Predictions β†’ England Premier League

Brentford vs Liverpool

Next match: Sat, 17 Oct 2026 β€’ 14:00 UTC+3 β€’ Round 7 β€’ Brentford Community Stadium β€’ β˜€οΈ 6.2Β°C, 31 km/h clear

PREDICTLIX BEST BET
Double Chance β€” 1X
Model 72.8% Β· Market best price β‰ˆ 66.2% Β· Edge +8.4 pp
Best odds 1.51 1xBet 1.51Bet365 1.50Marathonbet 1.50
Bet this pick β†’
ΒΌ Kelly sizing: 4.9% of bank

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly β€” confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 2.88 β†’ 2.61 β–Ό9% 77% 38.3% 2.61 1xBet 38.6% -0.3 pp
Double Chance 1X 72% 72.8% 1.51 1xBet 64.4% +8.4 pp
BTTS Yes 80% 48.1% 1.50 William Hill 65.8% -17.7 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 81% 48.9% 1.60 Betano 61% -12.1 pp
Correct Score 2-1 63% 7.6% 11.00 Bet365 5% +2.6 pp
Draw (value pick) Draw 57% 26.6% 3.75 Bet365 25.9% +0.7 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10 exp.) Over 9.5 62% 53% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Brentford 1.70 – 1.14 Liverpool Β· expected total 2.84

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Brentford host Liverpool at the Brentford Community Stadium on Saturday, and the table makes for unusual reading: the Bees sit 4th on 10 points from 6, while Liverpool are down in 9th on 9. With both sides separated by a single point, this is a genuine opportunity for the home team to put distance between themselves and a rival.

The model leans toward the home side, giving Brentford a 38.3 percent win probability at odds of 2.61, with a confidence rating of 77. The double chance 1X is rated at 72.8 percent. Brentford's recent form reads DWWDD, and their expected goals figure of 1.7025 reflects real attacking threat, though their recent xG of 1.04 is more modest. Liverpool arrive with LWWDW form and an away expected goals number of 1.1357, backed by a recent xG of 1.4. The injury lists are heavy on both sides, with Brentford missing seven players and Liverpool nine, so squad depth will matter.

For goals, Over 2.5 is priced at 1.6 with a 48.9 percent probability, and both teams to score sits at 48.1 percent at odds of 1.5. The most likely correct score is 2-1 at 9.65, with 1-0 at 8.85 and 2-0 at 8.5. Corners look interesting: Over 9.5 carries a 53 percent probability against an expected 10.

The value may hide in the home win, where the model's 38.3 percent sits above what the 2.61 odds imply. The honest caveat is that 38.3 percent is still a minority outcome, and the draw at 26.6 percent with confidence 57 is a live risk given both teams' tendency to share points.

Updated 13 Oct 2026, 04:08 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Brentford

Form (last 5)
DAston Villa (A) 2–2 Β· 10/10/2026WChelsea (H) 3–0 Β· 18/09/2026WReading (A) 2–1 Β· 15/09/2026DBournemouth (A) 2–2 Β· 12/09/2026DSunderland (H) 1–1 Β· 05/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)2.00
Goals conceded (season avg)1.00
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)0.48
xG against (recent avg)0.77
Elo strength rating1566
Players out7

Liverpool

Form (last 5)
LManchester City (H) 0–3 Β· 11/10/2026WBournemouth (A) 1–0 Β· 20/09/2026WTottenham (H) 3–1 Β· 15/09/2026DFulham (H) 0–0 Β· 12/09/2026WAtletico Madrid (H) 2–1 Β· 09/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.20
Goals conceded (season avg)1.20
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)1.07
xG against (recent avg)0.60
Elo strength rating1619
Players out10
BrentfordLiverpool
LManchester City (H) 0–3 Β· 11/10/2026WBournemouth (A) 1–0 Β· 20/09/2026WTottenham (H) 3–1 Β· 15/09/2026DFulham (H) 0–0 Β· 12/09/2026WAtletico Madrid (H) 2–1 Β· 09/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)
2.00
1.20
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.00
1.20
Win streak (best this season)
1
1
xG for (recent avg)
0.48
1.07
xG against (recent avg)
0.77
0.60
Elo strength rating
1566
1619
Players out
7
10

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Brentford

Unbeaten 10
BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Liverpool

BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
3/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Premier League

Brentford

2nd best BTTS rate (83%)

Liverpool

2nd best clean sheets (3)

Rank among 20 Premier League teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Brentford at home Β· Liverpool away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Brentford (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–1D–0L
W 2
D 1
Played3
Goals scored (avg)2.30
Goals conceded (avg)0.30
Clean sheets2
Failed to score0

Liverpool (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–1D–0L
W 2
D 1
Played3
Goals scored (avg)1.70
Goals conceded (avg)0.70
Clean sheets2
Failed to score0
Brentford (home)Liverpool (away)
W 2
D 1
W 2
D 1
Played
3
3
Goals scored (avg)
2.30
1.70
Goals conceded (avg)
0.30
0.70
Clean sheets
2
2
Failed to score
0
0

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

2–1
7.6%
1–0
7%
2–0
6.7%
3–1
4.3%
3–0
3.8%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Brentford 2 wins Β· 2 draws Β· Liverpool 6 wins Β· avg 3.3 goals Β· BTTS in 5 of 10

2
2
6
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
24 May 2026 Liverpool 1–1 Brentford Premier League
25 Oct 2025 Brentford 3–2 Liverpool Premier League
18 Jan 2025 Brentford 0–2 Liverpool Premier League
25 Aug 2024 Liverpool 2–0 Brentford Premier League
17 Feb 2024 Brentford 1–4 Liverpool Premier League
12 Nov 2023 Liverpool 3–0 Brentford Premier League
06 May 2023 Liverpool 1–0 Brentford Premier League
02 Jan 2023 Brentford 3–1 Liverpool Premier League
16 Jan 2022 Liverpool 3–0 Brentford Premier League
25 Sep 2021 Brentford 3–3 Liverpool Premier League

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Brentford

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Aston Villa Away 2–2 D
18/09 Chelsea Home 3–0 W
15/09 Reading Away 2–1 W
12/09 Bournemouth Away 2–2 D
05/09 Sunderland Home 1–1 D

Liverpool

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
11/10 Manchester City Home 0–3 L
20/09 Bournemouth Away 1–0 W
15/09 Tottenham Home 3–1 W
12/09 Fulham Home 0–0 D
09/09 Atletico Madrid Home 2–1 W

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Premier League

Brentford #4 Β· 10 pts β€”  Liverpool #9 Β· 9 pts

Brentford

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–4D–0L
W 2
D 4
Played6
Goals scored (avg)2.00
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets2
Failed to score0
Yellow cards16
Red cards0
xG for (avg)0.48
xG against (avg)0.77
Corners for (avg)4.40
Penalties (scored/missed)0/1

Liverpool

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–3D–1L
W 2
D 3
L 1
Played6
Goals scored (avg)1.20
Goals conceded (avg)1.20
Clean sheets3
Failed to score2
Yellow cards16
Red cards1
xG for (avg)1.07
xG against (avg)0.60
Corners for (avg)4.50
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0
BrentfordLiverpool
W 2
D 4
W 2
D 3
L 1
Played
6
6
Goals scored (avg)
2.00
1.20
Goals conceded (avg)
1.00
1.20
Clean sheets
2
3
Failed to score
0
2
Yellow cards
16
16
Red cards
0
1
xG for (avg)
0.48
1.07
xG against (avg)
0.77
0.60
Corners for (avg)
4.40
4.50
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/1
1/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Brentford

1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
61-75
1
3
76-90
3
scored conceded

Liverpool

1
0-15
2
1
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
1
76-90
2
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Brentford

  • ❌ A. Milambo β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ S. van den Berg β€” Injury
  • ❌ J. Dasilva β€” Injury
  • ❌ M. Jensen β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ N. Collins β€” Calf Injury
  • ❌ K. Furo β€” Surgery
  • ❌ M. Damsgaard β€” Ankle Injury

Liverpool

  • ❌ C. Bradley β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ H. Ekitike β€” Achilles Tendon Injury
  • ❌ J. Gomez β€” Injury
  • ❌ G. Leoni β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ S. Bajcetic β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ F. Chiesa β€” Back Injury
  • ❌ H. Elliott β€” Coach's decision
  • ❌ C. Gakpo β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ A. Isak β€” Thigh Injury
  • ❌ D. Szoboszlai β€” Hamstring Injury

More: Premier League predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws