Maritimo vs Santa Clara

Maritimo host Santa Clara in Round 10 of the Primeira Liga on Sunday 01 November 2026, and the table already tells a story of two clubs heading in opposite directions. The visitors sit 4th on 18 points from 8 games, while Maritimo are 11th with just 8 points from their 8 outings. Form backs that up emphatically: the hosts arrive on a run of LDLLL, whereas Santa Clara have gone WDWWD.

The model leans on those recent numbers. Maritimo's recent expected goals stand at just 0.65, against Santa Clara's 1.31, and the full-match goal expectations of 1.0703 for the home side versus 1.4653 for the away side point the same way. No injuries are listed for either squad, so there is no obvious disruption to factor in. The head-to-head is mixed and low-scoring, with a 0-0 and a 2-1 among the last five meetings.

The headline tip is an away win at 42.7 percent with a confidence rating of 79, and the double chance X2 is rated at 70.7 percent. Both teams to score comes in at 48.9 percent, while Under 2.5 goals is the favoured total at 48.4 percent. The most likely correct score is 0-1 at 8.2 percent, with 1-2 and 0-2 close behind. Corners lean Under 9.5 at 54.6 percent against an expected 8.4.

The value question is whether the bookmakers price Santa Clara's superiority as generously as the model does, particularly on the double chance. The honest caveat: a 42.7 percent away probability is far from dominant, and Maritimo's home ground plus a tight recent head-to-head record means the draw is a live threat.