Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg
Next match: Sun, 18 Oct 2026 • 13:30 UTC+3 • Round 6 • BayArena • ⛅ 13.2°C, 14 km/h partly cloudy
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home 1.7 → 1.75 ▲3% | 85% | 60.9% | 1.75 | 1xBet | 58.7% | +2.2 pp |
| Double Chance | 12 | 74% | 75.3% | 1.25 | 1xBet | 78.8% | -3.5 pp |
| BTTS | Yes | 84% | 54.1% | 1.52 | Betano | 63.1% | -9 pp |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 85% | 56.3% | 1.50 | Bet365 | 64.7% | -8.4 pp |
| Correct Score | 2-1 | 63% | 7.2% | 8.75 | Betano | 6.1% | +1.1 pp |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~11.5 exp.) | Over 9.5 | 65% | 56.1% | 1.92 | Bet365 | 49.9% | +6.2 pp |
⚽ Model expected goals: Bayer Leverkusen 2.27 – 1.43 SC Freiburg · expected total 3.70
Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.
🧠 Match Preview
The model leans heavily on Leverkusen's attacking output. Their recent expected goals sit at 2.37 against Freiburg's 2.09, and the projected goal figures of 2.2672 for the hosts and 1.4343 for the away side point to a home-controlled game. Form backs it up: Leverkusen have won four of five (WWWDW), while Freiburg are unbeaten but drawing more than they'd like (DWWWW). Both squads are stretched, with seven Leverkusen names unavailable and five for Freiburg, though the hosts' depth at home has held up.
The headline tip is a home win at 60.9% probability, priced at 1.75 by the bookmakers — a reasonable margin but not a gift. The double chance covering 1 and 2 lands at 75.3%, which is the safer anchor. Over 2.5 goals carries 56.3% at 1.5, and both teams to score sits at 54.1% at 1.52, both offering slim but defensible edges given the expected-goal numbers. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 7.2%, with 3-1 and 2-0 close behind, and corners are projected at 11.5, making over 9.5 a 56.1% play.
The honest caveat: Freiburg are top for a reason and the recent head-to-head includes a 3-3 and a 2-2, so this is no formality. If the visitors sit deep and frustrate, the home-win price of 1.75 could look short.
Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:07 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Bayer Leverkusen
SC Freiburg
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Bayer Leverkusen
SC Freiburg
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks — Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen
SC Freiburg
Rank among 18 Bundesliga teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Bayer Leverkusen at home · SC Freiburg away — the split that matters for this fixture.
Bayer Leverkusen (home)
SC Freiburg (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Bayer Leverkusen 5 wins · 3 draws · SC Freiburg 2 wins · avg 3.9 goals · BTTS in 9 of 10
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Mar 2026 | SC Freiburg | 3–3 | Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga |
| 26 Oct 2025 | Bayer Leverkusen | 2–0 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga |
| 04 May 2025 | SC Freiburg | 2–2 | Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga |
| 21 Dec 2024 | Bayer Leverkusen | 5–1 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga |
| 17 Mar 2024 | SC Freiburg | 2–3 | Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga |
| 29 Oct 2023 | Bayer Leverkusen | 2–1 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga |
| 26 Feb 2023 | SC Freiburg | 1–1 | Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga |
| 03 Sep 2022 | Bayer Leverkusen | 2–3 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga |
| 14 May 2022 | Bayer Leverkusen | 2–1 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga |
| 19 Dec 2021 | SC Freiburg | 2–1 | Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga |
📈 Recent Form
Bayer Leverkusen
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | FSV Mainz 05 | Away | 4–3 | W |
| 20/09 | RB Leipzig | Home | 2–0 | W |
| 16/09 | Celje | Home | 2–0 | W |
| 12/09 | FC Augsburg | Away | 2–2 | D |
| 05/09 | Union Berlin | Home | 4–0 | W |
SC Freiburg
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Away | 2–2 | D |
| 12/09 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Home | 5–0 | W |
| 05/09 | SC Paderborn 07 | Away | 1–0 | W |
| 30/08 | Werder Bremen | Home | 4–1 | W |
| 27/08 | Motherwell | Home | 4–1 | W |
📊 Season Comparison — Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen #4 · 10 pts — SC Freiburg #1 · 13 pts
Bayer Leverkusen
SC Freiburg
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Bayer Leverkusen
SC Freiburg
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🏥 Injuries & Suspensions
Bayer Leverkusen
- ❌ E. Ben Seghir — Thigh Injury
- ❌ M. Culbreath — Injury
- ❌ K. Eichhorn — Illness
- ❌ M. Terrier — Muscle Injury
- ❌ G. Doue — Injury
- ❌ N. Tella — Injury
- ❌ C. Kofane — Muscle Injury
SC Freiburg
- ❌ F. Muslija — Knee Injury
- ❌ P. Osterhage — Muscle Injury
- ❌ R. Yamamoto — Injury
- ❌ B. Ogbus — Injury
- ❌ B. Yilmaz — Knock
More: Bundesliga predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws