Genoa vs AC Milan
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Sun, 08 Nov 2026 • 17:00 UTC+3 • Round 11 • Stadio Luigi Ferraris • ☀️ 21.8°C, 2 km/h clear
Snapshotted at publish: Yes at 1.87 (58.6%, Model EV +9.6%). Prices move constantly, confirm at the bookmaker.
Best Bet selection: highest current Model EV among eligible candidates from 1X2, Double Chance, BTTS, Over/Under 2.5, Corners O/U 9.5 and Correct Score.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Away 1.83 → 1.85 ▲1% | 1xBet1.85 | 49.7% | -8.1% |
| Double Chance | X2 | 1xBet1.22 | 75.8% | -7.5% |
| BTTS | Yes | Bet3651.95 | 59.2% · No 40.8% | +15.4% |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 1xBet2.16 | 48.3% · Under 51.7% | +4.3% |
| Correct Score | 1-2 | Betano8.75 | 8.4% | -26.5% |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~8.7 exp.) | Under 9.5 | Current price not available | 55.8% · Over 44.2% | — |
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🧠 Match Preview
Genoa · Home
Genoa have won four of their last five matches, including home wins over Juventus and Fiorentina, but they failed to score in the away defeat to AS Roma. Their recent xG for of 1.29 sits below the model expected goals of 1.43 for this fixture.
AC Milan · Away
AC Milan have scored 10 goals across their last five matches, with 3-1 and 3-2 home wins over Inter and Atalanta. Their recent xG for of 2.02 is the stronger attacking baseline in this matchup.
Milan's H2H edge at Genoa
The latest head-to-head, on 17 May 2026, finished 1-2 to AC Milan at Genoa, and the previous Genoa-hosted meeting also ended 1-2. Milan's 2.02 recent xG for outweighs Genoa's 1.29, supporting an away attacking edge despite Genoa's four wins in five. The 1-1 draw in Milan is the counterweight, yet the venue pattern favors the visitors. The evidence supports AC Milan win.
Published 02 Nov 2026 04:50 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.
⚽ Current model expected goals: Genoa 1.43 – 1.44 AC Milan · expected total 2.87
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Genoa
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Genoa
AC Milan
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks: Serie A
Genoa
AC Milan
Rank among 20 Serie A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Genoa at home · AC Milan away, the split that matters for this fixture.
Genoa (home)
AC Milan (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
AC Milan 6 wins · 3 draws · Genoa 0 wins · avg 2.6 goals · BTTS in 5 of 9
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 May 2026 | Genoa | 1–2 | AC Milan | Serie A |
| 08 Jan 2026 | AC Milan | 1–1 | Genoa | Serie A |
| 05 May 2025 | Genoa | 1–2 | AC Milan | Serie A |
| 15 Dec 2024 | AC Milan | 0–0 | Genoa | Serie A |
| 05 May 2024 | AC Milan | 3–3 | Genoa | Serie A |
| 07 Oct 2023 | Genoa | 0–1 | AC Milan | Serie A |
| 15 Apr 2022 | AC Milan | 2–0 | Genoa | Serie A |
| 01 Dec 2021 | Genoa | 0–3 | AC Milan | Serie A |
| 18 Apr 2021 | AC Milan | 2–1 | Genoa | Serie A |
📈 Recent Form
Genoa
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Lecce | Away | 2–1 | W |
| 28/10 | Juventus | Home | 2–0 | W |
| 25/10 | Venezia | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 17/10 | AS Roma | Away | 0–2 | L |
| 10/10 | Fiorentina | Home | 2–1 | W |
| 02/10 | Rapid | Away | 0–2 | L |
| 20/09 | Parma | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 15/09 | Sudtirol | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 12/09 | Frosinone | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 04/09 | Como | Home | 1–4 | L |
AC Milan
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Inter | Home | 3–1 | W |
| 28/10 | Bologna | Home | 2–4 | L |
| 25/10 | Udinese | Away | 2–0 | W |
| 22/10 | Bournemouth | Away | 0–3 | L |
| 18/10 | Atalanta | Home | 3–2 | W |
| 15/10 | Red Bull Salzburg | Away | 4–0 | W |
| 11/10 | Sassuolo | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 20/09 | Lecce | Home | 3–0 | W |
| 16/09 | Benfica | Home | 0–2 | L |
| 12/09 | Lazio | Away | 2–2 | D |
📊 Season Comparison: Serie A
Genoa #11 · 13 pts · AC Milan #5 · 21 pts
Genoa
AC Milan
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Genoa
AC Milan
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🏥 Injuries & Suspensions
Genoa
- ❌ E. Havel: Thigh Injury
- ❌ H. J. Traore: Muscle Injury
- ❌ L. Venturino: Jumpers Knee
- ❌ J. Vasquez: Suspended (Red Card)
- ❌ Amorim: Ankle Injury
- ❌ L. Colombo: Ankle Injury
- ❌ F. Meichtry: Muscle Injury
- ❌ D. Sow: Injury
- ❌ K. Ehizibue: Muscle Injury
- ❓ M. E. Ellertsson (doubtful): Ankle Injury
⚠️ Status unconfirmed (listed inactive): C. Drameh; not counted as confirmed absences.
AC Milan
- ❌ S. Gimenez: Ankle Injury
- ❌ R. Leao: Muscle Injury
- ❌ M. Gabbia: Ankle Injury
- ❌ A. Saelemaekers: Ankle Injury
- ❌ S. Chukwueze: Hip Injury
- ❌ R. Loftus-Cheek: Thigh Injury
- ❌ M. Gila: Ankle Injury
- ❌ D. Moreira: Thigh Injury
- ❌ A. Rabiot: Calf Injury
Squad/transfer status (not counted as absences): Y. Fofana (Transfer negotiations), F. Tomori (Transfer negotiations).
⚠️ Status unconfirmed (listed inactive): C. Nkunku; not counted as confirmed absences.
More: Serie A predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws