VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
Next match: Fri, 23 Oct 2026 • 18:30 UTC+3 • Round 7 • MHPArena • ☀️ 6.7°C, 4 km/h clear
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home | 91% | 74.2% | — | — | — | — |
| Double Chance | 1X | 82% | 85.9% | — | — | — | — |
| BTTS | No | 83% | 52.4% | — | — | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 84% | 55.1% | — | — | — | — |
| Correct Score | 2-0 | 68% | 10.3% | — | — | — | — |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~11.6 exp.) | Over 9.5 | 66% | 56.3% | — | — | — | — |
⚽ Model expected goals: VfB Stuttgart 2.11 – 0.76 Borussia Mönchengladbach · expected total 2.87
Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market.
🧠 Match Preview
Form backs the gap. Stuttgart's last five read WWWLL; Gladbach's read LLLLW. The goal expectation is where this really tilts: the model projects 2.1141 goals for Stuttgart against just 0.7597 for Gladbach, even though recent xG shows Gladbach creating a respectable 1.85 to Stuttgart's 1.7. That tension matters. Both squads are badly depleted — Stuttgart list twelve absentees including C. Fuhrich and D. Zagadou, Gladbach eleven, among them F. Honorat and T. Kleindienst.
The headline tip is a home win at 74.2 percent with confidence of 91, and double chance 1X lands at 85.9 percent. Both teams to score is tipped No at 52.4 percent, while Over 2.5 carries 55.1 percent. The correct-score board favours 2-0 at 12.7 percent, ahead of 1-0 at 11.1 and 2-1 at 9.65. Corners lean Over 9.5, with an expected 11.6 and 56.3 percent. The H2H is mixed — Gladbach won one 1-2 in Feb 2025 — but Stuttgart took the last meeting 0-3 away and thrashed them 4-0 in May 2024.
Value likely hides in the goals markets rather than the outright, where the price will be short. The honest caveat: those eleven Gladbach injuries and Stuttgart's own long list could distort the projected dominance, and a low-scoring, scrappy Friday night is the obvious risk to the Over and correct-score angles.
Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:07 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
VfB Stuttgart
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
VfB Stuttgart
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks — Bundesliga
VfB Stuttgart
No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Rank among 18 Bundesliga teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
VfB Stuttgart at home · Borussia Mönchengladbach away — the split that matters for this fixture.
VfB Stuttgart (home)
Borussia Mönchengladbach (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Borussia Mönchengladbach 3 wins · 0 draws · VfB Stuttgart 6 wins · avg 3.4 goals · BTTS in 6 of 9
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jan 2026 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 0–3 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
| 30 Aug 2025 | VfB Stuttgart | 1–0 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga |
| 01 Feb 2025 | VfB Stuttgart | 1–2 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga |
| 14 Sep 2024 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1–3 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
| 18 May 2024 | VfB Stuttgart | 4–0 | Borussia Monchengladbach | Bundesliga |
| 14 Jan 2024 | Borussia Monchengladbach | 3–1 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
| 29 Apr 2023 | VfB Stuttgart | 2–1 | Borussia Monchengladbach | Bundesliga |
| 04 Nov 2022 | Borussia Monchengladbach | 3–1 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
| 05 Mar 2022 | VfB Stuttgart | 3–2 | Borussia Monchengladbach | Bundesliga |
📈 Recent Form
VfB Stuttgart
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | SC Paderborn 07 | Away | 2–0 | W |
| 01/10 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Home | 5–0 | W |
| 25/09 | 1. FC Heidenheim | Home | 3–0 | W |
| 19/09 | Borussia Dortmund | Home | 0–1 | L |
| 12/09 | 1899 Hoffenheim | Away | 1–2 | L |
Borussia Mönchengladbach
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | FSV Mainz 05 | Home | 3–4 | L |
| 12/09 | SC Freiburg | Away | 0–5 | L |
| 05/09 | SV Elversberg | Home | 3–4 | L |
| 29/08 | RB Leipzig | Away | 0–3 | L |
| 23/08 | Schott Mainz | Away | 5–0 | W |
📊 Season Comparison — Bundesliga
VfB Stuttgart #11 · 6 pts — Borussia Mönchengladbach #18 · 0 pts
VfB Stuttgart
Borussia Mönchengladbach
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
VfB Stuttgart
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🏥 Injuries & Suspensions
VfB Stuttgart
- ❌ J. Arevalo — Back Injury
- ❌ L. Assignon — Shoulder Injury
- ❌ J. Diehl — Muscle Injury
- ❌ C. Fuhrich — Muscle Injury
- ❌ L. Jaquez — Muscle Injury
- ❌ N. Nartey — Injury
- ❌ L. Sauer — Muscle Injury
- ❌ D. Seimen — Thigh Injury
- ❌ D. Zagadou — Muscle Injury
- ❌ T. Tomas — Muscle Injury
- ❌ A. Al Dakhil — Knee Injury
- ❌ M. Herwerth — Injury
Borussia Mönchengladbach
- ❌ J. Castrop — Shoulder Injury
- ❌ F. C. Chiarodia — Muscle Injury
- ❌ T. Cvancara — Groin Injury
- ❌ Y. Konoplya — Knee Injury
- ❌ Z. Uno — Muscle Injury
- ❌ D. Hashioka — Neck Injury
- ❌ E. Leopold — Knee Injury
- ❌ N. Kuhn — Muscle Injury
- ❌ F. Honorat — Muscle Injury
- ❌ K. Itakura — Ankle Injury
- ❌ T. Kleindienst — Injury
More: Bundesliga predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws