SC Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04
Next match: Sun, 11 Oct 2026 • 15:30 UTC+3 • Round 5 • Europa-Park Stadion
🧠 Match Preview
Form points one way: Freiburg's last five read DWWWW, Schalke's DWDLL. The expected goals split is stark — Freiburg are projected at 2.2223 against Schalke's 0.7923, with recent xG of 1.74 and 1.05 respectively. Freiburg's injury list is manageable (F. Muslija, P. Osterhage, R. Yamamoto), but Schalke are missing seven players including E. Hojlund, T. Kalas, K. Karaman and R. Schallenberg. The head-to-head is brutal: Freiburg have won all five of the last meetings, four of them by 4-0 or 0-2 scorelines.
The model gives Freiburg a 72.8 percent win probability at 91 confidence, with double chance 1X at 88.2 percent. Over 2.5 goals lands at 57 percent, BTTS No at 47.3 percent, and the correct-score favourite is 2-0 at 9.9 percent, followed by 1-0 at 10.12 and 2-1 at 9.68. Corners tip Over 9.5 at 51.4 percent with an expected 9.7.
Value likely hides in the double chance and the 2-0 correct score if bookmakers price Freiburg short. The honest caveat: BTTS No at 47.3 percent and Over 2.5 at 57 percent are both thin edges, and Schalke's depleted squad could still spring a low-block surprise.
Updated 22 Sep 2026, 04:06 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home | 91% | 72.8% | — |
| Double Chance | 1X | 83% | 88.2% | — |
| BTTS | No | 80% | 47.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 85% | 57% | — |
| Correct Score | 2-0 | 67% | 9.9% | — |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.7 exp.) | Over 9.5 | 60% | 51.4% | — |
⚽ Model expected goals: SC Freiburg 2.22 – 0.79 FC Schalke 04 · expected total 3.01
Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time.
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
| Factor | FC Schalke 04 | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| Form (last 5) | DSV Elversberg (H) 0–0 · 20/09/2026WUnion Berlin (A) 3–1 · 11/09/2026DBayern München (H) 0–0 · 05/09/2026LFC Augsburg (A) 0–3 · 30/08/2026LReal Madrid (H) 0–3 · 16/08/2026 | DEintracht Frankfurt (A) 2–2 · 19/09/2026WBorussia Mönchengladbach (H) 5–0 · 12/09/2026WSC Paderborn 07 (A) 1–0 · 05/09/2026WWerder Bremen (H) 4–1 · 30/08/2026WMotherwell (H) 4–1 · 27/08/2026 |
| Goals scored (season avg) | 0.8 | 3 |
| Goals conceded (season avg) | 1 | 0.8 |
| Win streak (best this season) | 1 | 3 |
| xG for (recent avg) | 1.05 | 0.93 |
| xG against (recent avg) | 2.73 | 0.36 |
| Elo strength rating | 1378.2 | 1598 |
| Players out | 7 | 3 |
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish — into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
FC Schalke 04
SC Freiburg
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks — Bundesliga
FC Schalke 04
SC Freiburg
Rank among 18 Bundesliga teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
| SC Freiburg (at home) | FC Schalke 04 (away) | |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 2 | 2 |
| Wins–Draws–Losses | 2-0-0 | 1-0-1 |
| Goals scored (avg) | 4.5 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded (avg) | 0.5 | 2 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 1 |
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road — the split that matters for this fixture.
🎯 Most Likely Scorelines
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2–0 | 9.9% |
| 1–0 | 8.2% |
| 2–1 | 7.8% |
| 3–0 | 7.3% |
| 3–1 | 5.8% |
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
FC Schalke 04 2 wins · 2 draws · SC Freiburg 6 wins · avg 2.4 goals · BTTS in 1 of 10
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Apr 2023 | SC Freiburg | 4–0 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga |
| 30 Oct 2022 | FC Schalke 04 | 0–2 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga |
| 17 Apr 2021 | SC Freiburg | 4–0 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga |
| 16 Dec 2020 | FC Schalke 04 | 0–2 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga |
| 27 Jun 2020 | SC Freiburg | 4–0 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga |
| 21 Dec 2019 | FC Schalke 04 | 2–2 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga |
| 16 Feb 2019 | FC Schalke 04 | 0–0 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga |
| 25 Sep 2018 | SC Freiburg | 1–0 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga |
| 31 Mar 2018 | FC Schalke 04 | 2–0 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga |
| 04 Nov 2017 | SC Freiburg | 0–1 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga |
📈 Recent Form
FC Schalke 04
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | SV Elversberg | Home | 0–0 | D |
| 11/09 | Union Berlin | Away | 3–1 | W |
| 05/09 | Bayern München | Home | 0–0 | D |
| 30/08 | FC Augsburg | Away | 0–3 | L |
| 16/08 | Real Madrid | Home | 0–3 | L |
SC Freiburg
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Away | 2–2 | D |
| 12/09 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Home | 5–0 | W |
| 05/09 | SC Paderborn 07 | Away | 1–0 | W |
| 30/08 | Werder Bremen | Home | 4–1 | W |
| 27/08 | Motherwell | Home | 4–1 | W |
📊 Season Comparison — Bundesliga
| FC Schalke 04 | SC Freiburg | |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 11 | 3 |
| Points | 5 | 10 |
| Played | 4 | 4 |
| Wins–Draws–Losses | 1-2-1 | 3-1-0 |
| Goals scored (avg) | 0.8 | 3 |
| Goals conceded (avg) | 1 | 0.8 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 0 |
| Penalties (scored/missed) | 0/0 | 0/0 |
| Yellow cards | 4 | 7 |
| Red cards | 1 | 0 |
| xG for (avg) | 1.05 | 0.93 |
| xG against (avg) | 2.73 | 0.36 |
| Corners for (avg) | 1.3 | 6.3 |
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
FC Schalke 04
SC Freiburg
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🏥 Injuries & Suspensions
FC Schalke 04
- ❌ E. Hojlund — Heel Injury
- ❌ T. Kalas — Lacking Match Fitness
- ❌ K. Karaman — Hip Injury
- ❌ A. Gantenbein — Ankle Injury
- ❌ B. Lasme — Calf Injury
- ❌ R. Schallenberg — Red Card
- ❌ D. Ljubicic — Knee Injury
SC Freiburg
- ❌ F. Muslija — Knee Injury
- ❌ P. Osterhage — Muscle Injury
- ❌ R. Yamamoto — Injury
More: Bundesliga predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws