Predictions → Italy Serie D - Girone F

L'Aquila vs Montecchio Gallo

This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.

Next match: Sun, 08 Nov 2026 • 16:30 UTC+3 • Group F - 11 • ☁️ 15°C, 4 km/h overcast

No Best Bet: no eligible value candidate at current conditions.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3

MarketTipOddsProbabilityModel EV
Match Result (1X2) Home Current price not available54.7% —
Double Chance 1X Current price not available79.9% —
BTTS Yes Current price not available54.8% · No 45.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Current price not available53.9% · Under 46.1% —
Correct Score 2-1 Current price not available9.9% —

🧠 Match Preview

Model view

Model 1X2 split: L'Aquila 54.7% · Draw 25.2% · Montecchio Gallo 20.1%. Selected outcome: L'Aquila win.

Goals

Model expected goals: L'Aquila 1.82, Montecchio Gallo 1.03, expected total 2.84.

Price check

No current price is available, so model EV cannot be calculated.

Form / H2H

L'Aquila: L-W-W-W-W in their last five matches.
Montecchio Gallo: D-W-L-L-D in their last five matches.
Historical form, not a probability for the next match.

Limitations

Lineups, injuries and late team news can change the outlook. Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

L'Aquila

Form (last 5)
Goals scored (season avg)2.20
Goals conceded (season avg)0.80
Best league winning streak this season5
Elo strength rating1604

Montecchio Gallo

Form (last 5)
Goals scored (season avg)1.10
Goals conceded (season avg)1.10
Best league winning streak this season2
Elo strength rating1412
L'AquilaMontecchio Gallo
Goals scored (season avg)
2.20
1.10
Goals conceded (season avg)
0.80
1.10
Best league winning streak this season
5
2
Elo strength rating
1604
1412

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

L'Aquila

BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
5/6
Scored a goal
4/6
No goals conceded
1/6

Montecchio Gallo

Unbeaten 3
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored a goal
5/6
No goals conceded
1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks: Serie D - Girone F

L'Aquila

2nd best attack (2.20 goals/game, season) Best defence (0.80 conceded/game, season) Best BTTS rate (67%, last 6) Best Over 2.5 rate (83%, last 6) Best clean sheets (5, season)

Montecchio Gallo

Best BTTS rate (67%, last 6)

Rank among 18 Serie D - Girone F teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

L'Aquila at home · Montecchio Gallo away, the split that matters for this fixture.

L'Aquila (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–1D–0L
W 4
D 1
Played5
Goals scored (avg)1.60
Goals conceded (avg)0.60
Clean sheets3
Failed to score1

Montecchio Gallo (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–2D–1L
W 1
D 2
L 1
Played4
Goals scored (avg)0.80
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets2
Failed to score1
L'Aquila (home)Montecchio Gallo (away)
W 4
D 1
W 1
D 2
L 1
Played
5
4
Goals scored (avg)
1.60
0.80
Goals conceded (avg)
0.60
1.00
Clean sheets
3
2
Failed to score
1
1

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome

2–1
9.89%
2–0
9.64%
1–0
9.53%
3–1
5.99%
3–0
5.84%

Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.

📈 Recent Form

L'Aquila

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
01/11 Notaresco Away 0–0 D
28/10 Real Normanna Away 0–6 L
25/10 Foligno Calcio Home 3–2 W
18/10 Recanatese Away 3–2 W
11/10 Santegidiese Home 2–1 W
07/10 Termoli Calcio Home 5–2 W
04/10 Pietralunga Away 3–0 W
27/09 Teramo Home 2–0 W
20/09 Ancona Away 2–2 D
16/09 Atletico Ascoli Home 0–0 D

Montecchio Gallo

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
01/11 Real Giulianova Home 3–0 W
25/10 Maceratese Away 1–1 D
18/10 Angelana Home 3–1 W
11/10 Lanciano FC Away 1–3 L
04/10 Notaresco Home 0–1 L
27/09 Foligno Calcio Home 1–1 D
20/09 Recanatese Away 0–0 D
16/09 Pietralunga Home 2–1 W
12/09 Ancona Away 1–0 W
06/09 Santegidiese Home 1–2 L

📊 Season Comparison: Serie D - Girone F

L'Aquila #2 · 24 pts ·  Montecchio Gallo #7 · 15 pts

L'Aquila

Wins–Draws–Losses7W–3D–0L
W 7
D 3
Played10
Goals scored (avg)2.20
Goals conceded (avg)0.80
Clean sheets5
Failed to score1
Yellow cards0
Red cards0
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Montecchio Gallo

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–3D–3L
W 4
D 3
L 3
Played10
Goals scored (avg)1.10
Goals conceded (avg)1.10
Clean sheets2
Failed to score2
Yellow cards0
Red cards0
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0
L'AquilaMontecchio Gallo
W 7
D 3
W 4
D 3
L 3
Played
10
10
Goals scored (avg)
2.20
1.10
Goals conceded (avg)
0.80
1.10
Clean sheets
5
2
Failed to score
1
2
Yellow cards
0
0
Red cards
0
0
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/0
1/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

L'Aquila

3
0-15
3
16-30
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
8
scored conceded

Montecchio Gallo

0-15
1
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
46-60
1
4
61-75
1
3
76-90
3
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: Serie D - Girone F predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws