Chesterfield vs Colchester

Next match: Tue, 20 Oct 2026 • 18:45 UTC+3 • Round 12 • SMH Group Stadium • ☁️ 12.4°C, 10 km/h overcast

PREDICTLIX BEST BET

Match Winner (1X2) — Home

Model 59.9% · Market best price ≈ 54.1% · Edge +6.7 pp

Best odds 1.85 Dafabet 1.851xBet 1.81

Bet this pick →

¼ Kelly sizing: 3.2% of bank

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly — confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

Market	Tip	Confidence	Probability	Odds	Bookmaker	Market implied	Edge
Match Result (1X2)	Home	85%	59.9%	1.85	Dafabet	53.2%	+6.7 pp
Double Chance	1X	79%	82.9%	—	—	77.2%	+5.7 pp
BTTS	Yes	83%	53.2%	—	—	—	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	84%	54.6%	—	—	—	—
Correct Score	2-1	64%	7.8%	—	—	—	—
Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.3 exp.)	Under 9.5	61%	52.5%	—	—	—	—

⚽ Model expected goals: Chesterfield 2.33 – 1.01 Colchester · expected total 3.34

🧠 Match Preview

Chesterfield host Colchester in League Two's twelfth round, and the table already tells a story of two clubs heading in opposite directions. Chesterfield sit seventh on 15 points from 10 games, while Colchester are nineteenth with 10 points from 9. The SMH Group Stadium should be a welcoming place for the home side.

The model sees a clear edge for Chesterfield. Their recent expected goals figure of 2.96 dwarfs Colchester's 1.22, and the season-long attacking numbers point the same way, with Chesterfield expected to score around 2.33 goals against a Colchester side expected to manage roughly 1.01. Form backs it up: Chesterfield's last five read DWLWW, Colchester's LDLDD. There are no injuries listed for either squad, so both managers have full hands to play.

The headline tip is a home win at 59.9 percent probability, priced at 1.85. If you want a safety net, the double chance 1X lands at 82.9 percent. Both teams to score is a slimmer 53.2 percent, while over 2.5 goals sits at 54.6 percent. The most likely correct score is 2-1 at 7.8 percent, with 2-0 close behind. Corners lean under 9.5 at 52.5 percent, with 9.3 expected.

The honest caveat: Colchester won the reverse fixture 6-2 last October, and this head-to-head has produced some wild swings. A 59.9 percent home probability is strong, not bulletproof, so treat the 1.85 as fair rather than generous.

Updated 16 Oct 2026, 04:10 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Chesterfield

Form (last 5)

DCrawley Town (A) 2–2 · 10/10/2026 WTranmere (H) 4–2 · 03/10/2026 LCheltenham (A) 1–2 · 26/09/2026 WYork (H) 2–0 · 19/09/2026WManchester City U21 (H) 5–3 · 15/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)1.70

Goals conceded (season avg)1.40

Win streak (best this season)2

xG for (recent avg)1.51

xG against (recent avg)0.79

Elo strength rating1611

Colchester

Form (last 5)

LNewport County (A) 0–1 · 10/10/2026 DShrewsbury (A) 2–2 · 26/09/2026LPeterborough (A) 1–3 · 22/09/2026DCheltenham (H) 1–1 · 19/09/2026 DCrewe (H) 1–1 · 12/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)1.10

Goals conceded (season avg)1.40

Win streak (best this season)2

xG for (recent avg)0.42

xG against (recent avg)0.50

Elo strength rating1455

ChesterfieldColchester

DCrawley Town (A) 2–2 · 10/10/2026 WTranmere (H) 4–2 · 03/10/2026 LCheltenham (A) 1–2 · 26/09/2026 WYork (H) 2–0 · 19/09/2026WManchester City U21 (H) 5–3 · 15/09/2026

LNewport County (A) 0–1 · 10/10/2026 DShrewsbury (A) 2–2 · 26/09/2026LPeterborough (A) 1–3 · 22/09/2026DCheltenham (H) 1–1 · 19/09/2026 DCrewe (H) 1–1 · 12/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)

1.70

1.10

Goals conceded (season avg)

1.40

Win streak (best this season)

xG for (recent avg)

1.51

0.42

xG against (recent avg)

0.79

0.50

Elo strength rating

1611

1455

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Chesterfield

BTTS

5/6

Over 2.5

5/6

Scored

6/6

Clean sheets

1/6

Colchester

Winless 7

BTTS

5/6

Over 2.5

3/6

Scored

5/6

Clean sheets

0/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — League Two

Chesterfield

3rd best attack (1.70 goals/game) 2nd best BTTS rate (83%) Best Over 2.5 rate (83%)

Colchester

2nd best BTTS rate (83%)

Rank among 24 League Two teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Chesterfield at home · Colchester away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Chesterfield (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–2D–1L

W 2

D 2

L 1

Played5

Goals scored (avg)2.00

Goals conceded (avg)1.40

Clean sheets1

Failed to score1

Colchester (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–2D–3L

D 2

L 3

Played5

Goals scored (avg)1.00

Goals conceded (avg)2.00

Clean sheets0

Failed to score2

Chesterfield (home)Colchester (away)

W 2

D 2

L 1

D 2

L 3

Played

Goals scored (avg)

2.00

1.00

Goals conceded (avg)

1.40

2.00

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

2–1

7.8%

2–0

7.7%

3–1

6.1%

3–0

1–0

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Chesterfield 3 wins · 5 draws · Colchester 2 wins · avg 3.3 goals · BTTS in 6 of 10

Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
03 Mar 2026	Chesterfield	3–0	Colchester	League Two
04 Oct 2025	Colchester	6–2	Chesterfield	League Two
04 Mar 2025	Colchester	1–0	Chesterfield	League Two
22 Oct 2024	Chesterfield	1–1	Colchester	League Two
30 Dec 2017	Chesterfield	0–0	Colchester	League Two
12 Sep 2017	Colchester	1–1	Chesterfield	League Two
05 Nov 2016	Colchester	1–2	Chesterfield	FA Cup
16 Feb 2016	Colchester	1–1	Chesterfield	League One
12 Sep 2015	Chesterfield	3–3	Colchester	League One
14 Apr 2015	Chesterfield	6–0	Colchester	League One

📈 Recent Form

Chesterfield

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
10/10	Crawley Town	Away	2–2	D
03/10	Tranmere	Home	4–2	W
26/09	Cheltenham	Away	1–2	L
19/09	York	Home	2–0	W
15/09	Manchester City U21	Home	5–3	W

Colchester

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
10/10	Newport County	Away	0–1	L
26/09	Shrewsbury	Away	2–2	D
22/09	Peterborough	Away	1–3	L
19/09	Cheltenham	Home	1–1	D
12/09	Crewe	Home	1–1	D

📊 Season Comparison — League Two

Chesterfield #7 · 15 pts — Colchester #19 · 10 pts

Chesterfield

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–3D–3L

W 4

D 3

L 3

Played10

Goals scored (avg)1.70

Goals conceded (avg)1.40

Clean sheets2

Failed to score1

Yellow cards20

Red cards0

xG for (avg)1.51

xG against (avg)0.79

Corners for (avg)6.40

Penalties (scored/missed)1/1

Colchester

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–4D–3L

W 2

D 4

L 3

Played9

Goals scored (avg)1.10

Goals conceded (avg)1.40

Clean sheets1

Failed to score2

Yellow cards10

Red cards1

xG for (avg)0.42

xG against (avg)0.50

Corners for (avg)2.90

Penalties (scored/missed)0/1

ChesterfieldColchester

W 4

D 3

L 3

W 2

D 4

L 3

Played

Goals scored (avg)

1.70

1.10

Goals conceded (avg)

1.40

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Yellow cards

Red cards

xG for (avg)

1.51

0.42

xG against (avg)

0.79

0.50

Corners for (avg)

6.40

2.90

Penalties (scored/missed)

1/1

0/1

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Chesterfield

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Colchester

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: League Two predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws