Predictions → England League Two

Crewe vs Rochdale

Next match: Sat, 17 Oct 2026 • 14:00 UTC+3 • Round 11 • Alexandra Stadium • ☀️ 10.8°C, 9 km/h clear

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 1.9 → 1.87 ▼2% 84% 58.2% 1.87 Dafabet 53.3% +4.9 pp
Double Chance 1X 77% 79.7% 1.28 Bet365 77.8% +1.9 pp
BTTS Yes 84% 54.9% 1.67 William Hill 55.7% -0.8 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 83% 53.5% 1.78 Betano 53.9% -0.4 pp
Correct Score 2-1 64% 7.8% 8.75 Betano 5.8% +2 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.1 exp.) Under 9.5 61% 52.9% 1.75 1xBet 53.6% -0.7 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Crewe 2.24 – 1.13 Rochdale · expected total 3.36

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Crewe host Rochdale at the Alexandra Stadium on Saturday with third place in League Two on the line against a side sitting tenth. The Railwaymen have 18 points from 10 games, Rochdale 14 from the same number, so a home win strengthens a promotion push while the visitors are chasing a result to close the gap.

The model likes Crewe's recent body of work: a WWDWD run in their last five, compared with Rochdale's DLWWW. Expected goals tell a similar story, with the hosts creating 1.33 recently against the visitors' 0.77, and the season-long picture is even more one-sided at 2.2371 against 1.1271. No injuries are listed for either squad, so both managers have full hands to play with.

The headline tip is a home win at 58.2 percent probability, priced at 1.87, with confidence marked at 84. If you want a cushion, the double chance 1X lands at 79.7 percent. Both teams to score is rated 54.9 percent at 1.67, and over 2.5 goals sits at 53.5 percent at 1.78. The most likely correct score is 2-1 at 9.84 percent, followed by 2-0 at 8.73 and 3-1 at 7.34. Corners lean under 9.5, with an expected 9.1 and 52.9 percent probability. The value question is whether 1.87 underrates a 58.2 percent shot, and the goal markets look similarly tight against their odds.

The honest caveat: the head-to-head record is a warning. The last five meetings produced 1-1, 1-2, 1-1, 3-3 and 2-2, so Rochdale have consistently frustrated Crewe, and a tight, low-margin game is a real risk.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:09 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Crewe

Form (last 5)
WSwindon Town (A) 1–0 · 10/10/2026WBristol Rovers (H) 3–1 · 03/10/2026DRotherham (A) 1–1 · 26/09/2026WAston Villa U21 (H) 4–1 · 22/09/2026DShrewsbury (H) 1–1 · 19/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.20
Goals conceded (season avg)0.70
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)0.46
xG against (recent avg)0.91
Elo strength rating1542

Rochdale

Form (last 5)
DTranmere (A) 1–1 · 10/10/2026LHuddersfield (A) 0–5 · 06/10/2026WSwindon Town (H) 1–0 · 03/10/2026WFleetwood Town (A) 2–1 · 26/09/2026WOldham (H) 2–0 · 19/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.10
Goals conceded (season avg)1.20
Win streak (best this season)3
xG for (recent avg)0.42
xG against (recent avg)1.50
Elo strength rating1418
CreweRochdale
Goals scored (season avg)
1.20
1.10
Goals conceded (season avg)
0.70
1.20
Win streak (best this season)
2
3
xG for (recent avg)
0.46
0.42
xG against (recent avg)
0.91
1.50
Elo strength rating
1542
1418

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Crewe

Won 2 in a row Unbeaten 9
BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Rochdale

BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
3/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — League Two

Crewe

2nd best defence (0.70 conceded/game) 2nd best BTTS rate (83%) 3rd best clean sheets (4)

Rochdale

3rd best clean sheets (4)

Rank among 24 League Two teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Crewe at home · Rochdale away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Crewe (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–3D–0L
W 2
D 3
Played5
Goals scored (avg)1.60
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets1
Failed to score0

Rochdale (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–2D–2L
W 1
D 2
L 2
Played5
Goals scored (avg)0.60
Goals conceded (avg)1.20
Clean sheets1
Failed to score3
Crewe (home)Rochdale (away)
W 2
D 3
W 1
D 2
L 2
Played
5
5
Goals scored (avg)
1.60
0.60
Goals conceded (avg)
1.00
1.20
Clean sheets
1
1
Failed to score
0
3

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

2–1
7.8%
2–0
6.9%
3–1
5.8%
1–0
5.5%
3–0
5.2%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Crewe 2 wins · 4 draws · Rochdale 3 wins · avg 3.7 goals · BTTS in 6 of 9

2
4
3
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
25 Feb 2023 Crewe 1–1 Rochdale League Two
30 Jul 2022 Rochdale 1–2 Crewe League Two
24 Apr 2021 Crewe 1–1 Rochdale League One
09 Jan 2021 Rochdale 3–3 Crewe League One
16 Feb 2016 Rochdale 2–2 Crewe League One
06 Feb 2016 Crewe 2–0 Rochdale League One
03 Mar 2015 Rochdale 4–0 Crewe League One
02 Sep 2014 Crewe 0–3 Rochdale EFL Trophy
19 Aug 2014 Crewe 2–5 Rochdale League One

📈 Recent Form

Crewe

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Swindon Town Away 1–0 W
03/10 Bristol Rovers Home 3–1 W
26/09 Rotherham Away 1–1 D
22/09 Aston Villa U21 Home 4–1 W
19/09 Shrewsbury Home 1–1 D

Rochdale

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Tranmere Away 1–1 D
06/10 Huddersfield Away 0–5 L
03/10 Swindon Town Home 1–0 W
26/09 Fleetwood Town Away 2–1 W
19/09 Oldham Home 2–0 W

📊 Season Comparison — League Two

Crewe #3 · 18 pts —  Rochdale #10 · 14 pts

Crewe

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–6D–0L
W 4
D 6
Played10
Goals scored (avg)1.20
Goals conceded (avg)0.70
Clean sheets4
Failed to score1
Yellow cards18
Red cards1
xG for (avg)0.46
xG against (avg)0.91
Corners for (avg)5.20
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0

Rochdale

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–2D–4L
W 4
D 2
L 4
Played10
Goals scored (avg)1.10
Goals conceded (avg)1.20
Clean sheets4
Failed to score3
Yellow cards19
Red cards3
xG for (avg)0.42
xG against (avg)1.50
Corners for (avg)3.30
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
CreweRochdale
W 4
D 6
W 4
D 2
L 4
Played
10
10
Goals scored (avg)
1.20
1.10
Goals conceded (avg)
0.70
1.20
Clean sheets
4
4
Failed to score
1
3
Yellow cards
18
19
Red cards
1
3
xG for (avg)
0.46
0.42
xG against (avg)
0.91
1.50
Corners for (avg)
5.20
3.30
Penalties (scored/missed)
1/0
0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Crewe

0-15
2
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
46-60
3
61-75
1
1
76-90
3
scored conceded

Rochdale

2
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
3
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: League Two predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws