Chorley vs Hereford
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Sat, 07 Nov 2026 • 18:00 UTC+3 • National League North - 16 • Victory Park • ☁️ 8.8°C, 7 km/h overcast
No Best Bet: no eligible value candidate at current conditions.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home | Current price not available | 44.5% | — |
| Double Chance | 12 | Current price not available | 75.5% | — |
| BTTS | Yes | Current price not available | 66.8% · No 33.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Current price not available | 65.4% · Under 34.6% | — |
| Correct Score | 2-1 | Current price not available | 9% | — |
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🧠 Match Preview
Chorley · Home
Chorley's home form is the weak spot in their recent run: they lost 2-3 to Buxton at home and drew 1-1 with Worcester City there, while their lone win came away at Radcliffe. The model still gives them 1.85 expected goals, the higher of the two sides.
Hereford · Away
Hereford failed to score in three of their last five, including home defeats of 0-3 to King's Lynn Town and 0-1 to AFC Telford United. Their only win in that stretch was the 2-1 trip to Macclesfield, and they have no clean sheet in five.
Chorley's H2H Edge Holds
The latest head-to-head is the clearest angle: Chorley beat Hereford 4-2 on 20 Dec 2025, and also won 1-4 at Hereford earlier. Hereford's scoring drought of three failed-to-score games in five makes a home win realistic even with Chorley's mixed home results. The model's 1.85 expected goals for Chorley against Hereford's 1.52 supports a competitive but home-leaning contest. The evidence supports Chorley win.
Published 01 Nov 2026 04:49 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.
⚽ Current model expected goals: Chorley 1.85 – 1.52 Hereford · expected total 3.37
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Chorley
Hereford
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks: National League North
Chorley
No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.
Hereford
Rank among 24 National League North teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Chorley at home · Hereford away, the split that matters for this fixture.
Chorley (home)
Hereford (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Chorley 5 wins · 2 draws · Hereford 3 wins · avg 2.8 goals · BTTS in 6 of 10
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Dec 2025 | Chorley | 4–2 | Hereford | National League - North |
| 23 Aug 2025 | Hereford | 1–4 | Chorley | National League - North |
| 14 Dec 2024 | Hereford | 1–0 | Chorley | National League - North |
| 17 Aug 2024 | Chorley | 1–1 | Hereford | National League - North |
| 09 Mar 2024 | Hereford | 0–1 | Chorley | National League - North |
| 28 Oct 2023 | Chorley | 1–2 | Hereford | National League - North |
| 07 Mar 2023 | Chorley | 2–0 | Hereford | National League - North |
| 06 Dec 2022 | Hereford | 1–1 | Chorley | National League - North |
| 29 Jan 2022 | Chorley | 3–2 | Hereford | National League - North |
| 06 Nov 2021 | Hereford | 1–0 | Chorley | National League - North |
📈 Recent Form
Chorley
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Spennymoor Town | Away | 0–2 | L |
| 27/10 | Radcliffe | Away | 3–0 | W |
| 24/10 | Buxton | Home | 2–3 | L |
| 20/10 | Worcester City | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 17/10 | Worcester City | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 10/10 | AFC Telford United | Home | 2–1 | W |
| 03/10 | Barton Town Old Boys | Away | 4–1 | W |
| 26/09 | Spalding United | Home | 2–1 | W |
| 19/09 | Rylands | Away | 1–0 | W |
| 12/09 | King's Lynn Town | Away | 0–2 | L |
Hereford
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | King's Lynn Town | Home | 0–3 | L |
| 27/10 | AFC Telford United | Home | 0–1 | L |
| 24/10 | Macclesfield | Away | 2–1 | W |
| 10/10 | Hednesford Town | Home | 0–1 | L |
| 26/09 | Bedford Town | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 19/09 | Stafford Rangers | Away | 2–3 | L |
| 12/09 | South Shields | Home | 6–0 | W |
| 08/09 | Harborough Town | Away | 3–0 | W |
| 05/09 | Spennymoor Town | Home | 2–1 | W |
| 31/08 | Southport | Away | 1–0 | W |
📊 Season Comparison: National League North
Chorley #12 · 20 pts · Hereford #4 · 26 pts
Chorley
Hereford
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Chorley
Hereford
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
More: National League North predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws