Sassuolo vs Fiorentina
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Mon, 02 Nov 2026 • 20:30 UTC+3 • Round 10 • Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore • ☁️ 10.5°C, 4 km/h overcast
No Best Bet: no eligible value candidate at current conditions.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 10:09 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Draw 3.66 → 3.78 ▲3% | 1xBet3.78 | 26.2% | -1% |
| Double Chance | X2 | 1xBet1.46 | 63.5% | -7.3% |
| BTTS | Yes | Betano1.47 | 54.6% · No 45.4% | -19.7% |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Pinnacle2.54 | 42.3% · Over 57.7% | +7.4% |
| Correct Score | 1-1 | BetVictor7.50 | 13.4% | +0.5% |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~8.5 exp.) | Under 9.5 | Pinnacle1.72 | 57.7% · Over 42.3% | -0.8% |
Bookmaker links on this page: #ad · Play Safe · T&Cs apply · 18+
🧠 Match Preview
Sassuolo · Home
Sassuolo have lost four of their last five, including a 2-6 home defeat to Lazio, and failed to score only once in that run. Their recent xG for of 1.52 sits close to a model expected goals figure of 1.5, so the attacking output has been real even as results slipped.
Fiorentina · Away
Fiorentina are winless in five with two draws, and their most recent outing was a 2-2 home draw with Atalanta. Their recent xG for of 1.51 is similar to Sassuolo's, though their model expected goals of 1.16 is lower.
Draws Frame Both Slumps
The latest head-to-head, on 26 Apr 2026, finished 0-0, and the earlier Sassuolo home meeting ended 3-1. Both teams are winless across five matches: Sassuolo have 0 wins with one draw, Fiorentina two draws. Sassuolo conceded 15 goals in that span, yet their recent xG for of 1.52 and Fiorentina's 1.51 suggest neither side is toothless. A 1-1 draw, the contract's correct score at 13.4%, fits two attacks producing similar historical xG while both struggle to convert leads into wins. The evidence supports Draw.
Published 02 Nov 2026 04:46 UTC+3. This preview is preserved from the previous data snapshot. Analysis and numbers reflect that publication; current model predictions are shown in the table above.
⚽ Current model expected goals: Sassuolo 1.50 – 1.16 Fiorentina · expected total 2.67
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Sassuolo
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Sassuolo
Fiorentina
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks: Serie A
Sassuolo
Fiorentina
Rank among 20 Serie A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Sassuolo at home · Fiorentina away, the split that matters for this fixture.
Sassuolo (home)
Fiorentina (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Fiorentina 3 wins · 3 draws · Sassuolo 4 wins · avg 3.1 goals · BTTS in 8 of 10
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Apr 2026 | Fiorentina | 0–0 | Sassuolo | Serie A |
| 06 Dec 2025 | Sassuolo | 3–1 | Fiorentina | Serie A |
| 28 Apr 2024 | Fiorentina | 5–1 | Sassuolo | Serie A |
| 06 Jan 2024 | Sassuolo | 1–0 | Fiorentina | Serie A |
| 02 Jun 2023 | Sassuolo | 1–3 | Fiorentina | Serie A |
| 07 Jan 2023 | Fiorentina | 2–1 | Sassuolo | Serie A |
| 26 Feb 2022 | Sassuolo | 2–1 | Fiorentina | Serie A |
| 19 Dec 2021 | Fiorentina | 2–2 | Sassuolo | Serie A |
| 17 Apr 2021 | Sassuolo | 3–1 | Fiorentina | Serie A |
| 16 Dec 2020 | Fiorentina | 1–1 | Sassuolo | Serie A |
📈 Recent Form
Sassuolo
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10 | Lazio | Home | 2–6 | L |
| 24/10 | Como | Away | 0–2 | L |
| 16/10 | Frosinone | Away | 2–4 | L |
| 11/10 | AC Milan | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 18/09 | Monza | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 13/09 | Juventus | Home | 3–2 | W |
| 06/09 | Bologna | Away | 2–2 | D |
| 29/08 | Torino | Home | 2–1 | W |
| 23/08 | Atalanta | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 17/08 | Cesena | Home | 3–0 | W |
Fiorentina
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10 | Atalanta | Home | 2–2 | D |
| 25/10 | Inter | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 18/10 | Como | Home | 1–3 | L |
| 10/10 | Genoa | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 20/09 | Napoli | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 15/09 | Pisa | Home | 3–0 | W |
| 11/09 | Venezia | Away | 4–2 | W |
| 05/09 | Torino | Home | 1–2 | L |
| 29/08 | Frosinone | Home | 0–3 | L |
| 24/08 | AS Roma | Away | 0–4 | L |
📊 Season Comparison: Serie A
Sassuolo #15 · 8 pts · Fiorentina #17 · 5 pts
Sassuolo
Fiorentina
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Sassuolo
Fiorentina
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🏥 Injuries & Suspensions
Sassuolo
- ❌ D. Berardi: Ankle Injury
- ❌ A. Pinamonti: Injury
- ❌ I. Koné: Broken Leg
- ❌ C. Volpato: Thigh Problems
- ❌ E. Pieragnolo: Jumpers Knee
- ❌ S. Walukiewicz: Muscle Bruise
- ❌ Fali Candé: Jumpers Knee
- ❌ D. Boloca: Muscle Bruise
- ❌ Y. Paz: Jumpers Knee
- ❌ J. Idzes: Muscle Injury
- ❌ F. Leysen: Knee Injury
- ❌ K. Thorstvedt: Suspended (Red Card)
Fiorentina
- ❌ R. Sottil: Back Injury
- ❌ F. Parisi: Jumpers Knee
- ❌ A. Atta: Abdominal strain
- ❌ L. Ranieri: Leg Injury
- ❌ M. Pongracic: Muscle Injury
Squad/transfer status (not counted as absences): M. Kean (Transfer negotiations).
More: Serie A predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws
Referee: Matteo Marcenaro