Predictions β†’ Usa Major League Soccer

Colorado Rapids vs Minnesota United FC

Next match: Thu, 15 Oct 2026 β€’ 01:30 UTC+3 β€’ Round 29 β€’ Dick's Sporting Goods Park β€’ ☁️ 7.4Β°C, 13 km/h overcast

PREDICTLIX BEST BET
Double Chance β€” 1X
Model 76.8% Β· Market best price β‰ˆ 73.5% Β· Edge +5.4 pp
Best odds 1.36 Betano 1.36William Hill 1.33Marathonbet 1.33
Bet this pick β†’
ΒΌ Kelly sizing: 3.1% of bank

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly β€” confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 81% 47.5% 2.20 Dafabet 46.1% +1.4 pp
Double Chance 1X 75% 76.8% 1.36 Betano 71.4% +5.4 pp
BTTS Yes 81% 50% 1.53 William Hill 61.6% -11.6 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 81% 49.3% 1.62 Pinnacle 59.7% -10.4 pp
Correct Score 1-0 65% 8.7% 10.25 Marathonbet 6.8% +1.9 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~9 exp.) Under 9.5 62% 53.1% 2.00 Bet365 46.7% +6.4 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Colorado Rapids 1.69 – 0.96 Minnesota United FC Β· expected total 2.64

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Colorado host Minnesota at Dick's Sporting Goods Park in a Regular Season round 29 fixture that matters more to the visitors, who sit 14th on 29 points from 27 games and arrive on a five-match losing run (LLLLL). The Rapids are 8th on 36 points from 27 and, while far from flawless, their recent form reads LDLWD. The standings gap and Minnesota's collapse in results give the home side a clear edge in the model's eyes.

The numbers back that up. Colorado's expected goals stand at 1.6869 against Minnesota's 0.957, though the recent xG picture is messier, with the away side posting 2.3 to the home side's 1.56 over their latest outings. History is tight: the last five meetings produced a 0-1 Rapids win in May 2026, a 1-1 draw, a 1-2 Rapids win, a 3-0 Minnesota win and a 3-3 thriller. Both squads are heavily depleted, with long injury lists on either side.

The headline tip is a Home win at 47.5% probability, priced at 2.2, with confidence rated 81. Double chance 1X lands at 76.8%. Both teams to score is a coin-flip at 50% (1.53), while Over 2.5 sits just under even at 49.3% (1.62). The most likely correct score is 1-0 at 8.7%, with 2-0 and 2-1 close behind. Corners lean Under 9.5 at 53.1%, with an expected 9.

The honest risk: a 47.5% home probability at 2.2 offers only slim value, and those injury lists could distort both lineups. Treat the Home win as the anchor, not a banker.

Updated 11 Oct 2026, 20:09 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Colorado Rapids

Form (last 5)
LLos Angeles Galaxy (A) 2–3 Β· 27/09/2026DSeattle Sounders (H) 3–3 Β· 20/09/2026LSt. Louis City (H) 0–3 Β· 17/09/2026WCF Montreal (H) 1–0 Β· 13/09/2026DAustin (A) 1–1 Β· 10/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.40
Goals conceded (season avg)1.40
Win streak (best this season)3
xG for (recent avg)1.22
xG against (recent avg)0.88
Elo strength rating1417
Players out17

Minnesota United FC

Form (last 5)
LSeattle Sounders (A) 1–3 Β· 27/09/2026LLos Angeles Galaxy (H) 2–3 Β· 20/09/2026LSt. Louis City (A) 2–4 Β· 13/09/2026LFC Dallas (H) 1–2 Β· 10/09/2026LPortland Timbers (A) 4–5 Β· 06/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.50
Goals conceded (season avg)1.80
Win streak (best this season)4
xG for (recent avg)1.87
xG against (recent avg)1.79
Elo strength rating1477
Players out13
Colorado RapidsMinnesota United FC
Goals scored (season avg)
1.40
1.50
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.40
1.80
Win streak (best this season)
3
4
xG for (recent avg)
1.22
1.87
xG against (recent avg)
0.88
1.79
Elo strength rating
1417
1477
Players out
17
13

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Colorado Rapids

Winless 3
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Minnesota United FC

Lost 5 in a row Winless 6
BTTS
6/6
Over 2.5
6/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
0/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Major League Soccer

Colorado Rapids

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Minnesota United FC

Best BTTS rate (100%) Best Over 2.5 rate (100%)

Rank among 30 Major League Soccer teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Colorado Rapids at home Β· Minnesota United FC away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Colorado Rapids (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses9W–1D–3L
W 9
D 1
L 3
Played13
Goals scored (avg)1.90
Goals conceded (avg)0.90
Clean sheets7
Failed to score1

Minnesota United FC (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses5W–2D–7L
W 5
D 2
L 7
Played14
Goals scored (avg)1.90
Goals conceded (avg)2.40
Clean sheets1
Failed to score1
Colorado Rapids (home)Minnesota United FC (away)
W 9
D 1
L 3
W 5
D 2
L 7
Played
13
14
Goals scored (avg)
1.90
1.90
Goals conceded (avg)
0.90
2.40
Clean sheets
7
1
Failed to score
1
1

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
8.7%
2–0
8.1%
2–1
7.8%
3–0
4.6%
3–1
4.4%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Colorado Rapids 3 wins Β· 2 draws Β· Minnesota United FC 5 wins Β· avg 3.5 goals Β· BTTS in 7 of 10

3
2
5
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
14 May 2026 Minnesota United FC 0–1 Colorado Rapids Major League Soccer
28 Sep 2025 Colorado Rapids 1–1 Minnesota United FC Major League Soccer
10 Aug 2025 Minnesota United FC 1–2 Colorado Rapids Major League Soccer
29 Sep 2024 Minnesota United FC 3–0 Colorado Rapids Major League Soccer
26 May 2024 Colorado Rapids 3–3 Minnesota United FC Major League Soccer
31 Aug 2023 Minnesota United FC 3–0 Colorado Rapids Major League Soccer
19 Mar 2023 Colorado Rapids 1–2 Minnesota United FC Major League Soccer
07 Aug 2022 Colorado Rapids 4–3 Minnesota United FC Major League Soccer
12 May 2022 Minnesota United FC 2–1 Colorado Rapids US Open Cup
17 Apr 2022 Minnesota United FC 3–1 Colorado Rapids Major League Soccer

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Colorado Rapids

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
27/09 Los Angeles Galaxy Away 2–3 L
20/09 Seattle Sounders Home 3–3 D
17/09 St. Louis City Home 0–3 L
13/09 CF Montreal Home 1–0 W
10/09 Austin Away 1–1 D

Minnesota United FC

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
27/09 Seattle Sounders Away 1–3 L
20/09 Los Angeles Galaxy Home 2–3 L
13/09 St. Louis City Away 2–4 L
10/09 FC Dallas Home 1–2 L
06/09 Portland Timbers Away 4–5 L

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Major League Soccer

Colorado Rapids #8 Β· 37 pts β€”  Minnesota United FC #14 Β· 30 pts

Colorado Rapids

Wins–Draws–Losses11W–4D–13L
W 11
D 4
L 13
Played28
Goals scored (avg)1.40
Goals conceded (avg)1.40
Clean sheets9
Failed to score7
Yellow cards69
Red cards5
xG for (avg)1.22
xG against (avg)0.88
Corners for (avg)4.10
Penalties (scored/missed)3/1

Minnesota United FC

Wins–Draws–Losses7W–9D–12L
W 7
D 9
L 12
Played28
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.80
Clean sheets5
Failed to score5
Yellow cards54
Red cards1
xG for (avg)1.87
xG against (avg)1.79
Corners for (avg)4.50
Penalties (scored/missed)3/1
Colorado RapidsMinnesota United FC
W 11
D 4
L 13
W 7
D 9
L 12
Played
28
28
Goals scored (avg)
1.40
1.50
Goals conceded (avg)
1.40
1.80
Clean sheets
9
5
Failed to score
7
5
Yellow cards
69
54
Red cards
5
1
xG for (avg)
1.22
1.87
xG against (avg)
0.88
1.79
Corners for (avg)
4.10
4.50
Penalties (scored/missed)
3/1
3/1

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Colorado Rapids

3
0-15
6
7
16-30
5
6
31-45
5
2
46-60
8
8
61-75
5
12
76-90
9
scored conceded

Minnesota United FC

10
0-15
4
10
16-30
5
6
31-45
8
8
46-60
6
5
61-75
12
9
76-90
6
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Colorado Rapids

  • ❌ A. Fadal β€” Abdominal strain
  • ❌ Z. Steffen β€” Shoulder Injury
  • ❌ R. Cannon β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ C. Ronan β€” Leg Injury
  • ❌ T. Ku-DiPietro β€” Shoulder Injury
  • ❌ M. Navarro β€” Red Card
  • ❌ J. Travis β€” Red Card
  • ❌ J. Atencio β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ W. Frederick β€” Leg Injury
  • ❌ R. Holding β€” Red Card
  • ❌ H. Ojediran β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ A. Harris β€” Illness
  • ❌ M. Diop β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ K. Stewart-Baynes β€” Leg Injury
  • ❌ Y. Maziz β€” Injury
  • ❌ K. Thompson β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ G. Minoungou β€” International duty

Minnesota United FC

  • ❌ M. Boxall β€” Lower-Body Injury
  • ❌ J. Gressel β€” Toe Injury
  • ❌ W. Trapp β€” Illness
  • ❌ C. Harvey β€” Lower-Body Injury
  • ❌ B. Hlongwane β€” Personal Reasons
  • ❌ J. Diaz β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ K. Yeboah β€” Inactive
  • ❌ N. Romero β€” Lower-Body Injury
  • ❌ N. Triantis β€” Lower-Body Injury
  • ❌ A. Jackson β€” Inactive
  • ❌ K. Chandler β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ J. Pereyra β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ A. Smir β€” International duty
  • ❓ J. Rodriguez (doubtful) β€” Contusion
  • ❓ P. Stroud (doubtful) β€” Illness

More: Major League Soccer predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws