Predictions → Scotland Championship

Morton vs Queen's Park

Next match: Sat, 17 Oct 2026 • 14:00 UTC+3 • Round 11 • Cappielow Park • ☀️ 12.7°C, 9 km/h clear

PREDICTLIX BEST BET
Double Chance — 1X
Model 77.6% · Market best price ≈ 65.8% · Edge +13.9 pp
Best odds 1.52 Betano 1.52Betfair 1.50Bet365 1.44
Bet this pick →
¼ Kelly sizing: 8.6% of bank

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly — confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 75% 33.9% 2.63 Betfair 35.8% -1.9 pp
Double Chance 1X 75% 77.6% 1.52 Betano 63.7% +13.9 pp
BTTS No 84% 55.4% 1.91 1xBet 49.5% +5.9 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 86% 58.4% 1.75 Betano 54.3% +4.1 pp
Correct Score 1-0 78% 16.1% 8.00 Bet365 6% +10.1 pp
Draw (value pick) Draw 67% 27.9% 3.30 Betfair 27.9% 0 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Morton 1.06 – 0.60 Queen's Park · expected total 1.66

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Morton host Queen's Park at Cappielow Park on Saturday with both clubs stuck on 4 points and desperate to climb away from the Championship basement. The hosts sit 9th after 10 games, the visitors 10th after 9, so this is a genuine six-pointer even at this early stage.

The model leans toward Morton, but only just. A home win is priced at 33.9% with odds of 2.63, while the draw carries 27.9% at 67 confidence. The form lines are ugly on both sides: Morton have lost four of their last five (WLLLL), Queen's Park have won just one of theirs (LLLLW). Expected goals tell the sharper story, with Morton at 1.0616 and Queen's Park at just 0.6014, which explains why the model expects a low-scoring, cagey affair.

That shapes the best angles. Under 2.5 goals lands at 58.4% and is available at 1.75, while both teams to score is tipped No at 55.4% with odds of 1.91. The double chance 1X is the safest play at 77.6%, and the correct score market points to 1-0 as the single most likely outcome at 16.1%, with 2-0 next at 10.68%. Recent head-to-heads offer a warning for anyone backing goals: the last five meetings produced 2-1, 0-0, 3-2, 2-1 and 0-0, so clean sheets and tight margins are a recurring theme.

The honest caveat is Morton's price. At 2.63 they are only marginal favourites, and a 33.9% win probability means the value sits in the double chance and unders rather than the outright result. With no injuries reported on either side, team news offers no edge, so treat the home win as a small-stake play and build around the low-scoring lean.

Updated 11 Oct 2026, 10:09 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Morton

Form (last 5)
WArbroath (A) 2–1 · 10/10/2026LRaith Rovers (H) 1–2 · 03/10/2026LInverness CT (A) 0–2 · 25/09/2026LDunfermline (H) 0–1 · 19/09/2026LLivingston (H) 1–4 · 11/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.70
Goals conceded (season avg)1.80
Win streak (best this season)0
Elo strength rating1379

Queen's Park

Form (last 5)
LRaith Rovers (A) 0–2 · 10/10/2026LArbroath (A) 1–2 · 25/09/2026LAyr Utd (H) 0–2 · 18/09/2026LDunfermline (A) 0–2 · 12/09/2026WMorton (H) 2–1 · 05/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.40
Goals conceded (season avg)1.70
Win streak (best this season)1
Elo strength rating1419
MortonQueen's Park
Goals scored (season avg)
0.70
0.40
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.80
1.70
Win streak (best this season)
0
1
Elo strength rating
1379
1419

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Morton

BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
0/6

Queen's Park

Lost 4 in a row Winless 4
BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
2/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — Championship

Morton

Worst defence (1.80 conceded/game) Best BTTS rate (67%) Best Over 2.5 rate (67%) Worst clean sheets (0)

Queen's Park

Worst attack (0.40 goals/game) 2nd worst defence (1.70 conceded/game) 2nd worst clean sheets (1)

Rank among 10 Championship teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Morton at home · Queen's Park away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Morton (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–0D–5L
L 5
Played5
Goals scored (avg)0.60
Goals conceded (avg)2.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score2

Queen's Park (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–1D–4L
D 1
L 4
Played5
Goals scored (avg)0.20
Goals conceded (avg)1.60
Clean sheets1
Failed to score4
Morton (home)Queen's Park (away)
L 5
D 1
L 4
Played
5
5
Goals scored (avg)
0.60
0.20
Goals conceded (avg)
2.00
1.60
Clean sheets
0
1
Failed to score
2
4

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
16.1%
2–0
9.1%
2–1
5.5%
3–0
3.2%
3–1
1.9%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Morton 4 wins · 2 draws · Queen's Park 4 wins · avg 2.1 goals · BTTS in 5 of 10

4
2
4
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
05 Sep 2026 Queen's Park 2–1 Morton Championship
18 Apr 2026 Morton 0–0 Queen's Park Championship
21 Feb 2026 Queen's Park 3–2 Morton Championship
05 Dec 2025 Morton 2–1 Queen's Park Championship
13 Sep 2025 Queen's Park 0–0 Morton Championship
22 Mar 2025 Morton 2–1 Queen's Park Championship
25 Jan 2025 Queen's Park 1–2 Morton Championship
29 Oct 2024 Morton 0–1 Queen's Park Championship
14 Sep 2024 Queen's Park 1–0 Morton Championship
30 Mar 2024 Morton 2–0 Queen's Park Championship

📈 Recent Form

Morton

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Arbroath Away 2–1 W
03/10 Raith Rovers Home 1–2 L
25/09 Inverness CT Away 0–2 L
19/09 Dunfermline Home 0–1 L
11/09 Livingston Home 1–4 L

Queen's Park

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Raith Rovers Away 0–2 L
25/09 Arbroath Away 1–2 L
18/09 Ayr Utd Home 0–2 L
12/09 Dunfermline Away 0–2 L
05/09 Morton Home 2–1 W

📊 Season Comparison — Championship

Morton #9 · 4 pts —  Queen's Park #10 · 4 pts

Morton

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–1D–8L
W 1
D 1
L 8
Played10
Goals scored (avg)0.70
Goals conceded (avg)1.80
Clean sheets0
Failed to score4
Yellow cards18
Red cards1
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0

Queen's Park

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–1D–7L
W 1
D 1
L 7
Played9
Goals scored (avg)0.40
Goals conceded (avg)1.70
Clean sheets1
Failed to score6
Yellow cards23
Red cards0
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
MortonQueen's Park
W 1
D 1
L 8
W 1
D 1
L 7
Played
10
9
Goals scored (avg)
0.70
0.40
Goals conceded (avg)
1.80
1.70
Clean sheets
0
1
Failed to score
4
6
Yellow cards
18
23
Red cards
1
0
Penalties (scored/missed)
1/0
0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Morton

0-15
1
4
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
4
46-60
3
3
61-75
1
5
76-90
scored conceded

Queen's Park

2
0-15
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
1
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: Championship predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws