Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Sat, 07 Nov 2026 • 22:45 UTC+3 • Round 10 • Parc des Princes • 🌤 5.9°C, 3 km/h mostly clear
Snapshotted at publish: Yes at 1.95 (64.3%, Model EV +25.4%). Prices move constantly, confirm at the bookmaker.
Best Bet selection: highest current Model EV among eligible candidates from 1X2, Double Chance, BTTS, Over/Under 2.5, Corners O/U 9.5 and Correct Score.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home | 1xBet1.16 | 82.2% | -4.6% |
| Double Chance | 1X | William Hill1.03 | 93.1% | -4.1% |
| BTTS | Yes | Bet3651.95 | 66.6% · No 33.4% | +29.9% |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Betano1.30 | 75% · Under 25% | -2.5% |
| Correct Score | 2-1 | Betano11.25 | 8.7% | -2.1% |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.1 exp.) | Over 9.5 | Betano1.91 | 54.3% · Under 45.7% | +3.7% |
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🧠 Match Preview
Paris Saint Germain · Home
Paris Saint Germain have won all five recent matches, scoring 18 goals and failing to score in none, with a recent_xg_for of 2.53. Their model_expected_goals for this fixture is 2.83, the highest figure in the data.
Estac Troyes · Away
Estac Troyes have won once in five, drawing 0-0 at Toulouse and losing 1-3 at home to Lens, with a recent_xg_for of 1.23. They failed to score in two of those five matches.
PSG scoring run meets leaky Troyes
The latest H2H, on 7 May 2023, finished 1-3 to PSG away from home, and the prior meeting was 4-3. Troyes have conceded in four of their last five, including 1-3 to Lens and 0-2 to Marseille, while PSG scored 18 across five wins. That scoring pattern supports a home result even if Troyes find the net once, as in the 2-2 of 8 May 2022. The evidence supports Paris Saint Germain win.
Published 02 Nov 2026 04:49 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.
⚽ Current model expected goals: Paris Saint Germain 2.83 – 1.21 Estac Troyes · expected total 4.05
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Paris Saint Germain
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Paris Saint Germain
Estac Troyes
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks: Ligue 1
Paris Saint Germain
Estac Troyes
Rank among 18 Ligue 1 teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Paris Saint Germain at home · Estac Troyes away, the split that matters for this fixture.
Paris Saint Germain (home)
Estac Troyes (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Estac Troyes 0 wins · 1 draw · Paris Saint Germain 9 wins · avg 4.1 goals · BTTS in 5 of 10
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 May 2023 | Estac Troyes | 1–3 | Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
| 29 Oct 2022 | Paris Saint Germain | 4–3 | Estac Troyes | Ligue 1 |
| 08 May 2022 | Paris Saint Germain | 2–2 | Estac Troyes | Ligue 1 |
| 07 Aug 2021 | Estac Troyes | 1–2 | Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
| 03 Mar 2018 | Estac Troyes | 0–2 | Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
| 29 Nov 2017 | Paris Saint Germain | 2–0 | Estac Troyes | Ligue 1 |
| 13 Mar 2016 | Estac Troyes | 0–9 | Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
| 28 Nov 2015 | Paris Saint Germain | 4–1 | Estac Troyes | Ligue 1 |
| 13 Apr 2013 | Estac Troyes | 0–1 | Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
| 24 Nov 2012 | Paris Saint Germain | 4–0 | Estac Troyes | Ligue 1 |
📈 Recent Form
Paris Saint Germain
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10 | Le Havre | Away | 5–1 | W |
| 26/10 | Lyon | Home | 2–0 | W |
| 20/10 | Barcelona | Home | 4–2 | W |
| 17/10 | Strasbourg | Away | 3–1 | W |
| 14/10 | Manchester City | Away | 4–2 | W |
| 10/10 | Le Mans | Home | 3–1 | W |
| 20/09 | Marseille | Away | 2–1 | W |
| 13/09 | Stade Brestois 29 | Away | 1–0 | W |
| 09/09 | Slovan Bratislava | Home | 6–1 | W |
| 04/09 | Monaco | Home | 1–2 | L |
Estac Troyes
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Le Mans | Home | 2–0 | W |
| 25/10 | Toulouse | Away | 0–0 | D |
| 17/10 | Lens | Home | 1–3 | L |
| 11/10 | Marseille | Home | 0–2 | L |
| 02/10 | Dijon | Away | 2–2 | D |
| 19/09 | Angers | Away | 0–2 | L |
| 13/09 | Lille | Away | 0–2 | L |
| 06/09 | Strasbourg | Home | 2–6 | L |
| 29/08 | Lorient | Away | 2–1 | W |
| 22/08 | Paris FC | Home | 0–0 | D |
📊 Season Comparison: Ligue 1
Paris Saint Germain #1 · 20 pts · Estac Troyes #16 · 8 pts
Paris Saint Germain
Estac Troyes
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Paris Saint Germain
Estac Troyes
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🏥 Injuries & Suspensions
Paris Saint Germain
- ❌ N. Mendes: Suspended (Red Card)
- ❌ O. Dembele: Rest
- ❌ J. Neves: Illness
- ❌ A. Hakimi: Thigh Injury
- ❌ A. Longoni: Injury
- ❌ K. Kvaratskhelia: Knee Injury
- ❌ Marquinhos: Thigh Injury
Squad/transfer status (not counted as absences): I. Zabarnyi (Coach's decision).
⚠️ Status unconfirmed (listed inactive): B. Barcola, I. Mbaye, L. Digne, S. Mayulu, Q. Ndjantou; not counted as confirmed absences.
Estac Troyes
- ❌ I. Boura: Injury
- ❌ A. Fatah: Hamstring Injury
- ❌ Y. Titi: Injury
- ❌ P. Gozzi: Muscle Injury
- ❌ M. Ifnaoui: Calf Injury
- ❌ A. Phliponeau: Knee Injury
- ❌ Y. Kone: Knee Injury
- ❌ A. Ouzenadji: Knee Injury
More: Ligue 1 predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws