Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln
Next match: Sun, 01 Nov 2026 • 14:30 UTC+3 • Round 8 • 🌦 10.9°C, 4 km/h, 0.3mm drizzle
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home | 81% | 48.6% | — | — | — | — |
| Double Chance | 1X | 75% | 76.5% | — | — | — | — |
| BTTS | No | 81% | 49.4% | — | — | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 82% | 50.6% | — | — | — | — |
| Correct Score | 1-0 | 71% | 12% | — | — | — | — |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.7 exp.) | Over 9.5 | 61% | 52.5% | — | — | — | — |
⚽ Model expected goals: Union Berlin 1.36 – 0.79 1. FC Köln · expected total 2.16
🧠 Match Preview
The model leans home. It gives Union a 48.6 percent win probability at 81 confidence, with a 76.5 percent double chance on 1X. The expected goals split is 1.3632 for Union against 0.7924 for Köln, and recent xG is tighter at 1.2 home and 1.18 away, so this is not a blowout forecast. Form reads DWWLL for Union and LWDLD for Köln, neither convincing. Both injury lists are long, eight out for Union including Burke and Friedrich, ten for Köln including Waldschmidt and Skhiri, which supports a scrappy, low-quality game.
That points to the goals markets. Under 2.5 lands at 50.6 percent, and BTTS No at 49.4 percent, both marginal edges rather than strong calls. The correct-score model likes 1-0 at 14.55 percent, with 2-0 at 10.77 and 2-1 at 8.53. Corners tip Over 9.5 with an expected 9.7 and 52.5 percent probability, a thin lean. The honest caveat: these probabilities sit near coin-flip territory, the odds column is empty so no value can be confirmed, and with this many absentees the lineups could shift the picture sharply. Treat the home win as the anchor and the unders as a supporting angle, not a certainty.
Updated 19 Oct 2026, 04:08 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Union Berlin
1. FC Köln
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Union Berlin
1. FC Köln
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks — Bundesliga
Union Berlin
1. FC Köln
Rank among 18 Bundesliga teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Union Berlin at home · 1. FC Köln away — the split that matters for this fixture.
Union Berlin (home)
1. FC Köln (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
1. FC Köln 1 win · 3 draws · Union Berlin 6 wins · avg 2.4 goals · BTTS in 5 of 10
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 May 2026 | Union Berlin | 2–2 | 1. FC Köln | Bundesliga |
| 20 Dec 2025 | 1. FC Köln | 0–1 | Union Berlin | Bundesliga |
| 11 May 2024 | 1. FC Köln | 3–2 | Union Berlin | Bundesliga |
| 20 Dec 2023 | Union Berlin | 2–0 | 1. FC Köln | Bundesliga |
| 04 Mar 2023 | Union Berlin | 0–0 | 1. FC Köln | Bundesliga |
| 11 Sep 2022 | 1. FC Köln | 0–1 | Union Berlin | Bundesliga |
| 01 Apr 2022 | Union Berlin | 1–0 | 1. FC Köln | Bundesliga |
| 07 Nov 2021 | 1. FC Köln | 2–2 | Union Berlin | Bundesliga |
| 13 Mar 2021 | Union Berlin | 2–1 | 1. FC Köln | Bundesliga |
| 22 Nov 2020 | 1. FC Köln | 1–2 | Union Berlin | Bundesliga |
📈 Recent Form
Union Berlin
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Borussia Dortmund | Home | 0–0 | D |
| 10/10 | SV Elversberg | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 26/09 | HNK Rijeka | Away | 1–0 | W |
| 18/09 | Bayern München | Away | 0–7 | L |
| 11/09 | FC Schalke 04 | Home | 1–3 | L |
1. FC Köln
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 11/10 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Home | 2–1 | W |
| 03/10 | FC Viktoria Köln | Away | 2–2 | D |
| 19/09 | Hamburger SV | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 12/09 | Werder Bremen | Home | 1–1 | D |
📊 Season Comparison — Bundesliga
Union Berlin #17 · 5 pts — 1. FC Köln #12 · 7 pts
Union Berlin
1. FC Köln
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Union Berlin
1. FC Köln
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🏥 Injuries & Suspensions
Union Berlin
- ❌ O. Burke — Achilles Tendon Injury
- ❌ M. Friedrich — Injury
- ❌ A. Ilic — Illness
- ❌ A. Markgraf — Knee Injury
- ❌ S. Nsoki — Muscle Injury
- ❌ F. Ronnow — Muscle Injury
- ❌ K. Imeri — Thigh Injury
- ❌ J. Juranovic — Illness
1. FC Köln
- ❌ T. Hubers — Knee Injury
- ❌ S. Sebulonsen — Muscle Injury
- ❌ L. Waldschmidt — Muscle Injury
- ❌ T. Dallinga — Illness
- ❌ S. El Mala — Illness
- ❌ P. Okon-Engstler — Injury
- ❌ R. Ache — Thigh Injury
- ❌ E. Skhiri — Ankle Injury
- ❌ R. van den Berg — Muscle Injury
- ❌ A. Castro-Montes — Muscle Injury
More: Bundesliga predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws