (confidence 91) against odds of 1.52, and the double chance 1X lands at 88.6%. Both teams to score is tipped No at 47.2% with odds of 2.38, while Under 2.5 goals carries 39.9% at 2.63 — a price that looks short of the model's read. The correct-score model favours 2-0 at 12.2%, with 3-0 at 10.03% and 2-1 at 9.31%. Corners are tipped Over 9.5, with an expected 10.6 and 54.3% probability.

The honest caveat: the 1.52 on a home win is priced tightly against a 75% model read, so the value may hide in the correct-score and corners markets rather than the outright. And that February 2026 defeat at this venue is a reminder that Swindon have upset this fixture before.

Updated 19 Oct 2026, 10:09 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Barnet

Form (last 5)
WBristol Rovers (A) 3–1 · 10/10/2026WFleetwood Town (H) 3–1 · 19/09/2026WAccrington ST (H) 2–1 · 12/09/2026DChesterfield (A) 3–3 · 05/09/2026DExeter City (A) 1–1 · 01/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)2.50
Goals conceded (season avg)1.40
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)2.70
xG against (recent avg)1.89
Elo strength rating1636

Swindon Town

Form (last 5)
DWalsall (H) 1–1 · 17/10/2026LCrewe (H) 0–1 · 10/10/2026LRochdale (A) 0–1 · 03/10/2026DAccrington ST (H) 1–1 · 26/09/2026LNewport County (H) 0–2 · 22/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.90
Goals conceded (season avg)1.40
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)0.82
xG against (recent avg)1.43
Elo strength rating1483
BarnetSwindon Town
Goals scored (season avg)
2.50
0.90
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.40
1.40
Win streak (best this season)
2
2
xG for (recent avg)
2.70
0.82
xG against (recent avg)
1.89
1.43
Elo strength rating
1636
1483

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Barnet

Won 3 in a row Unbeaten 9
BTTS
6/6
Over 2.5
5/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
0/6

Swindon Town

Winless 8
BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
0/6
Scored
2/6
Clean sheets
0/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — League Two

Barnet

Best attack (2.50 goals/game) Best BTTS rate (100%) Best Over 2.5 rate (83%)

Swindon Town

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Rank among 24 League Two teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Barnet at home · Swindon Town away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Barnet (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–1D–0L
W 3
D 1
Played4
Goals scored (avg)2.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.30
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0

Swindon Town (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–1D–4L
D 1
L 4
Played5
Goals scored (avg)0.00
Goals conceded (avg)1.80
Clean sheets1
Failed to score5
Barnet (home)Swindon Town (away)
W 3
D 1
D 1
L 4
Played
4
5
Goals scored (avg)
2.50
0.00
Goals conceded (avg)
1.30
1.80
Clean sheets
0
1
Failed to score
0
5

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

2–0
9.9%
3–0
8.1%
2–1
7.6%
1–0
7.4%
3–1
6.2%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Barnet 2 wins · 1 draw · Swindon Town 5 wins · avg 2.8 goals · BTTS in 4 of 8

2
1
5
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
17 Feb 2026 Barnet 1–2 Swindon Town League Two
19 Aug 2025 Swindon Town 0–2 Barnet League Two
01 Jan 2018 Barnet 1–2 Swindon Town League Two
02 Sep 2017 Swindon Town 1–4 Barnet League Two
03 Apr 2012 Barnet 0–2 Swindon Town League Two
07 Feb 2012 Swindon Town 1–0 Barnet EFL Trophy
10 Jan 2012 Barnet 1–1 Swindon Town EFL Trophy
24 Sep 2011 Swindon Town 4–0 Barnet League Two

📈 Recent Form

Barnet

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Bristol Rovers Away 3–1 W
19/09 Fleetwood Town Home 3–1 W
12/09 Accrington ST Home 2–1 W
05/09 Chesterfield Away 3–3 D
01/09 Exeter City Away 1–1 D

Swindon Town

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
17/10 Walsall Home 1–1 D
10/10 Crewe Home 0–1 L
03/10 Rochdale Away 0–1 L
26/09 Accrington ST Home 1–1 D
22/09 Newport County Home 0–2 L

📊 Season Comparison — League Two

Barnet #2 · 21 pts —  Swindon Town #18 · 12 pts

Barnet

Wins–Draws–Losses6W–3D–0L
W 6
D 3
Played9
Goals scored (avg)2.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.40
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0
Yellow cards16
Red cards1
xG for (avg)2.70
xG against (avg)1.89
Corners for (avg)4.40
Penalties (scored/missed)2/0

Swindon Town

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–3D–5L
W 3
D 3
L 5
Played11
Goals scored (avg)0.90
Goals conceded (avg)1.40
Clean sheets1
Failed to score6
Yellow cards19
Red cards2
xG for (avg)0.82
xG against (avg)1.43
Corners for (avg)5.60
Penalties (scored/missed)0/1
BarnetSwindon Town
W 6
D 3
W 3
D 3
L 5
Played
9
11
Goals scored (avg)
2.50
0.90
Goals conceded (avg)
1.40
1.40
Clean sheets
0
1
Failed to score
0
6
Yellow cards
16
19
Red cards
1
2
xG for (avg)
2.70
0.82
xG against (avg)
1.89
1.43
Corners for (avg)
4.40
5.60
Penalties (scored/missed)
2/0
0/1

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Barnet

1
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
8
scored conceded

Swindon Town

3
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
6
76-90
3
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: League Two predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws