Real Sociedad vs Levante

Real Sociedad host Levante at Anoeta on Sunday with the two clubs separated by seven points and ten places in La Liga. The home side sit 6th on 13 points from 8 games, while Levante are 17th with just 6 points from 7. The standings frame this as a clear favourite-versus-struggler fixture, and the model agrees.

Form is mixed but leans home: Real Sociedad have gone WLWLL across their last five, Levante DLLDW. The expected goals tell a starker story. Real Sociedad carry a home figure of 1.5327 against Levante's away 0.6562, and recent attacking output reads 1.72 versus 1.44. The hosts also have a heavy injury list, with eleven names including J. Gorrotxategi, A. Odriozola and I. Zubeldia, so squad depth is a genuine concern. Levante's four absentees are lighter by comparison.

The headline tip is a home win at 60.5 percent with 85 confidence. Double chance 1X lands at 82.3 percent, the safest angle here. Both teams to score says No at 52.3 percent, and Under 2.5 goals edges it at 50.3 percent, consistent with Levante's low away expected goals. The correct-score model favours 1-0 at 13.4 percent, with 1-0 the top scoreline at 16.06, ahead of 2-0 at 13.17. Corners point Over 9.5 at 55.4 percent with an expected 11.1.

Value likely hides in the unders and the narrow home scorelines rather than the outright, since the win probability is already well priced. The honest caveat: Real Sociedad's eleven injuries could blunt the attack, and Levante's recent 1.44 expected goals suggests they can nick a goal, which would break the BTTS No and Under leans.