Rochdale vs Grimsby

Rochdale host Grimsby at Spotland Stadium in League Two's twelfth round, with the two sides separated by a single point and a single place in the table. Rochdale sit 10th on 14 points from 10 games, Grimsby 11th on 13, so this is a mid-table scrap where the visitors will fancy their chances of leapfrogging their hosts.

The form lines tell very different stories. Rochdale arrive with DLWWW, while Grimsby have lost four of their last five, LLLLW. Yet the underlying numbers muddy that picture: recent expected goals read 0.77 for Rochdale against 2.77 for Grimsby, a striking gap that suggests the visitors are creating far more than results show. Season-long expected goals still lean home at 1.3671 versus 0.8293, and neither side reports injuries.

The model's headline call is an away win at 34.3 percent, priced at 2.11, with confidence of 76. Double chance 12 carries 67 percent, and the draw is rated 27 percent at 60 confidence. Both teams to score is tipped No at 50.4 percent, Under 2.5 goals at 50.8 percent, and Under 9.5 corners at 52.5 percent against an expected 9.3. The correct-score pick is 0-1 at 6.2 percent, with 0-1 the shortest in the score grid at 7.97.

Value may hide in the away win if Grimsby's chance creation is genuine, though the caveat is obvious: a side on four defeats in five rarely converts dominance into points, and Rochdale's own home record and the 2-0 head-to-head win in July 2025 keep this far from safe.