Predictions β†’ Germany Bundesliga

Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund

Next match: Sat, 17 Oct 2026 β€’ 13:30 UTC+3 β€’ Round 6 β€’ 🌀 13.8Β°C, 11 km/h mostly clear

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Away 85% 58.4% 1.73 1xBet 60.1% -1.7 pp
Double Chance 12 71% 72% 1.25 1xBet 78.8% -6.8 pp
BTTS Yes 84% 54% 1.53 William Hill 62.5% -8.5 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 84% 54.5% 1.52 Betano 63.5% -9 pp
Correct Score 1-2 63% 7.3% 8.50 Bet365 6.3% +1 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~11 exp.) Over 9.5 64% 55.1% 1.95 Bet365 49.4% +5.7 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Union Berlin 1.40 – 1.80 Borussia Dortmund Β· expected total 3.20

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Union Berlin sit 16th on 4 points from 5 games, while Borussia Dortmund arrive second on 13. The table already frames this as a mismatch, and the form lines sharpen it: Union have lost three straight (WWLLL), Dortmund are unbeaten across their last five (DWWWW). Recent history is brutal for the hosts too β€” Dortmund won the last meeting 3-0, and two of the previous five head-to-heads finished 6-0 and 3-0 in their favour.

The model leans heavily on that gap. It prices an away win at 58.4% with 85 confidence, available at 1.73, and gives the 1X2 double chance 72%. Expected goals tell a similar story: Dortmund's recent attacking output sits at 2.18 against Union's 1.41, with the away side's match expectation at 1.8033 versus 1.3956 for the hosts. Both teams to score lands at 54% (1.53), Over 2.5 goals at 54.5% (1.52), and corners Over 9.5 at 55.1% with an expected 11. The most likely correct score is 1-2 at 9.29%, part of a 7.3% top-pick cluster that also includes 0-2, 0-1, 1-3 and 0-3.

Where might value hide? The away win at 1.73 against a 58.4% model read is the headline, but the goals markets are thinner edges β€” 54% and 54.5% are close to coin flips. The real caveat is team news: both squads are depleted, with eight Union absentees including Burke and Ronnow, and eleven Dortmund names out such as Schlotterbeck, Can and Bensebaini. That many missing bodies can distort form and xG, so treat the model's confidence with some caution.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:07 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Union Berlin

Form (last 5)
WSV Elversberg (H) 1–0 Β· 10/10/2026WHNK Rijeka (A) 1–0 Β· 26/09/2026LBayern MΓΌnchen (A) 0–7 Β· 18/09/2026LFC Schalke 04 (H) 1–3 Β· 11/09/2026LBayer Leverkusen (A) 0–4 Β· 05/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.00
Goals conceded (season avg)3.40
Win streak (best this season)0
xG for (recent avg)0.82
xG against (recent avg)1.42
Elo strength rating1420
Players out8

Borussia Dortmund

Form (last 5)
DWerder Bremen (H) 2–2 Β· 09/10/2026WVfB Stuttgart (A) 1–0 Β· 19/09/2026WSC Paderborn 07 (H) 3–0 Β· 12/09/2026WVillarreal (H) 3–2 Β· 08/09/2026W1899 Hoffenheim (A) 3–2 Β· 05/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)2.20
Goals conceded (season avg)0.80
Win streak (best this season)4
xG for (recent avg)1.27
xG against (recent avg)0.55
Elo strength rating1713
Players out11
Union BerlinBorussia Dortmund
Goals scored (season avg)
1.00
2.20
Goals conceded (season avg)
3.40
0.80
Win streak (best this season)
0
4
xG for (recent avg)
0.82
1.27
xG against (recent avg)
1.42
0.55
Elo strength rating
1420
1713
Players out
8
11

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Union Berlin

Won 2 in a row
BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Borussia Dortmund

Unbeaten 7
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
5/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
3/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Bundesliga

Union Berlin

2nd worst defence (3.40 conceded/game)

Borussia Dortmund

Best defence (0.80 conceded/game) 3rd best Over 2.5 rate (83%) Best clean sheets (3)

Rank among 18 Bundesliga teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Union Berlin at home Β· Borussia Dortmund away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Union Berlin (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–1D–1L
W 1
D 1
L 1
Played3
Goals scored (avg)1.70
Goals conceded (avg)2.00
Clean sheets1
Failed to score0

Borussia Dortmund (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–0D–0L
W 2
Played2
Goals scored (avg)2.00
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets1
Failed to score0
Union Berlin (home)Borussia Dortmund (away)
W 1
D 1
L 1
W 2
Played
3
2
Goals scored (avg)
1.70
2.00
Goals conceded (avg)
2.00
1.00
Clean sheets
1
1
Failed to score
0
0

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–2
7.3%
0–2
5.2%
0–1
5%
1–3
4.4%
0–3
3.1%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Borussia Dortmund 8 wins Β· 0 draws Β· Union Berlin 2 wins Β· avg 3.7 goals Β· BTTS in 4 of 10

8
2
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
24 Jan 2026 Union Berlin 0–3 Borussia Dortmund Bundesliga
31 Aug 2025 Borussia Dortmund 3–0 Union Berlin Bundesliga
22 Feb 2025 Borussia Dortmund 6–0 Union Berlin Bundesliga
05 Oct 2024 Union Berlin 2–1 Borussia Dortmund Bundesliga
02 Mar 2024 Union Berlin 0–2 Borussia Dortmund Bundesliga
07 Oct 2023 Borussia Dortmund 4–2 Union Berlin Bundesliga
08 Apr 2023 Borussia Dortmund 2–1 Union Berlin Bundesliga
16 Oct 2022 Union Berlin 2–0 Borussia Dortmund Bundesliga
13 Feb 2022 Union Berlin 0–3 Borussia Dortmund Bundesliga
19 Sep 2021 Borussia Dortmund 4–2 Union Berlin Bundesliga

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Union Berlin

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 SV Elversberg Home 1–0 W
26/09 HNK Rijeka Away 1–0 W
18/09 Bayern MΓΌnchen Away 0–7 L
11/09 FC Schalke 04 Home 1–3 L
05/09 Bayer Leverkusen Away 0–4 L

Borussia Dortmund

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
09/10 Werder Bremen Home 2–2 D
19/09 VfB Stuttgart Away 1–0 W
12/09 SC Paderborn 07 Home 3–0 W
08/09 Villarreal Home 3–2 W
05/09 1899 Hoffenheim Away 3–2 W

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Bundesliga

Union Berlin #16 Β· 4 pts β€”  Borussia Dortmund #2 Β· 13 pts

Union Berlin

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–1D–3L
W 1
D 1
L 3
Played5
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)3.40
Clean sheets1
Failed to score2
Yellow cards12
Red cards0
xG for (avg)0.82
xG against (avg)1.42
Corners for (avg)3.60
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Borussia Dortmund

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–1D–0L
W 4
D 1
Played5
Goals scored (avg)2.20
Goals conceded (avg)0.80
Clean sheets3
Failed to score0
Yellow cards12
Red cards1
xG for (avg)1.27
xG against (avg)0.55
Corners for (avg)6.50
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
Union BerlinBorussia Dortmund
W 1
D 1
L 3
W 4
D 1
Played
5
5
Goals scored (avg)
1.00
2.20
Goals conceded (avg)
3.40
0.80
Clean sheets
1
3
Failed to score
2
0
Yellow cards
12
12
Red cards
0
1
xG for (avg)
0.82
1.27
xG against (avg)
1.42
0.55
Corners for (avg)
3.60
6.50
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/0
0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Union Berlin

3
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
31-45
3
46-60
4
61-75
2
76-90
4
scored conceded

Borussia Dortmund

0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
61-75
3
3
76-90
4
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Union Berlin

  • ❌ O. Burke β€” Achilles Tendon Injury
  • ❌ M. Friedrich β€” Injury
  • ❌ A. Ilic β€” Illness
  • ❌ A. Markgraf β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ S. Nsoki β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ F. Ronnow β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ K. Imeri β€” Thigh Injury
  • ❌ J. Juranovic β€” Achilles Tendon Injury

Borussia Dortmund

  • ❌ R. Bensebaini β€” Ribs Injury
  • ❌ E. Can β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ M. Kaba β€” Injury
  • ❌ N. Schlotterbeck β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ S. Inacio β€” Red Card
  • ❌ G. Konstantelias β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ J. Lerma β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ K. Karetsas β€” Health problems
  • ❌ F. Mane β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ C. Chukwuemeka β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ J. Ryerson β€” Ribs Injury

More: Bundesliga predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws