Predictions β†’ Scotland Championship

Arbroath vs Raith Rovers

Next match: Sat, 31 Oct 2026 β€’ 15:00 UTC+3 β€’ Round 13 β€’ Gayfield Park

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Away 77% 37.2% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Double Chance 12 70% 69.6% β€” β€” β€” β€”
BTTS Yes 82% 51.5% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 80% 47.9% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Correct Score 1-2 62% 7% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Draw (value pick) Draw 61% 27.1% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Arbroath 1.29 – 1.50 Raith Rovers Β· expected total 2.80

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market.

🧠 Match Preview

Arbroath host Raith Rovers at Gayfield Park on Saturday with the two clubs separated by nine points after ten games. The visitors sit second on 20 points, while the hosts are eighth on 11, so the stakes favour the promotion chasers.

Form points the same direction. Arbroath arrive on a run of L L W L L, whereas Raith have gone W W L D W and look the more reliable side. The model's expected goals split is tight but leans away: 1.2934 for Arbroath against 1.5041 for Raith. Neither squad carries a listed injury, so both managers should have full options.

The headline tip is an away win at 37.2 percent with confidence of 77. The double chance covering the draw and Raith is rated 69.6 percent, and the draw alone sits at 27.1 percent with confidence of 61. Both teams to score is called Yes at 51.5 percent, while Over 2.5 goals lands at 47.9 percent. The correct-score model favours 1-2 at 7 percent, with 0-1 at 7.99 and 0-2 at 6.9 among the leading alternatives.

Value may hide in the double chance if the bookmaker prices Raith short on the outright, and in the goals markets, where the recent head-to-head record is volatile: Raith won 4-0 in September 2026, but Arbroath have taken two of the last five meetings, including a 2-1 and a 2-3. The honest caveat is that a 37.2 percent away probability is far from dominant, and Arbroath's home record plus that 2-1 win in April make the draw a live threat.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:09 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Arbroath

Form (last 5)
LMorton (H) 1–2 Β· 10/10/2026LPartick (A) 0–3 Β· 03/10/2026WQueen's Park (H) 2–1 Β· 25/09/2026LStenhousemuir (A) 0–1 Β· 19/09/2026LRaith Rovers (A) 0–4 Β· 12/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.70
Goals conceded (season avg)1.50
Win streak (best this season)2
Elo strength rating1474

Raith Rovers

Form (last 5)
WQueen's Park (H) 2–0 Β· 10/10/2026WMorton (A) 2–1 Β· 03/10/2026LLivingston (H) 0–2 Β· 25/09/2026DPartick (A) 0–0 Β· 19/09/2026WArbroath (H) 4–0 Β· 12/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.50
Goals conceded (season avg)0.60
Win streak (best this season)2
Elo strength rating1541
ArbroathRaith Rovers
Goals scored (season avg)
0.70
1.50
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.50
0.60
Win streak (best this season)
2
2
Elo strength rating
1474
1541

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Arbroath

Lost 2 in a row
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
3/6
Clean sheets
0/6

Raith Rovers

Won 2 in a row
BTTS
1/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
4/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Championship

Arbroath

3rd best BTTS rate (50%) Best Over 2.5 rate (67%)

Raith Rovers

Best attack (1.50 goals/game) 3rd best defence (0.60 conceded/game) 3rd best clean sheets (5)

Rank among 10 Championship teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Arbroath at home Β· Raith Rovers away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Arbroath (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–2D–1L
W 2
D 2
L 1
Played5
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)0.80
Clean sheets2
Failed to score1

Raith Rovers (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–1D–1L
W 3
D 1
L 1
Played5
Goals scored (avg)1.20
Goals conceded (avg)0.60
Clean sheets2
Failed to score2
Arbroath (home)Raith Rovers (away)
W 2
D 2
L 1
W 3
D 1
L 1
Played
5
5
Goals scored (avg)
1.00
1.20
Goals conceded (avg)
0.80
0.60
Clean sheets
2
2
Failed to score
1
2

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–2
7%
0–1
6.3%
0–2
5.4%
1–3
3.5%
0–3
2.7%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Arbroath 3 wins Β· 3 draws Β· Raith Rovers 4 wins Β· avg 3.4 goals Β· BTTS in 6 of 10

3
3
4
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
12 Sep 2026 Raith Rovers 4–0 Arbroath Championship
18 Apr 2026 Arbroath 2–1 Raith Rovers Championship
10 Jan 2026 Raith Rovers 2–3 Arbroath Championship
22 Nov 2025 Arbroath 0–0 Raith Rovers Championship
27 Sep 2025 Raith Rovers 3–0 Arbroath Championship
03 May 2024 Raith Rovers 5–0 Arbroath Championship
01 Mar 2024 Arbroath 3–2 Raith Rovers Championship
30 Dec 2023 Raith Rovers 2–2 Arbroath Championship
13 Dec 2023 Arbroath 1–2 Raith Rovers Championship
15 Apr 2023 Raith Rovers 1–1 Arbroath Championship

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Arbroath

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Morton Home 1–2 L
03/10 Partick Away 0–3 L
25/09 Queen's Park Home 2–1 W
19/09 Stenhousemuir Away 0–1 L
12/09 Raith Rovers Away 0–4 L

Raith Rovers

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Queen's Park Home 2–0 W
03/10 Morton Away 2–1 W
25/09 Livingston Home 0–2 L
19/09 Partick Away 0–0 D
12/09 Arbroath Home 4–0 W

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Championship

Arbroath #8 Β· 11 pts β€”  Raith Rovers #2 Β· 20 pts

Arbroath

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–2D–5L
W 3
D 2
L 5
Played10
Goals scored (avg)0.70
Goals conceded (avg)1.50
Clean sheets2
Failed to score5
Yellow cards13
Red cards3
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0

Raith Rovers

Wins–Draws–Losses6W–2D–2L
W 6
D 2
L 2
Played10
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)0.60
Clean sheets5
Failed to score3
Yellow cards19
Red cards0
Penalties (scored/missed)3/0
ArbroathRaith Rovers
W 3
D 2
L 5
W 6
D 2
L 2
Played
10
10
Goals scored (avg)
0.70
1.50
Goals conceded (avg)
1.50
0.60
Clean sheets
2
5
Failed to score
5
3
Yellow cards
13
19
Red cards
3
0
Penalties (scored/missed)
1/0
3/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Arbroath

4
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
4
4
61-75
1
76-90
1
scored conceded

Raith Rovers

0-15
5
1
16-30
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
1
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: Championship predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws